{"id":693461,"date":"2026-06-09T12:32:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T12:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/693461\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T12:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T12:32:12","slug":"six-thoughts-about-the-astros-yordan-alvarez-and-jeremy-pena-as-the-trade-deadline-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/693461\/","title":{"rendered":"Six thoughts about the Astros, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pe\u00f1a as the trade deadline looms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>HOUSTON \u2014 Misery loves company, a cliche the Houston Astros can cling to during this upcoming nine-game stretch. All of their opponents are American League teams who entered Monday with a worse record than Houston\u2019s 30-37 mark.<\/p>\n<p>No better time exists for this injury-ravaged team to build and sustain serious momentum. Since falling 11 games below .500 on May 20, the Astros have won 10 of 16 games. Getting to .500 by the All-Star break may feel far-fetched, but should be an attainable goal.<\/p>\n<p>Jose Altuve\u2019s remarkable recovery from a Grade 2 oblique strain has their lineup as close to full strength as it can be. Yordan Alvarez is atop the American League MVP leaderboard and conjuring Triple Crown conversations. The pitching staff has stabilized. So has chatter around the job statuses of both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada.<\/p>\n<p>As this soft portion of the schedule begins, here are six things I think about the Astros and their path forward.<\/p>\n<p>1. I think the Astros will tout themselves as trade deadline buyers until the bitter end. Even if standings and season-long trends suggest otherwise, this is the only answer that will keep a clubhouse intact and invigorated. Expecting Dana Brown, a general manager in the final year of his contract, to publicly concede defeat during a tenure-defining season is delusional.<\/p>\n<p>Playing in a pedestrian American League affords Brown and the Astros that luxury. So does the impending return of ace Hunter Brown, who will make his fourth minor-league rehab start on Wednesday night for Triple-A Sugar Land. It should be his last before reassuming his role atop the Astros\u2019 rotation.<\/p>\n<p>Presuming Hunter Brown returns sometime during next week\u2019s series against his hometown Detroit Tigers, which begins on June 15, it will give the Astros around 38 games at almost full-strength before the trade deadline.<\/p>\n<p>That stretch could determine myriad things: the extent to which Houston will buy, whether buying is prudent at all or which pieces to dangle in potential selling scenarios. Through it all, the public refrain will remain the same.<\/p>\n<p>2. If the Astros are buyers, I think their biggest need is obvious. The Astros\u2019 outfield began this six-game road trip with a .301 on-base percentage. Only three outfields in franchise history have finished with a lower one: the 1964 Colt .45\u2019s, along with the 2012 and 2013 Astros \u2014 two teams that combined to lose 218 games.<\/p>\n<p>Entering Monday, only three outfields in baseball had produced a lower OPS than Houston\u2019s. Just one, the Miami Marlins, has a higher strikeout rate. Brown has already optioned his one offseason outfield addition, Joey Loperfido, to the minor leagues while cycling through a never-ending carousel of names.<\/p>\n<p>Nine players have started in left field across the Astros\u2019 first 67 games. Six different center fielders have played during that stretch. Cam Smith is a constant in right, but he boasts a .670 OPS after his first 252 plate appearances. Smith\u2019s superb defense is the sole reason Houston\u2019s outfield isn\u2019t lower in wins above replacement leaderboards.<\/p>\n<p>Finding more stability around Smith \u2014 preferably from someone who hits left-handed \u2014 will be Brown\u2019s foremost goal before Aug. 3. It is the same one he broadcast throughout the winter. Not accomplishing it feels like the biggest blemish on an offseason Brown needed to nail.<\/p>\n<p>3. I don\u2019t think Yordan Alvarez will be traded. But, when other teams inquire, it would be malpractice for the Astros not to listen \u2014 even if they maintain their position as buyers.<\/p>\n<p>Alvarez is baseball\u2019s best hitter and is becoming a favorite to win the American League MVP. The prospect haul Houston would receive for him could revitalize its fallow farm system. It would also signal the beginning of a rebuild that owner Jim Crane has vowed will never happen under his watch.<\/p>\n<p>Crane has long maintained that the Astros\u2019 championship window \u201cwill always be open\u201d during his ownership tenure. Trading Alvarez would run counter to this claim. Bear in mind, too, that Alvarez is playing on the second-biggest contract Crane has ever given out.<\/p>\n<p>That fact alone makes any potential trade of Alvarez an ownership-level decision. It\u2019s difficult to envision Crane doing an about-face on the declaration that has come to define his tenure.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-7343353 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GettyImages-2279516386-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Jeremy Pe\u00f1a slides headfirst while scoring a run at Daikin Park.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1597\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      Jeremy Pe\u00f1a is eligible to become a free agent after the 2027 season. (Tim Warner \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n<p>4. I think Jeremy Pe\u00f1a\u2019s future as an Astro is far more cloudy. And, no, it\u2019s not just because this scenario appeared in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7142475\/2026\/03\/25\/astros-predictions-yordan-alvarez-jeremy-pena-tatsuya-imai\/?source=emp_shared_article\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">bold predictions piece<\/a> written before the season.<\/p>\n<p>Pe\u00f1a is perhaps the Astros\u2019 most attractive, realistic trade chip, be it at the Aug. 3 deadline or during the offseason. Houston tried and failed to extend Pe\u00f1a last season. He hired Scott Boras to represent him after negotiations ended.<\/p>\n<p>Boras\u2019 preference is for his players to reach free agency, but both Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr. are proof that Boras\u2019 Astros clients can receive long-term extensions.<\/p>\n<p>In the absence of one for Pe\u00f1a, he will enter this offseason one year away from free agency and in the exact position Kyle Tucker occupied in 2024. Team officials knew they had no chance of re-signing Tucker, so instead of receiving just a compensatory draft pick when he went elsewhere, they traded him to the Chicago Cubs for a prospect and two major-league players.<\/p>\n<p>That same precedent could apply to Pe\u00f1a, who has been worth at least 3.9 wins above replacement according to Baseball Reference in each of his first four major-league seasons.<\/p>\n<p>An Astros freefall before Aug. 3 would make Pe\u00f1a an obvious target for contending teams. Though, given Crane\u2019s resistance to a rebuild, might it behoove Houston to wait until the offseason and expand the market?<\/p>\n<p>Receiving major-league talent in exchange for Pe\u00f1a, as the Astros did for Tucker, is the only obvious way to stave off a teardown. It is doubtful any contender would trade off its active roster in August to acquire Pe\u00f1a. Doing so during the winter is a more realistic possibility.<\/p>\n<p>5. I think Christian V\u00e1zquez has played a pivotal role in Houston\u2019s pitching improvement. His experience, all of it within the American League, has allowed him to adjust plans in-game and guide a teetering pitching staff back to stability.<\/p>\n<p>In 33 games since starter Yainer Diaz injured his oblique and V\u00e1zquez became the primary catcher, Houston\u2019s pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA. It had a 5.75 ERA over the Astros\u2019 first 35 games.<\/p>\n<p>Catchers don\u2019t execute pitches, so heaping all of the credit on V\u00e1zquez is disingenuous. So is using all of this as an indictment on Diaz, who defines the term bat-first catcher, but does not have anything near V\u00e1zquez\u2019s experience. There is a happy medium to be found, even if the disparity between the two catchers seems drastic.<\/p>\n<p>Astros Catching Splits <\/p>\n<p>          CatcherInnings CaughtPitcher ERAOpponent OPS<\/p>\n<p>192.1<\/p>\n<p>5.66<\/p>\n<p>.880<\/p>\n<p>327<\/p>\n<p>4.16<\/p>\n<p>.701<\/p>\n<p>V\u00e1zquez has earned a more prominent role upon Diaz\u2019s return, but the answer won\u2019t be to make V\u00e1zquez the starter and Diaz his backup. V\u00e1zquez is 35 years old and must be monitored as such. He hasn\u2019t started more than 81 games in a season since 2023. He has already started 38 of Houston\u2019s first 68 games.<\/p>\n<p>The risk of overwork \u2014 and diminishing returns \u2014 is real. Diaz is 26 and lacks V\u00e1zquez\u2019s defensive capabilities or veteran presence. But, for a top-heavy lineup in need of length, Diaz offers a more dynamic offensive upside than V\u00e1zquez ever could.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00e1zquez began this road trip with a 91 OPS+ \u2014 11 points above his career average. Consider, though, the 41-point disparity in his batting average (.244) and expected batting average (.203), his 22.9 percent hard-hit rate and a .278 expected slugging percentage paired against the .382 mark he actually has.<\/p>\n<p>Upon Diaz\u2019s return, the Astros should \u2014 and will \u2014 divide the playing time more evenly. Seeing how is straightforward. Manager Joe Espada already anointed V\u00e1zquez as the personal catcher for Tatsuya Imai. It\u2019s difficult to envision Espada interrupting the rhythm V\u00e1zquez has with Spencer Arrighetti, who won American League Pitcher of the Month in May while throwing to him.<\/p>\n<p>Last season, Diaz caught all but four of Hunter Brown\u2019s starts en route to Brown\u2019s third-place finish in Cy Young Award voting. Expect that pairing to continue, too. Who to catch on the other two days \u2014 or three, depending on the state of the rotation \u2014 will be a fascinating decision for Espada.<\/p>\n<p>6. I think Mike Burrows\u2019 runway remains lengthy. Hard to comprehend for someone with the highest ERA of any qualified starter in baseball, but circumstances may keep him cemented in Houston\u2019s rotation.<\/p>\n<p>After Thursday\u2019s off day, the Astros play 26 games in 28 days, the sort of stretch in which both Dana Brown and Espada prefer to deploy a six-man rotation. If, as expected, Hunter Brown returns near the beginning of this gauntlet, he would slot in as the sixth starter.<\/p>\n<p>Six-man rotations leave bullpens shorthanded, meaning length from starters is mandatory. And, if nothing else, Burrows has provided that. He is the only member of Houston\u2019s season-opening rotation to make every one of his 13 scheduled starts. Burrows has thrown a pitch in the sixth inning during eight of them.<\/p>\n<p>Burrows leads the team with 73 1\/3 innings, the 15th-most in the American League. This does not excuse or diminish his 5.77 ERA, but it is something. For a pitching staff that allowed workhorse Framber Valdez to walk in free agency and has missed Brown since early April, the length is welcomed, even if it gets minimized by Burrows\u2019 performances. It is also not guaranteed if Burrows is replaced in the rotation by prospects like Ethan Pecko or Bryce Mayer.<\/p>\n<p>Still, Dana Brown did not trade two touted prospects for someone to slog through five or six shaky innings. That Burrows is here because of that trade \u2014 Brown\u2019s biggest one of the offseason \u2014 may be what is bolstering his security in the starting rotation.<\/p>\n<p>Burrows has allowed a major-league high 17 home runs and has one of the sport\u2019s worst-performing four-seam fastballs. Eleven of the homers have come against it. Hitters are slugging .781 against Burrows\u2019 four-seamer and are averaging a 92.5 mph exit velocity when putting it in play.<\/p>\n<p>Burrows is throwing the four-seamer less than he did last season in Pittsburgh, but it\u2019s clear Houston must further reimagine everything about his arsenal and how he sequences it. Pitching backwards \u2014 using spin or off-speed early in counts before finishing with fastballs \u2014 led to some success last month.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps relying more on Burrows\u2019 changeup, his best pitch, could produce better results. He threw more changeups than four-seamers on Sunday against the A\u2019s, but still surrendered two home runs on the fastball. Varying the locations of his four-seamer may help, as would throwing the two-seam fastball he\u2019s shown 13.8 percent of the time this season.<\/p>\n<p>It is a lot to undertake. Burrows should have the time to tackle it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"HOUSTON \u2014 Misery loves company, a cliche the Houston Astros can cling to during this upcoming nine-game stretch.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":693462,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[373,363,99],"class_list":["post-693461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-houston-astros","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=693461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693461\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/693462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=693461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=693461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=693461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}