The chamber has said for months that it is \u201cdeeply concerned\u201d<\/a> by the prospect of Alberta leaving Canada, arguing that the initiative itself will cause \u201cprofound economic uncertainty and damage\u201d to the province.<\/p>\n For its report, the chamber tasked University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe to conduct an analysis tied to separation. Tombe is also a part<\/a> of the federalist group Lead Not Leave.<\/p>\n Based on the measured effect of Brexit in the U.K., Tombe estimated that an eight per cent increase in trade costs could see Alberta lose 175,000 jobs and see its economy shrink, potentially by as much as $62 billion a year.<\/p>\n Trade costs could rise due to increased regulatory differences and potential tariffs, or exclusion from international trade agreements, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cNow, that\u2019s a change in trade cost informed from Brexit. It could be a little lower,\u201d Tombe said. \u201cCould also be higher, because a separate Alberta is a much more complicated endeavour than the United Kingdom exiting the European Union.\u201d<\/p>\n Tombe estimates approximately 900,000 Albertans \u2014 about one in three workers \u2014 work in sectors that are heavily reliant on exports outside the province.\u00a0<\/p>\n Tombe also did calculations based on Alberta\u2019s economic relationships with the rest of the country.<\/p>\n He estimated approximately 330,000 local jobs are supported by Alberta\u2019s interprovincial exports, and that an eight per cent rise in interprovincial trade costs could lead to a $16 billion retraction in the size of Alberta\u2019s economy, and a reduction of 34,000 jobs.<\/p>\n Tombe estimates interprovincial trade with Alberta supports 800,000 jobs nationally.<\/p>\n Competing projections<\/p>\n Keith Wilson, a lawyer and advocate for separation with the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide, said he questioned comparing the Alberta situation to Brexit, calling it \u201cfundamentally different.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBrexit was about the U.K. moving away from its largest market, being Europe,\u201d he said. \u201cAlberta independence is about Alberta moving closer to its largest market, and the largest market in the world, the United States.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The chamber report isn\u2019t the only economic projection for Alberta tied to the prospect of separation. Other numbers offered up by competing camps have ranged dramatically.<\/p>\n Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has estimated leaving Canada could cost the province $400 billion in transitional costs, plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion. Included in that estimate was Alberta\u2019s share of the national debt, as well as its NATO commitments and other startup costs.\u00a0<\/p>\n Jeffrey Rath, chief lawyer for Stay Free Alberta, has called that figure<\/a> \u201cinsane.\u201d The Alberta Prosperity Project, the group behind Stay Free Alberta, has come up with a transition cost of approximately $6 billion.<\/p>\n In its fiscal plan released in July 2025, which it calls the Value of Freedom, the group argued an independent Alberta would see fiscal surpluses after retaining money previously sent to Ottawa through taxes.<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1782337331_53_default.jpg\")
Trevor Tombe is an economics professor at the University of Calgary, and a member of the federalist group Lead Not Leave. (Colin Hall\/CBC)<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1782337332_663_default.jpg\")
Constitutional lawyer Keith Wilson argued in favour of Alberta independence at a debate in Calgary held in late May. (New West Video)<\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1782337332_277_default.jpg\")
Ruhee Ismail-Teja, vice president of policy and external affairs at the chamber, said the business organization conducted the survey to quantify the concerns businesses are feeling around the potential of Alberta separation. (Calgary Chamber of Commerce)<\/p>\n