That distinction matters \u2014 an economy with modest but broadening momentum, hit by a supply-side shock, is a different environment to one running hot, and it shapes how aggressively the RBNZ is likely to respond.<\/p>\n
A recovery that was broader than expected<\/p>\n
The breadth of the March quarter recovery is what makes the data significant, even if it is now dated. Growth was not concentrated in one sector \u2014 manufacturing rose 1.9%, wholesale trade expanded 2.4%, retail trade and accommodation grew 1.2%, and business services added 1.1%. Investment in plant, machinery, and equipment jumped 5.5%, with Turcu noting that computing and technology purchases were a notable driver, suggesting early signs of AI-related capital expenditure flowing through the data.<\/p>\n
The drag came from construction, which fell 1% for the second consecutive quarter and sits 3.8% lower on an annual basis. Residential investment fell 3.1% over the quarter, and private consumption rose only 0.5%, constrained by a soft labour market and subdued house price growth.<\/p>\n
What the GDP result means for the OCR<\/p>\n
This data captures a three-month window that closed before the Middle East conflict began, and the picture since has shifted considerably.<\/p>\n