![\"Western](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/WesternU-Tier1-Medical-1400-x-230-updated.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe story is more complicated, however.<\/p>\n
To explain the complications and see a clearer picture of the economy, we\u2019ll examine year-over-year job change and employment in some major industries. Also, we\u2019ll look at labor force participation because, as a measure of labor supply, it helps to explain employment and unemployment trends.<\/p>\n
But first, let\u2019s analyze job growth.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Table-for-June-2026-column.png\")
Job gains between May 2023 and April 2026. (PAMELA FERRARA\/For Salem Reporter)<\/p>\n
Overall, there\u2019s been job growth in the Salem Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA, Marion and Polk counties combined) over the last three years, unlike the Portland and Eugene-Springfield MSAs and the state as a whole. Salem has added 9,000 jobs from April 2023 to April 2026, a 5% increase \u2013 but largely due to one industry as we\u2019ll see. The Eugene and Portland MSAs lost jobs over this time period, as did the state.<\/p>\n
Two industries have added jobs to the Salem area economy: transportation and warehousing, and healthcare. <\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Graph-one.png\")
Employment change among industries in Oregon and Salem between April 2023 and April 2026. (PAMELA FERRARA\/For Salem Reporter)<\/p>\n
The standout is transportation and warehousing, with huge growth over the last several years, but the explanation is easy \u2013 it\u2019s the Amazon warehouse that opened off Interstate 5 near Woodburn, employing several thousand people. Without this explosive add-on of jobs, Salem\u2019s employment growth would likely have been close to zero over the last several years.<\/p>\n
Salem area healthcare and social assistance employment grew nearly 20% over the last three years. It is the only industry growing state-wide (with the exception of transportation and warehousing, likely affected by Salem\u2019s huge growth in this industry). In fact, healthcare is the only industry growing nationwide<\/a> as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n Salem manufacturing added a handful of jobs over the year (100 jobs out of a total of 11,300) and these were in food manufacturing. Durable goods manufacturing, diversified in the Salem area, has seen employment hold steady over the last several years.\u00a0<\/p>\n Now for the losses.\u00a0<\/p>\n Construction employment has declined 4%, losing 800 jobs (out of 12,500) over the last year. Employers are having difficulty hiring workers and at least part of the reason for that is a public policy choice. According to the national Association of General Contractors<\/a> and other experts, federal immigration enforcement efforts have had an impact on employment in one third of all construction firms.<\/p>\n Retail trade had job losses in the Salem MSA and the state as a whole, a trend exacerbated by the pandemic and not showing signs of letting up.<\/p>\n Leisure and hospitality employment in Salem has fluctuated up and down over the last few years. Employment in April was at the same level as three years ago, 15,900 jobs. Oregon lost two percent of its leisure and hospitality jobs over this time period.<\/p>\n Two industries warrant further explanation: healthcare, and leisure and hospitality.\u00a0<\/p>\n Employment in healthcare and leisure and hospitality combined comprise more than one-third of Salem MSA\u2019s private sector jobs, and both were hugely affected by the pandemic. The Willamette Workforce Partnership (WWP \u2013 the local workforce board and sponsor of this column) is currently implementing workforce assistance efforts in each of these industries.<\/p>\n Although the Salem healthcare industry has experienced growth over the last three years, the industry has not really recovered from the pandemic. High stress levels, burnout and frequent turnover are reported<\/a> among many types of healthcare workers.<\/p>\n WWP is working with the Willamette Health Council to respond to these challenges. The Willamette Health Council is the community governance body for\u00a0PacificSource Community Solutions, Marion County and Polk County Coordinated Care Organization (Marion-Polk CCO).<\/a>\u00a0This cooperation will produce a plan to aid healthcare industry employers in creating healthier workplaces and promoting improved employee recruitment and retention. The work is currently in the information-gathering stage.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Leisure and hospitality industry employment, although recovered from losing half its jobs in the early months of Covid, is described by an industry staffing report<\/a> as being in a state of \u201con-going instability\u201d with turnover rates four times those of all jobs.\u00a0<\/p>\n WWP, recognizing the importance of this industry to the Mid-Valley, launched a \u201csector initiative\u201d last March, beginning in neighboring Yamhill County. Industry employers came together at an initial meeting and, with the assistance of workforce board staff, will focus on employee recruitment and retention strategies and creating career pathways to help build a talent pipeline.<\/p>\n Turning from employment to unemployment, the first item to note is that even with Salem\u2019s moderate April unemployment rate of 4.9%, 11,000 residents of Marion and Polk counties were unemployed and looking for work. Add the unemployed to those working, and the result is the number of those participating in the labor force. Divide this by the working age population, and express the ratio as a percentage, and the result is the labor force participation rate, at 62% (the most recently published for Oregon).\u00a0<\/p>\n Labor force trends are a concern. Labor force participation has been on a slow downward trajectory since the late 1990s, in Salem, Oregon and the U.S. <\/p>\n Analyzing labor force participation by age<\/a> highlights important subtleties. Much of the decline in the last 25 years has occurred in the age cohort 16 to 24. The population in that age group is shrinking<\/a> and more are going to college. But the percentage of those aged 16-24 not working and not in school<\/a> is worryingly large.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Those individuals over age 65 have increased their labor force participation, but the numbers are small. And, so far, participation by prime-age workers age 25-54 has held steady. But it is likely that the size of the native-born prime age workforce<\/a> will shrink over the next decades, affecting labor supply and ultimately economic growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n In addition to sharing in these nation-wide trends, Oregon experienced a year-over-year population decline in 2022, and the natural rate of growth \u2013 births minus deaths \u2013\u00a0 continues to decline<\/a>. All this contributes to slow labor force growth and slow job growth.<\/p>\n We shouldn\u2019t leave this discussion without a mention of inflation. It\u2019s up from 2.4% to 3.8%<\/a> over the year and experts predict it will go higher.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The price of gas is the major culprit, but some popular food items have also soared in price (see table 7 in the above link for price increases in individual food items). Food overall is up 3.2% over the year, but meats are up 9%, fish 6.5%, fresh vegetables up 14%, and coffee up 18%.\u00a0<\/p>\n To summarize \u2013 we\u2019re seeing job growth in Salem in two industries, and job losses elsewhere, a moderate unemployment rate that\u2019s been stable for months, and inflation starting to heat up.<\/p>\n Put all this into the context of what the economy has weathered over the last year and a half: threats of huge tariff increases; immigration policy that, according to some, has impacted labor supply; the longest government shutdown in history; and a war with Iran affecting the price of oil and eventually everything else.<\/p>\n Economic forecasting has to be daunting in this environment. The economists of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, optimistic in the February forecast<\/a> (before the Iran war), now see the war and its impact on the price of oil as a game-changer (in the May forecast<\/a>). Still, they don\u2019t see a recession on the horizon.\u00a0<\/p>\n Where will the economy be in a few months\u2019 time? Will there be more job losses or a return to growth? Only time will tell.<\/p>\n Pam Ferrara of the Willamette Workforce Partnership continues a regular column examining local economic issues. She may be contacted at [email\u00a0protected]<\/a><\/p>\n STORY TIP OR IDEA?\u00a0Send an email to Salem Reporter\u2019s news team:\u00a0[email\u00a0protected]<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Graph-two-June-2026-column.png\")
A graph showing Oregon Labor Force Participation from 1976 to current day. (PAMELA FERRARA\/For Salem Reporter)<\/p>\n
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