For years, small satellite manufacturers have built their business plans around the idea that SpaceX could launch their payload to space. Through its Falcon 9 Transporter and Bandwagon rideshare missions, SpaceX offered frequent, reliable and inexpensive transportation to sun-synchronous and mid-inclination orbits.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But now worry is setting in.\u00a0<\/p>\n
At least nine SpaceX partners and customers tell SpaceNews that SpaceX is not accepting Transporter reservations beyond late 2028 or early 2029, and the manifest for the next couple of years is nearly full. Some customers said they expect that SpaceX will extend Falcon 9 rideshares if its super heavy-lift Starship rocket does not come online as quickly as company leaders anticipate.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But the lack of spots \u2014 potentially as few as half as many as in recent years \u2014 has left satellite companies scrambling to find a way to space.<\/p>\n
SpaceX did not respond to questions about the future of its rideshare flights.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve arrived at a point where launch has not achieved the cost nor the frequency the broader sector anticipated and has become a significant and dangerous bottleneck,\u201d space consultant and angel investor Keith Masback said by email.<\/p>\n
While secondary payloads can fly with many launch providers, none offer transportation as frequently or inexpensively as SpaceX rideshares, creating uncertainty at a time when manufacturers are producing satellites at a rate faster than launch capability is becoming available.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is now a huge demand for access to space and maybe not that much supply,\u201d Valentin Benoit, chief executive for French launch integrator RIDE! Space, said in an interview. \u201cThere is a clear asymmetry between the timeline for which satellites need to be launched and what the market can provide. That could be lethal at some point.\u201d<\/p>\n
In late May, U.S. launch integrator SEOPS announced the purchase of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to send small satellites to low Earth orbit in a 2028 rideshare. Three weeks later, the manifest for SEOPS\u2019 Waymaker mission was full and approximately 30 customers were on a\u00a0waitlist.<\/p>\n
Executives warn a shortage of launch capabilities could have a series of trickle down effects throughout the industry. This could jeopardizing the future of startups, many of whom assume they will be able to choose among multiple annual rideshare flights and pay about $8,000 per kilogram.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not time for panic, though, SEOPS President Evan Hoyt said in an interview. Instead, satellite operators need to consider launch along with other long-lead items about 36 months ahead of need \u2014 rather than 12 \u2014 and commit the capital necessary to book flights early.<\/p>\n
Prices will rise<\/p>\n
For all the uncertainty in the launch market, industry executives agree on one trickle-down effect: The price of launching small satellites is rising. Satellite operators who assume future launch costs will mirror those of SpaceX rideshares face an unpleasant surprise.<\/p>\n
\u201cConsidering the current state of the art of the launch providers, we should all expect more [of] a price increase than a price decrease,\u201d Benoit said. \u201cThe shortage of capacity is making the market understand better that they cannot expect the same level of prices. And it\u2019s better to launch at twice the rate, than not to launch at all.\u201d<\/p>\n
Satellite operators are getting the message.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cOur customers are increasingly optimizing for factors other than price, such as orbit control, launch timing certainty, or execution risk,\u201d Robert Sproles, chief executive of the German launch integrator Exolaunch, said by email. \u201cThose factors become more important as constellation operators mature and scale. Therefore, we see a general trend toward accepting higher launch costs in order to support these priorities.\u201d<\/p>\n
Reductions in annual rideshare flights also offer opportunities for global launch providers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe all need to jump on the opportunity\u201d by increasing launch cadence and managing costs, Xavier Lancel, head of marketing and business intelligence for Vega and Vega C prime contractor Avio, said in May at the SmallSat Europe conference in Amsterdam.<\/p>\n
Into the breach<\/p>\n
Given growing demand, companies worldwide are working to expand their supply and offer more options for getting to orbit.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Since the manifest of Europe\u2019s Ariane 6 is fully booked for 2026 and 2027 and few slots remain for 2028, European launch provider Arianespace is preparing to offer additional capacity in 2029 and 2030. Ariane 6 is being equipped with a Multi-Launch System that will allow the rocket to send secondary payloads to multiple orbits, Arianespace Vice President Aaron Lewis said by email.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In addition, Exolaunch has purchased two Falcon 9 launches for rideshares in late 2027 or 2028. And RIDE! purchased space for 1,000 kilograms on the 2028 SEOPS Waymaker mission for European customers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we need to do is generate as much launch capacity as the market\u2019s looking for. And they\u2019re looking for a lot,\u201d Hoyt said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Even with the Exolaunch and SEOPS flights, there are likely to be three to five rideshare missions per year, compared with six to eight in the recent past. To make up the difference, other launch providers would need to supply \u201cat least the equivalent\u201d of three to five rockets offering six to eight tons of launch capacity per year, Benoit said.<\/p>\n
Fewer rideshares is good news for a group of small launch vehicle developers striving to reach orbit for the first time. The pack includes Germany\u2019s Rocket Factory Augsburg, ISAR Aerospace and HyImpulse, PLD Space of Spain, France\u2019s Maiaspace, India\u2019s Skyroot Aerospace, Australia\u2019s Gilmour Space Technologies, the United Kingdom\u2019s Skyrora and China\u2019s Galactic Energy and iSpace. Still, it will take time to see which of the new rockets provide reliable, cost-effective flights.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Plus, many early flights of the new rockets have already been claimed by commercial, civil and military customers.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Surging military spending in Germany and other nations will further fuel launch demand and \u201cincrease the scarcity of this resource,\u201d Josef Wiedemann, Isar Aerospace sales director, said at SmallSat Europe.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you want to launch all the things that we have in mind by 2028, 2029 and 2030, it\u2019s time now to industrialize,\u201d Wiedemann said. \u201cI cannot magically make rockets appear in one or two years. You need machines; you need people. To really scale, you need to further accelerate the execution.\u201d<\/p>\n
Also complicating the launch picture is a dearth of available medium and large rockets. Anomalies had already sidelined the United Launch Alliance Vulcan Centaur rocket and India\u2019s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle before Blue Origin\u2019s New Glenn rocket exploded May 28 during hotfire testing at Cape Canaveral, Florida. While Vulcan and New Glenn were not expected to provide extensive rideshare opportunities, they could loft some small satellites alongside primary payloads. PSLV has a track record of offering rideshare but its current manifest centers on Indian government missions.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor any launch provider, it\u2019s always the same set of priority: defense clients, institutional clients, megaconstellation or legacy commercial companies and then smallsat,\u201d Benoit said. \u201cWe thought that the launch market was supposed to balance the current rideshare program discontinuity, but obviously they are not mature enough or they are not as reliable as expected.\u201d<\/p>\n
Starship to the rescue?<\/p>\n
One mystery looming over the market is Starship. While companies are banking on Starship providing plentiful space access, SpaceX\u2019s near-term priorities for the super heavy-lift rocket are deploying upgraded Starlink communications satellites and providing lunar transportation for NASA\u2019s Artemis 3 Human Landing System. Martian missions, point-to-point terrestrial delivery and orbital data centers were other Starship priorities cited in the SpaceX S-1 registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of the June 11 initial public offering.<\/p>\n
\u201cOnce Starship flies, I fully expect that they are not going to offer that up for commercial use for at least a couple of years,\u201d said Chris Quilty, Quilty Space co-CEO and president. \u201cAny company banking on Starship as the solution to their problem better be ready to wait until the 2030 timeframe to get access to that launch vehicle.\u201d<\/p>\n
Space access is a familiar problem for space industry veterans.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen I first came into this industry back in the mid-2000s, the number one challenge for the industry was that launch was extremely rare and very expensive,\u201d Quilty said. \u201cIrony of all ironies, last year, we had 179 launches here in the U.S., and I would tell you that the exact same concern exists. The number one constraint on this industry\u2019s growth is launch.\u201d<\/p>\n
For small satellite builders, SpaceX began simplifying space access with Transporter\u2019s first flight in 2021 and Bandwagon\u2019s in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cAll of a sudden, the spigot got opened on launch,\u201d Hoyt said. \u201cIt became easy and cheap.\u201d<\/p>\n
The abundant flights helped companies test technology and begin establishing the constellations that filled Transporter and Bandwagon manifests.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cRideshare programs are great at providing regular and reliable access to space for a heterogeneous manifest, but when a customer requires multiple satellites on a single launch, the rideshare manifest becomes quickly saturated,\u201d Sproles said.<\/p>\n
If SpaceX intended the rideshares to squash emerging competition from Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab and others, the effort failed, Quilty said. However, SpaceX did establish a rideshare capability \u201cthat the industry is incredibly dependent upon.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
The SpaceX S-1 published before its initial public offering made clear the company is focused on its transition to Starship, but that Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will provide transportation for NASA crew rotation and national security payloads.<\/p>\n
If Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy fly at a diminished rate while Starship begins operations, \u201chopefully that provides enough of a transition path where these newer small to medium launch vehicles can backfill the demand,\u201d Quilty said.<\/p>\n
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