So, who can actually win the tournament this week in Southampton?\u00a0<\/p>\n
In this piece, we\u2019ll be looking at the last 10 U.S. Open champions\u2014from Dustin Johnson\u2019s triumphant weekend at Oakmont in 2016 to J.J. Spaun\u2019s surprising win there last year\u2014to find any commonalities among champions and plug that criteria into the field of 156 players. We\u2019ll see who is still standing at the end of this experiment.<\/p>\n
Before we begin, let\u2019s meet our last 10 U.S. Open champions who will be our lodestar in this exercise: <\/p>\n
YEAR<\/p>\n
GOLFER<\/p>\n
SITE<\/p>\n
2025<\/p>\n
J.J. Spaun<\/p>\n
Oakmont C.C.<\/p>\n
2024<\/p>\n
Bryson DeChambeau<\/p>\n
Pinehurst Resort & C.C.<\/p>\n
2023<\/p>\n
Wyndham Clark<\/p>\n
The Los Angeles C.C.<\/p>\n
2022<\/p>\n
Matt Fitzpatrick<\/p>\n
The Country Club<\/p>\n
2021<\/p>\n
Jon Rahm<\/p>\n
Torrey Pines G.C.<\/p>\n
2020<\/p>\n
Bryson DeChambeau<\/p>\n
Winged Foot G.C.<\/p>\n
2019<\/p>\n
Gary Woodland<\/p>\n
Pebble Beach Golf Links<\/p>\n
2018<\/p>\n
Brooks Koepka<\/p>\n
Shinnecock Hills G.C.<\/p>\n
2017<\/p>\n
Brooks Koepka<\/p>\n
Erin Hills<\/p>\n
2016<\/p>\n
Dustin Johnson<\/p>\n
Oakmont C.C.<\/p>\n
And here we go<\/a>:<\/p>\n What can the advanced stats tell us?<\/p>\n The last 10 winners of the U.S. Open have one thing in common: In the year they won the U.S. Open, they finished that season in the top 25 in true strokes gained. What is true strokes gained, you ask? Data Golf<\/a> defines it as \u201cthe number of strokes you beat the field by in a given round, adjusted for the strength of that field,\u201d with the average for all PGA Tour rounds being zero.\u00a0 <\/p>\n 2026 U.S. Open Predictions: Our Picks to Win and Surprise at Shinnecock<\/a><\/p>\n So, to put it simply, the 2026 U.S. Open champion will be found in that top-25 leaderboard.<\/p>\n Heading into the U.S. Open, Scottie Scheffler unsurprisingly leads the way this season<\/a> with +2.93 true strokes gained, well ahead of Jon Rahm (+2.39) in second place. In a fun twist, one underdog found his way into the top 25\u2014Jackson Koivun, the top-ranked amateur in the world who enters the tournament with a +1.33 strokes gained this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Mr. Koivun, sir, you have a chance. And right off the bat, our list of potential U.S. Open winners has been chopped down to 25:<\/p>\n Scottie Scheffler (+2.93 true strokes gained)Jon Rahm (+2.39)Rory McIlroy (+2.26)Cameron Young (+2.22)Jake Knapp (+2.12)Matt Fitzpatrick (+2.06)Ludvig Aberg (+1.93)Si Woo Kim (+1.93)Xander Schauffele (+1.90)Collin Morikawa (+1.84)Russell Henley (+1.83)Patrick Reed (+1.82)Chris Gotterup (+1.73)Patrick Cantlay (+1.72)Tommy Fleetwood (+1.67)Maverick McNealy (+1.63)Sam Burns (+1.59)Adam Scott (+1.56)Min Woo Lee (+1.52)Jacob Bridgeman (+1.52)Ryan Gerard (+1.51)Harris English (+1.42)Justin Rose (+1.37)Shane Lowry (+1.36)Jackson Koivun (a; +1.33) <\/p>\n Although 25 golfers is just 16% of the field, it\u2019s still too many potential champions. Let\u2019s hop back in the analytics golf cart and keep rolling:<\/p>\n Experience matters \u2026 as does age<\/p>\n The U.S. Open, no matter the course it’s held at, is the ultimate test for the game\u2019s best golfers.\u00a0<\/p>\n It typically takes years of shortcomings and disappointments to build up enough callus and confidence to compete on Sunday to bring home the major. No player has won the U.S. Open in their first appearance since the aforementioned Ouimet in 1913.<\/p>\n Of the tournament\u2019s last 10 champions, eight finally hoisted the trophy in their fifth career appearance at the U.S. Open or later. The only outliers there are Spaun, who won it in his second appearance, and Clark, in his third.\u00a0<\/p>\n Acupuncture at Shinnecock: The Ghost of Zach Johnson Still Haunts the USGA<\/a><\/p>\n Recent history has taught us that U.S. Open champs usually have been in the mix in years prior before winning it, too. Eight of the last 10 champions tallied a T25 or better at a previous U.S. Open before finally hoisting the trophy.\u00a0<\/p>\n Age matters, too. The last 10 winners have all been 27 or older. Since 2000, just five U.S. Open champs have been younger than 27, the latest being 21-year-old Jordan Spieth in 2015.\u00a0<\/p>\n Based on the criteria to be at least 27 years old making their fifth trip (or more) to the U.S. Open with a T25 finish or better under their belt, we lose seven inexperienced golfers from our 25-man list: Chris Gotterup, Jackson Koivun (a), Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy and Ryan Gerard.\u00a0<\/p>\n The U.S. Open is a grind, though. It’s a physical challenge, especially this year with the windy conditions at Shinnecock. The winners often are in their peak years as an athlete. The last 10 winners have all been 35 or younger. In fact, since 2000, just two golfers over the age of 35 have won the U.S. Open\u2014Michael Campbell (36; 2005) and Angel Cabrera (37; 2007).\u00a0<\/p>\n When we cut out golfers over the age of 35, we\u2019re down to 12 who can win the 2026 U.S. Open. Sorry, Rory. Here is that list:<\/p>\n Scottie SchefflerJon Rahm Cameron Young Matt Fitzpatrick Si Woo Kim Xander SchauffeleCollin MorikawaPatrick Reed Patrick Cantlay Tommy Fleetwood Sam Burns Min Woo LeeIt takes a particular set of skills \u2026<\/p>\n But that\u2019s not all the advanced numbers say.<\/p>\n Just about all of the 10 most recent U.S. Open champions have been elite compared to the rest of the field in a certain aspect of their game. In the year they won the U.S. Open, eight of the past 10 champions have ranked in the top 10 in one of these categories: PUTT (strokes gained putting), ARG (strokes gained around the green), APP (strokes gained approach), OTT (strokes gained off the tee) and T2G (strokes gained tee to green). Six of the 10 have ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, which will be especially important this year at Shinnecock considering drives are expected to be at a premium to survive the course\u2019s tough conditions.<\/p>\n Of our 12 remaining golfers, eight currently rank in the top 10 in one of those categories listed above. But four stick out as players who rank in multiple categories, just like over half of our most recent U.S. Open champs.<\/p>\n The final group<\/p>\n Just four of the 156 players in the 2026 U.S. Open Field meet all of our criteria in our study of the past 10 tournament champions. These players all:<\/p>\n Are aged 27 to 35Have played in at least four prior U.S. Open tournamentsHave a finish of T25 or better at a past U.S. OpenCurrently rank in the top 25 in true strokes gainedCurrently rank in the top 10 in multiple categories: PUTT, ARG, APP, OTT and T2G<\/p>\n This list: Matt Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Young. <\/p>\n Fizpatrick, 31, is playing in his 12th U.S. Open and is a former winner (in 2022). He currently ranks sixth in APP, third in T2G and sixth in true strokes gained. <\/p>\n Rahm, 31, also has won the U.S. Open before (in 2021) and is entering his 10th appearance in the major. He ranks second in true strokes gained, fourth in T2G, 10th in OTT and 10th in APP.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/assets.minutemediacdn.com\/platform\/google_discover_icon.svg\"){kind=icon}
Add us as a preferred source on Google