The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The report, which gathers US employers\u2019 estimates of job openings, hires, and separations nationwide, is closely watched by the market as it normally comes ahead of an array of employment gauges released throughout the week, culminating in the key Nonfarm Payrolls report.<\/p>\n
May\u2019s JOLTS figures are likely to be closely watched on Tuesday because they come in a crucial moment, with markets repricing chances of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as inflation keeps rising well above the central bank\u2019s target.<\/p>\n
A high level of uncertainty surrounds the Middle East conflict, and inflationary pressures have failed to abate despite the recent decline in Crude prices. The Fed has reiterated its commitment to fight inflation, boosting investors\u2019 hopes of at least one rate hike this year. In this scenario, this week\u2019s labour market data might be key to assessing the timing of the next monetary policy move and give a fresh boost to US Dollar (USD) volatility.<\/p>\n
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?<\/p>\n
Job openings are expected to come in at 7.3 million in May, according to the market consensus. This is a moderate decline from April\u2019s 7.61 million openings, which was the best reading since July 2024, but still a good reading, as it remains significantly above the 2025 average of 7.08 million openings. If these figures are confirmed, they are likely to endorse the theory of a stabilising US labour market and underpin the narrative of US economic exceptionality.<\/p>\n
April\u2019s JOLTS data beat expectations with a 4.6% monthly increase in job openings \u2013 731,000 new vacancies \u2013 from March\u2019s 6.88 million openings, while quits, layoffs, and discharges were little changed. <\/p>\n
Beyond that, the US Nonfarm Payrolls release reported 172K new jobs in May, completing an impressive performance in the three months to May. These figures boosted market confidence about the US economic resilience to the Middle East war and allowed Fed policymakers to forget about the labor market and focus solely on the overshooting inflationary levels to draw their near-term monetary policy. This new scenario has prompted investors to ramp up bets of some monetary policy tightening in the coming months.<\/p>\n
Source: CME Group’s FedWatch Tool<\/p>\n
Data from the CME Group\u2019s Fedwatch Tool shows that futures markets are pricing a 30% chance of a rate hike at next month\u2019s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and a more than 60% chance of monetary tightening in September, up from\u00a0 6% and 20% respectively a month ago. This week\u2019s employment figures will be analysed to contrast these views.<\/p>\n
\u00a0When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR\/USD?<\/p>\n
Job Openings will be published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. The EUR\/USD is trading at a relatively short distance from the 13-month lows, on track to a 2.17% sell-off in June, and a nearly 3% decline over the last two months.<\/p>\n
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Guillermo Alcal\u00e1, analyst at FXStreet, sees the pair skewed to the downside while the US economy keeps outperforming the Eurozone\u2019s and Iran\u2019s war keeps dampening risk appetite: \u201cThe Euro has remained vulnerable over the last two months amid geopolitical woes and a sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone. Unless the scenario changes significantly, Euro rallies are likely to offer good entry opportunities for sellers. The 13-month low at 1.1325 remains the key support level. Further down, bears might be tempted to revisit the late May 2025 low at 1.1210.\u201d<\/p>\n
To the upside, Alcala sees the 1.1500 and the 1.1620-1.1640 resistance areas as the main hurdles for bulls: \u201cThe pair is struggling to consolidate above 1.1400 at the time of writing in a rebound from the mentioned 13-month lows, which, so far, seems corrective. Bulls should break the 1.1500 area (June 8,11 lows) and preferably also the area between 1.1620 and 1.1640, where late May and early June highs meet the descending trendline from the year-to-date (YTD) highs, to break the negative structure.\u201d<\/p>\n
Economic Indicator<\/p>\n
JOLTS Job Openings<\/p>\n
JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a> to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.<\/p>\n