Yes, the Western Conference remains stronger than the Eastern Conference at the top. Oklahoma City and San Antonio have established themselves as the conference\u2019s standard bearers. But beyond those teams, I think there\u2019s a legitimate argument that regression could be coming.<\/p>\n
The tax aprons have changed the game. Teams can no longer spend freely and figure out the consequences later. Organizations throughout the conference are facing difficult financial decisions, and many will be forced to trim payroll, move productive players, or reshape their rosters in ways they wouldn\u2019t otherwise choose. That reality could significantly impact the competitive landscape.<\/p>\n
So I thought it would be a worthwhile thought exercise to evaluate every Western Conference team based on where they finished last season and the challenges they currently face. What financial hurdles are they facing? What roster decisions must they make? Which teams are likely to stay the course, and which ones may be forced to pivot?<\/p>\n
By understanding where each franchise currently stands, we can create a baseline. Then, once the draft has concluded, free agency has unfolded, and the trade market has settled, we can revisit the conversation and ask the important question: Did the Western Conference get better, get worse, or stay the same?<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take a look at where each team currently sits as it prepares for the draft, free agency, and all of the chaos that comes with them.<\/p>\n
2025-26 Record: 64-18 The biggest challenge facing the Oklahoma City Thunder this offseason isn\u2019t talent. It\u2019s the cap sheet.<\/p>\n OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – MAY 18: Jalen Williams #8, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs look on during Game One of the NBA Western Conference Finals on May 18, 2026 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n The extension era has arrived. Both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are set to enter the first year of their five-year extensions, with each scheduled to earn $41.3 million in 2026-27. Add in team options for Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million), Lu Dort ($17.7 million), and Kenrich Williams ($7.2 million), and that\u2019s another $53.4 million in potential salary commitments.<\/p>\n Why does all of this matter? Because Oklahoma City is quickly approaching the same crossroads every contender eventually reaches. The Thunder currently hold three draft picks in this year\u2019s draft, but they don\u2019t necessarily have the roster spots to accommodate them. At this stage of the offseason, they already have 16 players under contract, including three players occupying two-way slots. Something has to give.<\/p>\n Last season, Oklahoma City operated below the first apron. Heading into next season, they project to sit roughly $28.6 million above the second apron if all of these commitments remain intact. That\u2019s a dramatic shift, and it places Sam Presti in a position he hasn\u2019t had to navigate before.<\/p>\n The question becomes one of priorities. Are the Thunder willing to live in the second apron for a season, accepting all of the roster-building restrictions that come with it in pursuit of another championship? Or do they begin making smaller sacrifices around the edges, declining team options, moving depth pieces, and replacing them with younger, cheaper players through the draft? Neither option is ideal. That\u2019s the challenge of the modern NBA. Eventually, success becomes expensive.<\/p>\n The Thunder are still in an enviable position. They have an MVP in Shai Gilgeous Alexander, two ascending stars in Williams and Holmgren, and one of the league\u2019s strongest organizational foundations. They\u2019re not suddenly going to fall apart because of the cap sheet. But it is fair to wonder whether some of the depth and continuity that made them so dangerous last season could be compromised by these financial realities.<\/p>\n That\u2019s what the second apron does. It forces good teams to make difficult choices. And this summer, Oklahoma City is about to make its first round of them.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 62-20 The Western Conference champion Spurs find themselves in a highly enviable position because none of their core players have reached the expensive phase of their careers yet.<\/p>\n SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS – APRIL 28: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs celebrates with teammates after the victory against the Portland Trail Blazers in Game Five of the First Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Frost Bank Center on April 28, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n Victor Wembanyama is entering Year 4. Stephon Castle is entering Year 3. Dylan Harper is entering Year 2. From a financial standpoint, San Antonio is sitting pretty. They have the luxury of building around elite young talent without the burden of multiple max contracts weighing down their cap sheet. That\u2019s a powerful place to be.<\/p>\n The Spurs currently have nine players under contract heading into next season, meaning they\u2019ll need to add roughly six more players to round out the roster. Fortunately for them, they possess four draft picks and more than enough flexibility to accomplish that goal without sacrificing their long-term outlook.<\/p>\n Financially, there isn\u2019t much pressure. Mentally, however, that\u2019s where the challenge begins.<\/p>\n The Spurs just made an NBA Finals run and came away empty-handed. While they were competitive throughout the series and had opportunities to win multiple games, they still lost. That\u2019s a difficult pill to swallow for any team, especially a young one that spent the entire season proving it belonged among the league\u2019s elite.<\/p>\n How they respond matters. Do they use that experience as fuel? Do they return with a renewed sense of purpose? Or does the disappointment linger longer than expected? Those are the questions that can\u2019t be answered by salary cap sheets or roster projections.<\/p>\n There is also the De\u2019Aaron Fox situation to monitor. Fox is scheduled to make $49.5 million as his extension begins to take effect. That\u2019s a significant number, and eventually the Spurs will have to determine what their long-term financial picture looks like once Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper become extension-eligible themselves.<\/p>\n The key word there is \u201ceventually\u201d. They don\u2019t have to make those decisions right now. That\u2019s what makes San Antonio so dangerous. While other contenders around the Western Conference are trimming payroll, shedding contracts, and navigating apron restrictions, the Spurs have flexibility. They have youth, draft capital, and continuity. And they have arguably the most important asset in basketball: a young superstar who hasn\u2019t reached his prime.<\/p>\n Because of that, San Antonio feels like one of the few teams in the conference that could legitimately be better next season simply through continuity and development. And that\u2019s a scary thought for the rest of the NBA.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 54-28 Denver finds itself in a very interesting position this offseason. Unlike Oklahoma City, which is dealing with the realities of the second apron, the Nuggets currently sit in that uncomfortable space between the first and second aprons. They\u2019re close enough to feel the pressure, but not so deep into it that drastic measures are required. That creates some interesting decisions for a front office trying to maximize what remains of Nikola Jokic\u2019s prime.<\/p>\n MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 23: Jamal Murray #27 and Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets looks on during the game against the Minnesota Timberwolvesduring Round One Game Three of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 23, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n The rumors suggest Denver is exploring ways to save money. Two names that continue to surface are Cameron Johnson, who is owed $23.1 million this season, and Christian Braun, whose five-year, $125 million extension is set to begin. Both are quality players. Both contribute to winning. And both represent opportunities for Denver to create financial flexibility if ownership decides that\u2019s the priority.<\/p>\n That\u2019s where the challenge begins. The Nuggets currently have 10 players under contract, meaning they still have work to do filling out the roster. At the same time, there are reports that Denver could be interested in moving up in the draft, potentially packaging picks 26 and 49 in an effort to acquire a player they believe can contribute immediately.<\/p>\n They\u2019re going to need those contributions. One of the realities of the apron era is that roster depth becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. When large portions of your cap sheet are devoted to a handful of star players, finding productive role players on rookie-scale contracts becomes critical. That\u2019s why the draft matters so much for Denver.<\/p>\n The bigger question is what they\u2019re prioritizing. Are they attempting to maximize every remaining year of the Jokic era, even if it means operating closer to the tax thresholds? Or are they looking to trim payroll, gain flexibility, and accept a slight step backward in the short term? If so, that could create an opportunity for others in the conference.<\/p>\n Those decisions matter because this is a team that could realistically regress. Not because Nikola Jokic is any less dominant. Not because Jamal Murray can\u2019t still be an impact player. But because the margin for error becomes thinner every year. Supporting casts change, depth erodes, and players age. Jokic and Murray are now three years removed from their championship run. While neither player is old by any means, the clock never stops moving forward.<\/p>\n Denver still has, in my opinion, the best player in the world. The question is whether they can continue surrounding him with enough talent to keep pace with the rapidly changing Western Conference.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 53-29 The Lakers were a team that I viewed as paper tigers entering last season. They looked better on paper than they did in reality, and for much of the year, I remained skeptical. Ultimately, they proved me wrong. They finished with an impressive record and advanced to the second round of the playoffs\u2026where they were swept by OKC. That said, they\u2019re another team entering this offseason with plenty of questions to answer.<\/p>\n HOUSTON, TEXAS – MARCH 16: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers celebrates with teammate Luka Doncic #77 during the second half against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center on March 16, 2026 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n The Lakers have some financial flexibility relative to other contenders, and a large part of that hinges on what LeBron James decides to do. The assumption is that he\u2019ll return to Los Angeles, but until that decision is finalized, it\u2019s difficult to know exactly what the Lakers\u2019 long-term plans are.<\/p>\n Assuming LeBron does return, the Lakers remain incredibly top-heavy salary-wise and talent-wise. Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves account for the majority of their offensive creation, and while that\u2019s an impressive trio, it also creates some important financial decisions.<\/p>\n The biggest one involves Reaves. Does he exercise his player option? If not, he\u2019ll either hit the open market or negotiate a new deal with the Lakers at a significantly higher number. That\u2019s a pivotal decision for Los Angeles because Reaves has become one of the better value contracts in basketball, and that value disappears the moment a new contract is signed.<\/p>\n In many ways, the Lakers feel stuck between two eras. They\u2019re trying to maximize what\u2019s left of the LeBron era while simultaneously preparing for life after LeBron. Those are two very different objectives, and balancing them isn\u2019t easy.<\/p>\n We all know LeBron\u2019s farewell tour is coming at some point. LeBron has never been shy about embracing the spotlight and celebrating himself, and when that final season arrives, it will become one of the biggest stories in sports. At the same time, the organization has already begun transitioning toward a future centered around Doncic. That\u2019s a difficult line to walk.<\/p>\n Because of that, I wonder about their depth. The top of the roster is talented enough to win plenty of regular-season games. But when you move beyond those headline names and begin evaluating the supporting cast, things become less convincing. Injuries, age, and roster balance all become factors.<\/p>\n And if the Lakers are forced to allocate even more money to the top of the roster, those depth concerns only become more pronounced. That\u2019s why I view Los Angeles as one of the more fascinating teams in the Western Conference this summer and a candidate for regression. They have star power. They have market appeal. They have flexibility. What they don\u2019t necessarily have is certainty.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 52-30 Houston is one of the few teams in the Western Conference that I could realistically see being better next season. A big reason for that is health. Last season, injuries had a significant impact on the Rockets. Fred VanVleet missing time hurt their facilitation and overall offensive organization, while Steven Adams\u2019 absence removed an important interior presence that was vital to their identity. When those players were unavailable, Houston often looked like a team searching for answers.<\/p>\n If they simply stay the course, they have a chance to improve. The Rockets currently have roughly $21.5 million of room before reaching the first apron and still need to fill five roster spots. That gives them some flexibility without forcing them into difficult financial decisions, although it appears that being an apron team is their destiny. Unlike some of the other contenders in the conference, they aren\u2019t entering the offseason looking for ways to cut costs. That alone puts them in a favorable position.<\/p>\n The challenge, however, remains health. The amount of mileage they put on Kevin Durant last season was substantial. As great as Durant continues to be, he\u2019s not getting younger, and asking him to shoulder that kind of burden over an 82-game season comes with risk.<\/p>\n There are also basketball questions that still need answers. Amen Thompson remains one of the most intriguing young players in the league, but I don\u2019t know if he took the developmental leap many expected last season. The talent is obvious. The athleticism is undeniable. The shooting? Meh. There\u2019s still growth required before he becomes the fully realized version of the player Houston hopes he can be.<\/p>\n That\u2019s what makes the Rockets difficult to project. On paper, they have enough talent to be a top-three seed in the Western Conference. If they stay healthy, develop internally, and continue building around their core, that outcome feels entirely realistic. At the same time, we saw how fragile things became when injuries hit. When key players were unavailable, Houston often looked unsure of its identity. Whether that was a coaching issue, a roster construction issue, a culture issue (hmmm\u2026), or simply the reality of missing important contributors, the result was the same. The Rockets struggled to consistently define who they were.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 49-33 Another interesting team sitting in the middle tier of the Western Conference is the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is a franchise that has been successful by most measures. Over the past three seasons, they\u2019ve reached two Western Conference Finals and followed that up with a second-round exit against the Spurs this postseason. That\u2019s a pretty good run.<\/p>\n The problem is that once you\u2019ve reached that level, expectations change. Good is no longer good enough.<\/p>\n SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS – MAY 12: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts during the second quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in Game Five of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Frost Bank Center on May 12, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n Minnesota currently has nine players under contract and some flexibility to work with. They still have access to the mid-level exception and biannual exception, which means they can add talent without having to completely reshape the roster.<\/p>\n The question is whether they believe adding around the edges is enough. Or do they feel compelled to make a larger move?<\/p>\n Julius Randle\u2019s future remains one of the more compelling storylines surrounding the franchise. Does Minnesota view him as part of the long-term solution? Or do they explore alternatives in an effort to raise their ceiling? That\u2019s a decision that could define much of their offseason.<\/p>\n Complicating matters is the injury to Donte DiVincenzo, who is expected to miss the entire season following the injury he suffered in the postseason. Losing a key rotational player adds additional pressure to a roster already trying to find ways to improve.<\/p>\n And then there\u2019s Anthony Edwards. Not because he\u2019s unhappy. Not because he\u2019s demanding changes. But because every franchise with a superstar eventually reaches the point where urgency begins to increase. Edwards has already established himself as one of the faces of the league. At some point, the expectation shifts from competing to contending. That\u2019s when difficult decisions start getting made.<\/p>\n Minnesota has proven it can be good. The Timberwolves have demonstrated that repeatedly over the past few years. The challenge now is taking the next step and becoming great. The danger, of course, is that in chasing greatness, you can accidentally move backward. That\u2019s what makes this offseason so important. Do they trust the foundation they\u2019ve built and make smaller adjustments around it? Or do they decide that, after falling short once again, something more significant needs to change?<\/p>\n Minnesota\u2019s ceiling remains high. The question is whether they\u2019ll have the patience to pursue it the same way they\u2019ve been pursuing it, or whether they\u2019ll feel compelled to take a different path.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 45-37 Ah, yes. A team we know well. The Phoenix Suns. Of all the teams in the Western Conference, Phoenix might be one of the more difficult teams to project because its path to improvement doesn\u2019t necessarily come from external additions. It comes from within.<\/p>\n SACRAMENTO, CA – MARCH 3: Jalen Green #4 and Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns talk during the game against the Sacramento Kings on March 3, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n There is certainly a path to progression for this team next season. Health will play a major role, as it always does. But more importantly, internal development must occur. The Suns have invested heavily in young players over the past two drafts, and if they want to make a meaningful jump in the standings, those players need to take meaningful steps forward. That\u2019s the bet.<\/p>\n Ryan Dunn needs to be better. Khaman Maluach needs to contribute. Rasheer Fleming needs to find ways to impact winning. Oso Ighodaro must continue to grow (and maybe even learn to take a jumper). The young core doesn\u2019t have to become stars overnight, but they do need to become productive rotation players.<\/p>\n The growth can\u2019t stop there. The team as a whole needs a better understanding of how to play together. Last season was the first year of a new era, one focused on culture, identity, and establishing a foundation. The expectation is that a second year in the system should bring more cohesion and a better understanding of roles.<\/p>\n There are coaching adjustments that need to occur as well. Three-guard lineups were a recurring issue throughout the season, particularly when size and rebounding became concerns. Finding better lineup combinations and maximizing the strengths of the roster will be an important part of the equation moving forward.<\/p>\n It appears that continuity appears to be the plan. Unlike many teams in the Western Conference that are looking to shed salary, shake up their roster, or reevaluate their direction, Phoenix seems focused on bringing back the majority of last season\u2019s team. That continuity could prove valuable if the organization truly believes it has identified the right culture and the right style of play.<\/p>\n From a roster standpoint, there may only be one open spot available, whether that\u2019s filled through the draft or reserved for a future free agent acquisition.<\/p>\n Financially, the Suns have the flexibility to operate above the first apron if necessary, and they may need to do exactly that if they intend to retain Jordan Goodwin, Collin Gillespie, and Mark Williams. Those decisions will go a long way toward defining what next season\u2019s roster ultimately looks like.<\/p>\n The path forward for Phoenix feels relatively straightforward. Stay healthy. Develop internally. Retain the right players. Continue building the culture. If those things happen, there\u2019s a realistic chance the Suns are better next season than many people currently expect.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 42-40 The Portland Trail Blazers are the only team in the Western Conference entering this draft cycle without a selection. Normally, that would be viewed as a problem. For Portland, I don\u2019t know if it is.<\/p>\n PORTLAND, OREGON – APRIL 10: Jrue Holiday #5 and Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers talk during the second half against the Los Angeles Clippers at Moda Center on April 10, 2026 in Portland, Oregon. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Soobum Im\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t a roster that desperately needs more young players. In many ways, they\u2019re in a similar position to the Phoenix Suns as, rather than searching for outside answers, they can lean into the identity they began developing last season and hope continuity helps push them forward.<\/p>\n The biggest addition they expect to have next season is one they didn\u2019t have for most of last year. Damian Lillard. Assuming his recovery continues on schedule, Lillard\u2019s return gives Portland an established veteran presence and someone capable of stabilizing the offense. Whether he\u2019s still the same player he was in his prime remains to be seen, but his presence alone changes the complexion of the roster.<\/p>\n Beyond that, the Trail Blazers don\u2019t have many difficult decisions to make. They hold team options on Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, and Kris Murray. The assumption is that all three options will be exercised. That\u2019s what makes Portland one of the more straightforward teams in the conference this offseason. They\u2019re not trying to dump salary. They\u2019re not trying to reshape the roster. They\u2019re not navigating difficult extension decisions or second apron restrictions. Instead, they\u2019re in a position where they can largely run it back and see what another year of development produces. And that\u2019s not a bad place to be.<\/p>\n The hope is that Scoot Henderson continues to grow. The hope is that Clingan develops into a more impactful center. The hope is that the young core improves while Lillard provides leadership and stability. It\u2019s a simple formula. Continuity, development, and patience. Whether that\u2019s enough to move them up the Western Conference standings remains to be seen, but Portland feels like a team that is comfortable finding out.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 42-40 I feel like the Clippers could end up being the team that dictates how this draft unfolds. Holding the fifth overall pick gives them a tremendous amount of leverage, especially when you consider their current roster construction. After acquiring Darius Garland last season, point guard isn\u2019t a pressing need. The interesting wrinkle is that many of the players projected to be available around No. 5 are guards.<\/p>\n INGLEWOOD, CA – MARCH 9: Kawhi Leonard #2 and Darius Garland #10 of the LA Clippers look on during the game against the New York Knicks on March 9, 2026 at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and\/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Juan Ocampo\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n So what do the Clippers do? Do they stay put and take the best player available? Do they move back and accumulate more assets? Do they identify a team desperate to move up and capitalize on that urgency? Regardless of what they opt to do, they will be adding a young talent to a roster ready to absorb it.<\/p>\n Beyond the draft, the Clippers have several roster decisions looming. They hold team options on some old heads in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez, Nicolas Batum, and Jordan Miller. None of those decisions is franchise-altering on its own, but collectively they help determine the direction of the roster.<\/p>\n Collectivly, the Clippers average age is 28.8, second oldest in the league. They are old, not in a catastrophic way, but old enough that they have to start thinking about what\u2019s next. The current roster can still compete, but eventually every veteran-heavy team reaches a point where it must begin balancing present success against future sustainability.<\/p>\n That\u2019s why this offseason feels important for them. We saw flashes of what this team could be after they moved away from James Harden and Ivica Zubac and leaned more heavily into a roster built around Garland. There was more balance. There was more pace. There were moments when the Clippers looked like a team beginning to transition into its next phase. Whether they fully embrace that transition remains to be seen.<\/p>\n The fifth pick gives them options. Their team options give them flexibility. And unlike some teams that are boxed in by financial restrictions, the Clippers still have pathways to reshape the roster if they choose. That\u2019s why I view them as one of the swing teams in the Western Conference. If they make the right decisions, they could absolutely take a step forward next season. And if they decide to get creative on draft night, they may end up impacting far more than their own future. That is, unless their Aspirations catch up to them\u2026<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 34-45 Speaking of old, let\u2019s talk about the team whose average age is 30.1. Golden State is old. That\u2019s not meant as an insult. It\u2019s simply the reality of where they are as a franchise. The core that delivered championships is still in place, but with age comes challenges, and those challenges become more apparent with each passing season.<\/p>\n LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 15: Stephen Curry #30 and Jimmy Butler III #10 of the Golden State Warriors laughs during the game against the LA Clippers on April 15, 2026 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and\/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Juan Ocampo\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n Golden State currently has nine players under contract heading into next year, meaning they still need to fill out roughly six roster spots. The problem is they don\u2019t have a ton of financial flexibility relative to the first apron, which limits some of the ways they can improve around the margins.<\/p>\n They have the No. 11 pick, which gives the Warriors an opportunity to inject some youth into a roster that desperately needs it. Whether that player contributes immediately or develops over time, adding a young asset is critical for a team that has spent years pushing its chips toward the center of the table. The question is whether that will be enough?<\/p>\n When I look at the Warriors, I don\u2019t necessarily see a team that\u2019s positioned to improve significantly next season. They\u2019re still going to have Stephen Curry. They\u2019re still going to have championship experience. They\u2019re still going to have one of the smartest organizations in basketball. But age is undefeated.<\/p>\n Experience helps you navigate difficult moments. It helps you win close games. It helps you handle pressure. What it doesn\u2019t do is make your legs fresher in January, February, and March. It doesn\u2019t make recovery easier. It doesn\u2019t prevent the wear and tear that accumulates over the course of an 82-game season. We saw some of that last year. There were stretches when the Warriors looked dangerous and capable of beating anyone. There were other stretches when fatigue seemed to catch up to them, particularly as the season wore on. That\u2019s the challenge of building around an aging core.<\/p>\n Golden State remains good enough to be competitive. They remain good enough to make the playoffs. They remain good enough to be annoying in a playoff series if Curry gets hot. But when I evaluate the trajectory of the Western Conference, the Warriors feel like one of the teams most vulnerable to standing still while younger teams continue moving forward.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 26-56 The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the more difficult teams in the Western Conference to figure out. On paper, they should be better than they are. But, like 1994 states, reality bites.<\/p>\n MEMPHIS, TN – OCTOBER 22: Zion Williamson #1 and Trey Murphy III #25 of the New Orleans Pelicans looks on during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies on October 22, 2025 at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n They currently have 14 of their 15 roster spots filled and only possess one draft pick (turns out trading away your unprotected first in this years draft was a bone headed move), a selection at the back end of the second round. That means they aren\u2019t entering the offseason with a ton of flexibility to reshape the roster through the draft. Which raises an important question. Are they finally at the point where they need to start moving pieces?<\/p>\n The trajectory they\u2019re carrying over from last season certainly suggests that possibility. This was a team that lost 30 more games than it won, and at some point, results have to matter. You can talk about injuries. You can talk about bad luck. You can talk about circumstances. Eventually, the standings tell the story, and the story hasn\u2019t been a good one.<\/p>\n When you look at the Pelicans\u2019 roster, it feels like there should be something there. There is talent. There are productive players. Some pieces would fit on winning teams. Yet year after year, they struggle to put it all together. That\u2019s why I wonder if they\u2019re approaching an inflection point. At some stage, organizations have to stop asking why something isn\u2019t working and start acknowledging that it isn\u2019t working. If New Orleans reaches that conclusion, this could be the summer they begin selling off pieces and attempting to reset their timeline.<\/p>\n In some ways, they remind me of the Toronto Raptors after Kawhi Leonard left. There were still plenty of productive players on the roster. There was still talent. There were still recognizable names. What there wasn\u2019t was a player capable of carrying the franchise on his own and elevating everyone around him. That\u2019s the challenge New Orleans faces.<\/p>\n And because of that, they could become one of the teams that dictates the trade market this offseason. If they decide to move veterans, other contenders will be interested. If they decide to pivot toward youth, there will be opportunities to accumulate assets. Either way, I think a change \u2018gon come.<\/p>\n When I look at the Pelicans heading into next season, I don\u2019t see a team positioned to improve. I see a team staring at difficult decisions and a front office that may finally have to accept that the current version of the roster has reached its ceiling. That\u2019s why I expect regression. Not because the players aren\u2019t talented, but because the organization may finally decide it\u2019s time to build something different.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 26-56 Dallas is a team that, in theory, should be better next season. Kyrie Irving is expected to return. Cooper Flagg will be entering his second season and continuing his development. And unlike some of the teams we\u2019ve already discussed, the Mavericks aren\u2019t entering the offseason trying to tear things down or dramatically reshape who they are. The foundation is there. The question is how all of the pieces fit together.<\/p>\n DALLAS, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 29: Dereck Lively II #2 , Kyrie Irving #11 and Cooper Flagg #32 of the Dallas Mavericks poses for a portrait during media day on September 29, 2025 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n Dallas currently has 11 players under contract, so there is still work to be done filling out the roster. Part of that will come via the 9th pick in the draft, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if this is where Univerity of Arizona alumn Brayden Burries lands. The succesor to Kyrie is waiting for them in the lottery.<\/p>\n For Dallas, the harder part is figuring out how to maximize the talent already in the building and determining what the hierarchy looks like once everyone is healthy. Because while I can absolutely see Dallas winning more games than they did a season ago, I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s the real question. The floor feels relatively safe. The ceiling is what interests me. Are they a team capable of making a massive leap and winning 20 more games? I have a hard time seeing that. Improvement feels likely. Dramatic improvement feels less certain.<\/p>\n Part of that is because development rarely occurs in a straight line. Cooper Flagg should be better. The young players around him should be better. But the return of Kyrie Irving changes the dynamics of the team. Possessions shift, roles evolve, and expectations change. Integrating a high usage star back into the lineup is never as simple as plugging a player back into his old spot and continuing where you left off.<\/p>\n That\u2019s why I think Dallas is probably a year away. Not a year away from being good. A year away from fully understanding what it can become. The talent is obvious. The star power is there. But next season feels more like a season of discovery than a season of contention. The Mavericks need to learn how all of these pieces function together before they can truly maximize the roster.<\/p>\n That makes them one of the more fascinating teams in the conference. I expect them to improve. I\u2019m just not convinced they\u2019re ready to make the kind of jump that places them firmly among the Western Conference elite.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 22-57 We all know where Memphis appears to be heading. The Grizzlies began dismantling portions of their roster last offseason, and at this point the only true cornerstone that remains is Ja Morant. Whether that\u2019s by design or simply the natural evolution of the roster, Memphis feels like a franchise standing at a crossroads. And this draft could accelerate that process.<\/p>\n MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE – JANUARY 21: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies goes to the basket against Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 of the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at FedExForum on January 21, 2026 in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin Ford\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n The Grizzlies currently hold the third, 16th, and 32nd picks, giving them three opportunities to add young talent. Or possbily package them to move up. Or sell one. That\u2019s exciting, but it also creates a practical problem. Roster spots aren\u2019t unlimited. Something has to give. Memphis also has team options on Taylor Hendricks, Zach Edey, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, and GG Jackson. Assuming they want to retain some or all of those players, the roster math becomes increasingly difficult. That\u2019s why I expect movement.<\/p>\n Whether it\u2019s veterans being traded, younger players being moved, or draft picks being packaged in deals, it feels unlikely that Memphis simply makes all of its selections and carries everyone forward. There are too many players and not enough opportunities.<\/p>\n The biggest question, of course, revolves around Ja Morant. ISure sounds like Memphis is willing to trade him. That\u2019s a conversation that would have sounded ridiculous a few years ago, but circumstances change. If the organization truly believes it needs a complete reset, then every player should be subject to discussion.<\/p>\n The challenge is determining Morant\u2019s value. He\u2019s still one of the most explosive guards in basketball, but availability, injuries, and off-court concerns have complicated the equation. If Memphis decided to move him, would teams line up with premium offers? Or would the Grizzlies find themselves needing to include additional assets to facilitate a deal?<\/p>\n Memphis feels like a team preparing for a full rebuild. They have draft capital, young players, and flexibility. And they have an opportunity to establish a new timeline around a younger core. That timeline may very well center around Cedric Coward. Damn, I like that guy. Whether he\u2019s the future face of the franchise remains to be seen, but he represents the type of young asset rebuilding teams prioritize. Development, opportunity, and patience become the focus. Because when I look at the Grizzlies entering this offseason, I don\u2019t see a team trying to climb the Western Conference standings.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 22-60 What can you say about the Sacramento Kings? I know Suns fans spend plenty of time lamenting the state of their franchise, but Sacramento provides a reminder that things can always be more complicated. Imagine one playoff appearance in the past 20 years. I\u2019d prefer not to.<\/p>\n SACRAMENTO, CA – NOVEMBER 9: Zach LaVine #8 and DeMar DeRozan #10 of the Sacramento Kings talk during the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on November 9, 2025 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner\/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n This is a team that won only 22 games last season and now enters the 2026-27 offseason cycle already operating above the first apron. That\u2019s not exactly where you want to be when you\u2019re coming off a season like that.<\/p>\n The financial picture explains why.<\/p>\n Zach LaVine is owed $49 million next season. Domantas Sabonis will make $45.5 million. Then you have DeMar DeRozan, De\u2019Andre Hunter, Keegan Murray, and Malik Monk, all earning more than $20 million annually. That\u2019s a lot of money committed to a roster that hasn\u2019t produced results. Or beams.<\/p>\n That\u2019s why the rumors have started. Sabonis\u2019 name continues to surface in trade discussions, which makes sense when you consider where the Kings are as an organization. If you\u2019re looking to reshape the roster, your best players are naturally going to become part of the conversation. The challenge is value. Sabonis remains a highly productive player, but he\u2019s entering his age-30 season and is owed $94.1 million over the next two years. That\u2019s not an impossible contract to move, but it does narrow the pool of potential suitors. Teams need to believe he\u2019s the missing piece, not merely a good player. That\u2019s easier said than done.<\/p>\n When I look at Sacramento, I see a franchise caught in an uncomfortable middle ground. They\u2019re not rebuilding. They\u2019re not contending. They\u2019re not young enough to be patient, and they\u2019re not good enough to justify running everything back without asking difficult questions.<\/p>\n Maybe they will improve next season. Maybe a coaching adjustment, better health, or internal development helps them squeeze out a few more wins. That\u2019s certainly possible. But when I compare them to the teams around them in the Western Conference, I don\u2019t see a clear pathway toward meaningful improvement. Marginally better? Sure. Significantly better? Negative.<\/p>\n 2025-26 Record: 22-60 Last, but certainly not least, we have the Utah Jazz. They\u2019re one of the more intriguing teams in the Western Conference because they feel like a franchise that is on the verge of turning the corer. They should be more competitive next season, even if they aren\u2019t ready to make a meaningful leap in the standings.<\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a>: +140
Cap Space: -$101.5 million
First Apron Space: -$41.6 million
Second Apron Space: -$28.6 million
2026 Draft Picks: 12, 17, 37<\/p>\n![\"OKLAHOMA](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2276462162.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +140
Cap Space: -$64.8 million
First Apron Space: $52.8 million
Second Apron Space: $65.8 million
2026 Draft Picks: 20, 35, 42, 44<\/p>\n![\"SAN](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2273630244.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +1200
Cap Space: -$99.0 million
First Apron Space: -$10.4 million
Second Apron Space: $2.6 million
2026 Draft Picks: 26, 49<\/p>\n![\"MINNEAPOLIS,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2272143438.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +1700
Cap Space: -$95.5 million
First Apron Space: $101.5 million
Second Apron Space: $114.5 million
2026 Draft Picks: 25<\/p>\n![\"HOUSTON,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2266955380.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +2000
Cap Space: -$61.3 million
First Apron Space: $21.5 million
Second Apron Space: $34.5 million
2026 Draft Picks: 39, 53<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/FVV.png\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +1800
Cap Space: -$97.0 million
First Apron Space: $16.9 million
Second Apron Space: $29.9 million
2026 Draft Picks: 28, 59<\/p>\n![\"SAN](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2275908808.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +7000
Cap Space: -$73.8 million
First Apron Space: $22.8 million
Second Apron Space: $35.8 million
2026 Draft Picks: 47<\/p>\n![\"SACRAMENTO,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2265134017.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +5000
Cap Space: -$66.1 million
First Apron Space: $38.8 million
Second Apron Space: $51.8 million
2026 Draft Picks: None<\/p>\n![\"PORTLAND,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2270831578.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +3300
Cap Space: -$90.7 million
First Apron Space: $46.8 million
Second Apron Space: $59.8 million
2026 Draft Picks: 5, 36, 52<\/p>\n![\"INGLEWOOD,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2272326378.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +4000
Cap Space: -$119.6 million
First Apron Space: $27.0 million
Second Apron Space: $40.0 million
2026 Draft Picks: 11, 54<\/p>\n![\"LOS](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2271000517.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +15000
Cap Space: -$61.1 million
First Apron Space: $6.3 million
Second Apron Space: $19.3 million
2026 Draft Picks: 58<\/p>\n![\"MEMPHIS,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2242349690.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +10000
Cap Space: -$84.5 million
First Apron Space: $55.6 million
Second Apron Space: $68.6 million
2026 Draft Picks: 9, 30, 48<\/p>\n![\"DALLAS,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2238256733.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a>: +35000
Cap Space: -$1.2 million
First Apron Space: $61.6 million
Second Apron Space: $74.6 million
2026 Draft Picks: 3, 16, 32<\/p>\n![\"MEMPHIS,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2257503503.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +75000
Cap Space: -$90.6 million
First Apron Space: -$1.0 million
Second Apron Space: $12.0 million
2026 Draft Picks: 7, 34, 45<\/p>\n![\"SACRAMENTO,](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2246605252.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n
Odds to Win the West<\/a><\/a>: +8000
Cap Space: -$46.7 million
First Apron Space: $66.6 million
Second Apron Space: $79.6 million
2026 Draft Picks: 2<\/p>\n
![\"SALT](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gettyimages-2269170351.jpg\"\/)
<\/a><\/p>\n