{"id":696109,"date":"2026-06-10T18:21:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T18:21:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/696109\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T18:21:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T18:21:12","slug":"justin-sourdif-2025-26-season-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/696109\/","title":{"rendered":"Justin Sourdif: 2025-26 season review"},"content":{"rendered":"

Justin Sourdif<\/a> cost two draft picks, and all he gave in return was a breakout season as a gifted defensive forward.<\/p>\n

By the Numbers<\/p>\n

On-ice percentages<\/p>\n

Isolated Impact \u00a0by HockeyViz<\/p>\n

\"HockeyViz
About this visualization: \u00a0This image by \u00a0Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com<\/a> \u00a0shows how the player has impacted play when on the ice. At the top of the image is the team\u2019s offense (even strength at left, power play at right) and at bottom is the team\u2019s defense (with penalty kill at bottom right). In each case, red\/orange blobs mean teams shoot for more from that location on the ice, and blue\/purple means less. In general, a good player should have red\/orange blobs near the opponent\u2019s net at top, and blue\/purple blobs near their own team\u2019s net at bottom. The distributions in middle show how the player compares to league average at individual finishing, setting up teammates to score, and taking and drawing penalties. The number at center is Synthetic Goals: a catch-all number for the player\u2019s impact.<\/p>\n

Player Card \u00a0by Evolving Hockey<\/p>\n

\"Evolving
About this player card: \u00a0This card from Josh and Luke of \u00a0Evolving Hockey<\/a> \u00a0compares the player to league averages based on their impact on on-ice statistics. GAR means \u201cgoals above replacement,\u201d where \u201creplacement\u201d means an average player called up from the AHL. xGAR is the same figure but assuming league-average goaltending. The numbers at top are the player\u2019s percentile ranks overall and then for offense and defense alone.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Player Overview \u00a0by NHL Edge<\/p>\n

\"NHL
About this visualization: \u00a0The NHL\u2019s advanced statistics program, Edge<\/a>, tracks player and puck movement. The player\u2019s shot speed, skating speed, and skating distance are at top along with percentile rank. At bottom left is a shot location map, and at bottom right is zone time per zone.<\/p>\n

Gratuitous Generative Art by Peter<\/p>\n

Using p5.js, the player\u2019s name is a seed that randomizes a bunch of values in an animated canvas with glitchy effects that should be gradual enough not to mess with people with sensory issues. Not AI. Not all that different from Logo, which I learned in like 1992.<\/p>\n

Peter\u2019s Take<\/p>\n

53<\/p>\n

Percentile among forwards<\/p>\n

Age 24 \u00b7 6\u20190\u2033 \u00b7 195 lbs \u00b7 \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 \u00b7 \u2648\ufe0f<\/p>\n

2025-26 stats<\/p>\n

On January 5, Justin Sourdif scored a hat trick<\/a>. It felt like the grand debut for a player who had been fighting for this opportunity for years. Sourdif played just four NHL games in the prior two seasons, spending most of his time with Florida\u2019s AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers. So I get how it seemed out of left field when GM Chris Patrick traded a second-round pick and sixth-round pick to Florida for the guy. My instant reaction was, \u201cwho?\u201d<\/p>\n

For others, the reaction was<\/a>\u00a0\u201cwhy did the Caps get Sourdif when they already have players X, Y, and Z?\u201d And over the 2025-26 season, the answer revealed itself: Because Sourdif is better than players X, Y, and Z.<\/p>\n

Ostensibly, the plan was to play him with Dowd and Duhaime. But they clocked under 90 minutes together, and then Sourdif played up the lineup when Pierre-Luc Dubois got hurt. On that big night in January, Sourdif was centering McMichael and Leonard. That line outscored opponents 8 to 4 in a wildly unsustainable 100-minute performance. That\u2019s not a workable trio.<\/p>\n

The better line \u2013 and Washington\u2019s best line all season \u2013 was Sourdif with Aliaksei Protas and Tom Wilson. They controlled 61 percent of expected goals and outscored opponents 15 to 5<\/a>. That\u2019s the kind of line you play until the wheels come off.<\/p>\n

Wilson and Protas have to be the ideal linemates for any NHL forward. It\u2019d be hard not to do well with them, but that\u2019s not the critical feature. Wilson and Protas made Sourdif better, and Sourdif made Wilson and Protas better in kind.<\/p>\n

That Sourdif played worse away from that line shouldn\u2019t be a shock: that time was spent mostly with Leonard<\/a> and McMichael<\/a>, whose flaws we discussed just last week.<\/p>\n

If we spend a little extra time isolating Sourdif\u2019s performance from his context, then \u2013 by every measurement we have \u2013 Sourdif is a very good defensive player. He ranked first among Caps forwards in the defense compartment of Evolving Hockey\u2019s goals-above-replacement with a plus-4.2 \u2013 somewhere just above the 90th percentile league-wide. The Caps held opponent offense to eleven percentage points below league average when he was on the ice, according to HockeyViz. And opponents scored 1.65 goals per hour against him, better than 347 out of 351 NHL forwards. (Sourdif owes a lot to Logan Thompson for that one.)<\/p>\n

In hindsight, it was a genius trade by Chris Patrick\u2019s team.<\/p>\n

I kind of doubt Sourdif\u2019s fated position is in Washington\u2019s top six. Feels more likely he\u2019ll be the heart of a third line, and every signal we have suggests he\u2019ll be excellent there. Not bad for a couple draft picks.<\/p>\n

Sourdif on RMNB<\/p>\n

Justin Sourdif grew up a Capitals fan. Now, he\u2019s Alex Ovechkin\u2019s teammate: \u2018It\u2019s unreal\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Justin Sourdif notches four career firsts after scoring twice from the bakery against Rangers<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Justin Sourdif becomes first Capitals rookie to record a hat trick since Alex Ovechkin did so against the Ducks in 2006<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\"Justin\ud83d\udcf8: Washington Capitals<\/p>\n

Your Turn<\/p>\n

Will we all come around on Sourdif next year or will it be more of the vive la sourdiff\u00e9rence?\u00a0<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcca<\/p>\n

This story would not be possible without<\/p>\n

Please consider joining us in supporting them.<\/p>\n

Read More Player Reviews<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Justin Sourdif cost two draft picks, and all he gave in return was a breakout season as a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":696110,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,99],"class_list":["post-696109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/696109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=696109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/696109\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/696110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=696109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=696109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=696109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}