Welcome to our live coverage of today’s RBA interest rate decision. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35%. Stay tuned for reactions from economists and updates live from the press conference following the announcement.<\/p>\n
Jump to key updates<\/p>\n
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RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Picture: Getty<\/p>\n
Thank you for joining us for today\u2019s cash rate decision<\/p>\n
4:30 pm<\/p>\n
We\u2019re wrapping up our coverage of today\u2019s RBA monetary policy board cash rate decision, so thank you for joining us. To recap, the board has left the cash rate on hold at 4.35%.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s the first easing Aussies households have felt in close to a year and comes after three consecutive rate hikes in February, March and May.<\/p>\n
In the media press conference following the announcement, governor Michele Bullock said the bank needs time to assess how earlier rate hikes will flow through to the economy. It will also look to assess the global economic impact of a peace deal the US and Iran after four months of war.<\/p>\n
The next cash rate decision will be on 11 August. Before then, further inflation data will shed light on how the board might decide to move. Keep up to date with all the latest news on realestate.com.au and Mortgage Choice until then, including regular outlooks and analysis from our in-house team of economists.<\/p>\n
RBA: Australia can\u2019t have a good economy without low inflation<\/p>\n
4:13 pm<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says Australia is in \u201ca better position\u201d than it was at the start of the year, but acknowledged slow economic growth will be vital to keep inflation from spiraling again.<\/p>\n
\u201cUnless we have low and stable inflation, we\u2019re not going to be able to have an economy with a good level of employment that grows as well as it can,\u201d she said in her post-rate hold press conference this afternoon. \u201cWe estimate the economy can only grow by about 2% \u2013 much stronger growth than that is going to cause inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ms Bullock said Aussies should not be surprised if economic growth is slow while it remains constrained by the supply side of the economy, adding the board does not expect negative quarterly growth that could ignite recession fears.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019ve got to expect a slowing in the economy and when people see it, they shouldn\u2019t be alarmed, that\u2019s what has to happen to bring inflation down,\u201d she said. \u201cUnless we can get it down, ultimately it will lead to higher unemployment.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran War recovery will take a long time, RBA says<\/p>\n
3:58 pm<\/p>\n
Australia\u2019s economic recovery from the ongoing effects of the Iran War will take an extended period of time, with extended price pressures expected to continue for the rest of the year, the RBA has said.<\/p>\n
Responding to media questioning about the Middle East peace deal and the potential re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz this week, Ms Bullock warned risks for Australians are still present.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough oil prices have eased in recent weeks, they remain high,\u201d she said. \u201cWe also had an inflation before the Strait of Hormuz and that supercharged things. We still need to ensure that inflation problem we had prior to the conflict is addressed, as that is really what the recent tightening has been about.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the conflict does end and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened this should support the flow of commodities and lower prices, but this could take some time and an orderly resolution is still not assured.\u201d<\/p>\n
RBA governor warns not to rule out more hikes<\/p>\n
3:44 pm<\/p>\n
Governor Michele Bullock has warned Australians not to expect that today\u2019s cash rate hold means the bank\u2019s tightening cycles is over.<\/p>\n
Addressing the media following the bank\u2019s decision to hold the rate at 4.35% today, Ms Bullock said the bank will continue to work meeting-to-meeting, even if conflict in the Middle East is resolved imminently.<\/p>\n
\u201cI want to be very clear that inflation remains too high,\u201d she said. \u201cToday\u2019s decision does not rule out further tightening in monetary policy if that is what is required to bring inflation down. I understand this is a difficult period for households and that\u2019s why its so important we get on top of inflation now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ms Bullock continued: \u201cThe cash rate has been increased by 75 basis points by the start of the year. These increases are tough for households with mortgages who are facing high inflation, but they are also necessary to slow demand.\u201d<\/p>\n
RBA governor set for media grilling<\/p>\n
3:31 pm<\/p>\n
Governor Michele Bullock will appear shortly before journalists to provide a post-decision review of the Reserve Bank board\u2019s decision to leave keep the cash rate on hold today despite rising inflation and continued price pressures across the nation.<\/p>\n
In her comments, Ms Bullock is expected to highlight the continuing uncertainty around the long-term effects of the Middle East crisis and the mounting pressure on how economic conditions are evolving for Australia. Discussion around the potential risks of a recession are also expected, following recent confirmation the economy is continuing to slow.<\/p>\n
Media attention will be on the bank\u2019s revised outlook, with homeowners and borrowers keen to understand how policymakers are assessing inflation risks and the broader economic trajectory.<\/p>\n
Reporters are likely to question the likelihood and impact of further tightening later in the year, the board\u2019s focus on addressing rising unemployment and the most recent forecasts for headline and underlying inflation.<\/p>\n
Read more: RBA warns Middle East pressures are harming housing market<\/a><\/p>\n Interest rate hold a clear decision for RBA<\/p>\n 3:16 pm<\/p>\n A statement released this afternoon by the RBA shows the decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was unanimous among the monetary policy board\u2019s nine members. It\u2019s a positive milestone for the board, who have not held a shared view on the path for interest rates since February.<\/p>\n \u201cThe board judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses the response to previous interest rate rises and the impact of the oil supply disruption,\u201d the statement read.<\/p>\n As the board prepares to assess how negotiations on the end of the Iran War play out this week, the statement drives home its ongoing messaging around the need for demand to slow.<\/p>\n The statement reiterates that it is vital high inflation \u201cdoes not become embedded\u201d after high oil prices pass through Australia\u2019s economy, adding: \u201cTo achieve this, growth in demand needs to slow to reduce capacity pressures and help bring inflation back to target\u201d.<\/p>\n RBA: Inflation could be lower than we thought<\/p>\n 2:59 pm<\/p>\n The Reserve Bank has confirmed it has reassessed its forecasts ahead of the likely end to the Iran War, as officials from the United States and Iran prepare for an historic meeting in Switzerland this Friday to sign a peace agreement.<\/p>\n In a statement released alongside its decision to hold the cash rate steady this afternoon, the bank\u2019s board said there are \u201cplausible scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than envisaged under the May baseline forecasts\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cResolution of the conflict in the Middle East is at an early stage,\u201d the statement read. \u201cThere continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n The bank added it expected global oil supply issues to \u201ctake some time to resolve\u201d, meaning pressure on inflation will continue to stay high, as will the possibility of low growth in Australia and among its key trading partners.<\/p>\n Turning point for interest rates<\/p>\n 2:43 pm<\/p>\n Today\u2019s decision from the RBA to keep rates on pause represents an important turning point, marking the first rate hold since 2025.<\/p>\n Aussies have felt the sting of three rate rises in 13 weeks \u2013 moves that have pushed minimum monthly mortgage repayments up around $80 a month on a $500,000 loan.<\/p>\n With the cash rate set to remain at 4.35% until at least August, households can expect a more stable winter price-wise, while the RBA has time to assess the impact of Iran War negotiations on the global economy, Australia\u2019s economy, and the domestic labour market.<\/p>\n The \u2018hold\u2019 decision follows a turbulent 14 months for households, which has included three rate cuts followed by three rate hikes but may not be the last of the RBA\u2019s tightening. Westpac economists expected the bank to pass through one more rate rise in August before a prolonged period without any changes. ANZ, NAB and CBA are expecting the RBA to hold steady through until next year.<\/p>\n RBA holds the cash rate at 4.35%<\/p>\n 2:30 pm<\/p>\n The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate on hold in a move that will keep it at 4.35% until at least August.<\/p>\n It\u2019s welcome relief for borrowers, with markets having expected Aussies would avoid a fourth consecutive rate hike despite rising inflation and uncertainty leading up to peace negotiations in the Middle East. Cost of living pressures from the associated market volatility will be mitigated by the rate hold for now, providing households with some much-needed breathing room.<\/p>\n This was the board\u2019s fourth meeting for 2026 and its final cash rate decision for the 2025-26 financial year. The next decision on the cash rate is set for 11 August.<\/p>\n The RBA board\u2019s statement to accompany its hold decision will be published shortly. Context around the board\u2019s decision will be included along with the board\u2019s latest views on how inflation, growth, and labour market conditions are faring and expected to settle if the Iran War ends imminently.<\/p>\n Markets expecting RBA to hold interest rates<\/p>\n 2:14 pm<\/p>\n Market expectations for a rate hold have been consistent over the last few weeks, with the latest data from the Australian Stock Exchange showing a 100% expectation for a hold as of Friday. If the cash rate is left unchanged, it will mark the RBA\u2019s first hold decision of 2026.<\/p>\n While some experts across the industry are still expecting more tightening from the bank to coincide with rising inflation, market forecasts generally have remained almost exclusively forecasting a hold decision.<\/p>\n Inflation remains high and is expected to peak this month, before returning slowly to within the RBA\u2019s 2-3% target range by late 2027. Though high, the trimmed mean inflation number \u2013 which strips out fuel price volatility in its calculation \u2013 has held close to stable all year, sitting at either 3.3% or 3.4%.<\/p>\n The RBA Rate Indicator calculates the probability of a rate change using market-determined pricing from the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures.<\/p>\n Read more: Why this pocket of the property market remains \u2018resilient\u2019 amid rate hikes<\/a><\/p>\n Slowing economy could prevent interest rate hike<\/p>\n 2:05 pm<\/p>\n Aussies are in line for a much-needed pause to rate hikes today, with weaker than expected economic growth likely to factor majorly into the RBA\u2019s decision making.<\/p>\n Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at the start of the month confirmed the economy grew even more slowly in the first quarter of the year than it did between October and December 2025. Australia\u2019s gross domestic product rose 0.3% in the three months to March, meaning the economy is growing slightly under economist expectations at 2.5%.<\/p>\n With high inflation the new norm in Australia once again, Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith warned the slow growth would be \u201cuncomfortable\u201d for policymakers as households continue to struggle with cost-of-living pressures.<\/p>\n “The economy is cooling, but not in a way that suggests inflation will fall neatly back to target,\u201d he warned. \u201cAustralia is still growing, but the quality of growth has deteriorated.<\/p>\n Read more: Slowing economy softens June rate hike chances<\/a><\/p>\n RBA governor Bullock brushes off woes<\/p>\n 1:49 pm<\/p>\n While Aussies aren\u2019t expected to be hit with another rate hike today, RBA governor Michele Bullock is continuing to toe a concerning line of messaging: rate rises could still be around the corner, and the bank will not be shying away from hard decisions.<\/p>\n Ms Bullock reiterated her views at a scheduled appearance in front of the Senate Standing Committee on Economics earlier this month, warning the bank\u2019s recent rate hikes won\u2019t help bring inflation down in Australia until the Iran War formally ends.<\/p>\n \u201cInflation is too high, and the board will do what it considers necessary,\u201d Ms Bullock told the committee. \u201cThe outlook is highly uncertain.\u201d<\/p>\n The governor is expecting it will take one to two years for the three rate hikes to fully flow through the economy and has continued to flag the challenges the bank is having with forecast accuracy as international pressures intensify.<\/p>\n Read more: RBA sounds alarm on rates while dismissing stagflation risks<\/a><\/p>\n Australia\u2019s four big banks expecting a hold on rates<\/p>\n 1:32 pm<\/p>\n All four of Australia\u2019s big banks are united in their expectation for a rate hold this afternoon, though the major lenders remain split on what sort of conditions Australians can expect as the second half of the year unfolds.<\/p>\n Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, National Australia Bank and Westpac say the bank will keep the cash rate at 4.35%, pausing its tightening cycle to see what effect its last three consecutive cuts are having on the ground.<\/p>\n Westpac is the outlier, with its economists expecting one more rate hike for 2026 in August. No more movement is expected this year by the other three and all are agreed the next move made by the RBA will be a cut rather than a hike.<\/p>\n A hold is also the forecast from many other smaller lenders, with downwards movement already seen on variable rate offerings in the last week as lender competition continues to heat up.<\/p>\n Read more: Rate confusion \u2013 The battle of economics ideas behind different rate forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n Home prices drop for a second month after consecutive interest rate hikes<\/p>\n 1:18 pm<\/p>\n National home prices dropped again in May after a fall in April, which was the first for 2026. Consecutive rate hikes this year have taken a toll on borrower confidence, with rising inflation also constricting borrowing powers and limiting the options available to would-be buyers.<\/p>\n National home prices dropped 0.04 over the month, reducing the national median home value to $908,000. Despite this, prices are still 7.5% higher than they were this time last year, with growth in regional areas the leading factor.<\/p>\n Sydney, Melbourne and Perth all saw small price declines in May, while Australia\u2019s most affordable capital, Darwin, saw the equal highest growth over the month at 0.3%. Tied with Darwin was market stronghold Adelaide, which has risen in recent years to become the nation\u2019s fourth priciest capital with a median price just shy of $1 million.<\/p>\n Prices are likely to continue to be soft this year if the RBA hikes the cash rate again, with investor pull back also expected.<\/p>\n Read more: PropTrack Home Price Index \u2013 May 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Unemployment rise a concern for RBA ahead of cash rate announcement<\/p>\n 1:01 pm<\/p>\n Rising inflation isn\u2019t all the RBA has to worry about, with the bank bound by its \u2018dual mandate\u2019, which also requires decisions to be made to support maintaining full employment.<\/p>\n New jobs data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier this month could force the RBA to hold off on more hikes, with the unemployment rate continuing to creep up more quickly than market forecasts expect.<\/p>\n The data shows the national unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in April, with 19,000 fewer people employed compared with March. It was surprise news for markets, with general consensus the employment numbers would remain flat over the month.<\/p>\n If interest rates continue to rise, businesses are likely to slow down correspondingly, reducing hiring or potentially adding to unemployment, a scenario the RBA will likely be keen to avoid.<\/p>\n Read more: Major development could pull the handbrake on RBA’s rate hike spree<\/a><\/p>\n Consumer confidence low as RBA prepares to reveal interest rates decision<\/p>\n 12:46 pm<\/p>\n This afternoon\u2019s cash rate decision comes off the back of a major few weeks for households. The latest rate hike on 5 May was quickly followed by several major tax shake ups for property announced in the 2026 Federal Budget, including a revamp for negative gearing and changes to capital gains tax.<\/p>\n The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index shows price declines across the housing market and continuing hot inflation have since pushed public confidence down to one of the lowest levels on record.<\/p>\n The index fell 2.9% to 80.6 in June, down from 83 in May, with a reading of less than 100 indicating pessimists outnumber optimists among those surveyed.<\/p>\n Consumers will be looking to RBA governor Michele Bullock to provide a definitive outlook for the economy this afternoon, with the bank also keen to see consumers believe that low and stable inflation can be the norm for Australia.<\/p>\n Read more: Perfect storm: Budget tax changes, interest rates rattle market confidence<\/a><\/p>\n Economist prediction: No interest rate hike from the RBA<\/p>\n 12:32 pm<\/p>\n The Reserve Bank\u2019s monetary policy board is likely to hold the cash rate this afternoon, REA Group executive manager of economics Angus Moore says.<\/p>\n \u201cWe’re very unlikely to see a rate hike, even before oil prices moved lower yesterday,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile inflation is still too high, the RBA is likely to want to wait and see how the three hikes they’ve already put through are flowing through. And that’s particularly true given there are signs household spending is slowing and the housing market has also cleared slowed too.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr Moore added that final negotiations between the United States and Iran later this week could also deter lingering chances for a fourth rate hike.<\/p>\n \u201cThe announced peace deal, and the consequent fall in global oil prices, are also going to take some pressure off headline inflation, which will also give the RBA a little more comfort in holding this month.\u201d<\/p>\n Read more: The cities where house prices rose six times faster than inflation<\/a><\/p>\n Inflation soars as RBA doubles down<\/p>\n 12:16 pm<\/p>\n While Australia has seen three rate cuts and three rate hikes in 12 months, comparable economies like the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom have seen far less movement on the cash rate front across the same period.<\/p>\n Despite this, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser used a public appearance 10 days ago to say the bank does not regret its U-turn, adding it is easy to criticise central bank decisions with the benefit of hindsight.<\/p>\n Headline inflation rose 4.2% in the 12 months to April and is expected to peak this month, before slowly returning to within the RBA\u2019s 2-3% target range late next year, spelling trouble for the cash rate outlook for 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n The cash rate is likely to go up the longer it takes inflation to cool, and the main instigator of high inflation, the longer-term effects of the Iran War, will continue to linger. A rate hike this afternoon remains a possibility.<\/p>\n