July is a very important month for anyone receiving Social Security benefits because it is the first month of 2026 that will affect the amount of their 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA)<\/a>. <\/p>\n Social Security provides cost-of-living adjustments in most years to help benefits hold their buying power in the face of inflation<\/a>. And COLAs are calculated according to a specific formula. The amount of the COLA is equal to the average increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). However, the COLA formula uses only\u00a0third-quarter CPI-W data. <\/p>\n This means the critical months for Social Security retirees are July, August, and September.\u00a0 <\/p>\n Retirees won’t know the numbers for a while yet <\/p>\n The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the official data on inflation, and those reports run a month behind. That means the CPI-W information for July will be released in mid-August. And since Social Security needs all the numbers from the third quarter to calculate the benefits increase, the official COLA announcement won’t be made until October. <\/p>\n Early projections, however, suggest retirees may be in for the fourth-largest COLA in 36 years, and the largest adjustment since 2023. Of course, those projections are based on CPI-W data from months that don’t count in the COLA calculations. While those numbers show the trendlines, there are reasons to believe the economy is fairly volatile right now. <\/p>\n Ultimately, if inflation surges again in July as a result of continued conflict in Iran, other geopolitical uncertainties, the president’s continued efforts to put tariffs in place, or anything else, retirees are going to be in for a bigger raise in 2027. <\/p>\n However, the fact is that inflation has been higher in recent months, and especially in May, due in large part to soaring energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict. If a deal to resolve the Iran conflict goes through and oil starts flowing again, causing prices to fall, then this year’s COLA may not end up being very large. <\/p>\n The bottom line is, the coming month is going to be very important for Social Security recipients, and it’s well worth paying attention to what happens. <\/p>\n The\u00a0$23,760\u00a0Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook <\/p>\n If you’re like most Americans, you’re a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known\u00a0“Social Security secrets”<\/a> could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more… each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we’re all after. <\/p>\n Many Americans leave money on the table in retirement. Learn more about these retirement strategies and more, available when you join Stock Advisor. <\/p>\n View the “Social Security secrets” \u00bb<\/a> <\/p>\n The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/a> Image source: Getty Images. July is a critical month for retirees for one important reason <\/p>\n