longtime ESPN baseball writer<\/a> starts with the games he watched as a kid.\u00a0<\/p>\nHe remembers Jim Palmer facing Sandy Koufax in the 1966 World Series and Bob Gibson taking on Denny McLain two years later. Back then, the game’s biggest moments belonged to the men on the mound.<\/p>\n
“Those were the kinds of games baseball was built on, two starting pitchers who went out there thinking they were going to finish the game,” Kurkjian said. “Those days barely exist anymore.”<\/p>\n
For generations, identifying a Hall of Fame starting pitcher was simple: Win 300 games. Strike out 3,000 batters. Take the ball every fifth day and stay on the mound long enough for the numbers to take care of the rest.<\/p>\n
That formula no longer works.<\/p>\n
Pitchers throw harder than ever, but they pitch fewer innings, make fewer starts and rarely finish games. Pitch counts, specialized bullpens and an increased emphasis on load management and injury prevention have reshaped the position.<\/p>\n
“There’s no doubt that everything involving starting pitching has changed,” Kurkjian said. “We’ve lost some of the value we once placed on the starting pitcher.”<\/p>\n
Today’s game, Kurkjian said, is built around bullpen depth rather than workhorse starters.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cBullpens are filled with six, seven, eight guys who all have spectacular stuff,\u201d he said. \u201cSo when a starter gets tired after 100 pitches, you bring in a fresh arm throwing 100 miles an hour.\u201d<\/p>\n
This change in pitching philosophy hasn’t just affected the game itself, but it has altered what modern careers look like. In the 1950s through the 1970s, starters often threw more than 250 innings a season. Today, very few reach 200.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In 2025, only three pitchers surpassed that 200-inning mark. The lack of innings pitched has affected other milestones. Since 2016, only 10 pitchers have become 20-game winners. By comparison, from 1960 to 1962 there were 15.<\/p>\n
These numbers make it clear that expecting modern pitchers to hit traditional milestones is becoming increasingly unrealistic. This raises the question: Should Hall of Fame voters adjust their criteria to fairly judge pitchers in today\u2019s game, and if so, how?<\/p>\n
Jayson Stark, a longtime national writer, Hall of Fame voter and currently a senior baseball writer for The Athletic, believes it\u2019s simple.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe game changes and the sport evolves,\u201d he said. \u201cAs voters, we have to evolve with it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Out with the old<\/p>\n
For Stark, the first step in that evolution is understanding that some statistics previously valued highly can no longer hold as much weight as they did before.<\/p>\n
Case in point: the win.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe haven\u2019t had a starting pitcher make the Hall of Fame under 200 wins since Sandy Koufax,\u201d Stark said. \u201cToday, the win no longer carries the meaning that it always has had in the history of the sport.\u201d<\/p>\n
Stark believes that voters have been heading in this direction for a while.<\/p>\n
\u201cFelix Hernandez is becoming the test case for the win\u2019s value and what it means for Hall of Fame voting,\u201d Stark said. \u201cHe was once the test case for Cy Young voting as well.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen he won the Cy Young with 13 wins in 2010, that to me changed everything.\u201d<\/p>\n
That shift, Stark argued, reflects a broader change in how voters are already assessing modern careers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fact that Felix, a guy I didn\u2019t even vote for in his first year, in his second year on the ballot has roared to getting over 40% of the vote, to me says that voters are ready to adjust,\u201d Stark said.<\/p>\n
That sentiment is not shared by all, however.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Barry Bloom, a Hall of Fame voter since 1992 who currently writes for Forbes, still believes that the win is a major aspect to what makes a Hall of Fame starting pitcher.<\/p>\n
“No one will ever reach 300 wins again, and I understand that,\u201d Bloom said. \u201cBut we just can\u2019t let guys in with less than 200 wins.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bloom believes only a handful of current or recently retired starting pitchers will make the Hall of Fame in the next few decades.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs of now it’s Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, that’s it,\u201d Bloom said. \u201cThese are probably the last guys to reach 200 wins, let alone 300.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian sees the same reality but draws a slightly different conclusion about what it means for future ballots.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve essentially replaced 300 wins with a new benchmark, maybe 200 or 250 wins,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cBut even then, you\u2019d better have a low ERA, a strong strikeout total of 2,500 to 3,000 or it won\u2019t be enough.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian sees the way the trends are going and believes that pitchers with less than 200 wins will eventually start making the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to see it because we have to recognize the environment pitchers are operating in,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cIt\u2019s not their fault they aren\u2019t winning 200 games anymore. They aren\u2019t being allowed to pitch enough innings or make enough starts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian points to Jacob deGrom as an example of why traditional win totals don\u2019t indicate a player\u2019s true dominance.<\/p>\n
\u201cdeGrom is a great example,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cIf he retired today, it would be hard to vote for him based on wins alone. However, his ERA after 250 starts is behind only Kershaw and Tom Seaver in the live-ball era.<\/p>\n
\u201cStuff like that matters.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the profiles of elite starters are changing, he notes that this isn\u2019t uncharted territory for Hall of Fame voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve seen it before with Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cSo I\u2019m certain we\u2019ll see it again.\u201d<\/p>\n
Redefining greatness<\/p>\n
With the win no longer carrying the weight it once did, a natural question arises: What should voters look at now to determine whether a pitcher is truly worthy of the Hall of Fame?\u00a0<\/p>\n
For Stark, it\u2019s all about defining greatness, which he notes has changed over time.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re defining greatness in different ways than we ever have,\u201d Stark said. \u201cFor me, the best gauges of greatness are strikeout rates, WHIP, and ERA. You also have to look at the pitcher’s workload and how long he was doing it effectively.\u201d<\/p>\n
That shift, he says, isn\u2019t optional; it\u2019s necessary.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe way we used to vote and the standards we used just don\u2019t work anymore,\u201d Stark said. \u201cWe need to find other ways to measure dominance.\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the most valuable tools in that effort is context-based metrics.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cERA+ is a great measure of dominance because it\u2019s a pitcher\u2019s ERA adjusted to compare him to others in his era,\u201d Stark said.<\/p>\n
He points to deGrom to prove how those metrics can better capture modern greatness.<\/p>\n
\u201cJacob deGrom has two Cy Youngs and years of dominance, but he still doesn\u2019t have a high win total,\u201d Stark said. \u201cBut we know he\u2019s one of the most dominant pitchers of his era because of his strikeout rate, WHIP and ERA+. Those stats tell you how dominant he has been compared to everyone around him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian also highlights the importance of winning Cy Young awards.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Cy Young has always carried weight when it comes to Hall of Fame voting, but even more so now because wins aren\u2019t what they used to be,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cSo, if a pitcher has multiple Cy Youngs, that matters a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian believes that while advanced metrics are useful, voters need to be cautious when relying on them.<\/p>\n
\u201cWAR in particular is complicated. It\u2019s useful, but it varies depending on who calculates it because places like Baseball Reference and Fangraphs all differ slightly,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cSo I do use it as part of the evaluation, but not as the deciding factor.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
A different future<\/p>\n
If redefining greatness is the present challenge for Hall of Fame voters, projecting it into the future may be even more difficult. The changes shaping today\u2019s game are not temporary, they are structural.<\/p>\n
For Stark, that reality raises a larger concern about what the position itself is becoming.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe sport has effectively divided the position,\u201d Stark said. \u201cBecause of that, I don\u2019t think we\u2019ll ever again see starting pitchers used in the same way or be as central to the game as they once were.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey used to be the most important players on the field, but now they’re just not.\u201d<\/p>\n
If starting pitchers are no longer asked to carry the same workload or dominate games in the same way, their Hall of Fame cases will inevitably look different and, in some cases, weaker by traditional standards.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s where the uncertainty begins.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the question becomes:\u2019What does a Hall of Fame starting pitcher\u2019s career look like 30 years from now?\u2019\u201d Stark asked.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a question without a clear answer, but one that voters know is coming quickly.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe voters of the future \u2013 the fans, the writers, the committees of 2056 \u2013 will be the ones making those calls,\u201d Stark said. \u201cAnd they\u2019ll be doing it in a completely different game than the one we know now.\u201d<\/p>\n
That disconnect between past and future is already creating tension in how voters evaluate players whose careers fall in between eras.<\/p>\n
Stark points to the possibility of an entire generation of pitchers whose dominance may never fully translate through traditional metrics.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re already ending up with a generation of elite starters, like deGrom, who dominate in every possible way but don\u2019t accumulate the traditional numbers,\u201d Stark said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf that happens, do we open the door for an entirely different group of pitchers from the same era, guys like Zack Wheeler, who may end up with 130 or 140 wins under very different usage patterns?\u201d<\/p>\n
Those questions don\u2019t just affect future candidates, they may even reshape how past players are remembered.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat happens then?\u201d Stark said. \u201cDo those new standards push out the last generation of workhorse starters we\u2019ve already seen \u2013 guys like Johan Santana?\u201d<\/p>\n
The statistical foundation that once defined Hall of Fame starters is disappearing, and there is no clear consensus on what replaces it. At the same time, this may create opportunity elsewhere, particularly in the bullpen.<\/p>\n
Kurkjian believes the evolution of pitching roles will inevitably shift Hall of Fame recognition toward relievers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe way bullpens are used today has completely changed the game,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cWe now have specialized relievers everywhere, and that will impact Hall of Fame voting.\u201d<\/p>\n
He points to Billy Wagner as a turning point.<\/p>\n
\u201cBilly Wagner got in with under 1,000 innings pitched. That changes the baseline,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cWhen you start electing relievers like that, it opens the door for others who dominate for 15 or 20 years in high-leverage roles.<\/p>\n
\u201cDeep bullpens win championships now. That\u2019s the modern game, and it will lead to more relievers being recognized.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the back end of the pitching staff gains value, the front end continues to evolve into something new. Kurkjian believes the next generation of Hall of Fame starters will look nothing like the ones who came before.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019ll look very different,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cHe\u2019ll likely have fewer innings and fewer wins than past generations, maybe getting 150 to 175 wins.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the trade-off comes in dominance instead of volume.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019ll have elite strikeout numbers, maybe 10 strikeouts per nine innings, a WHIP around 1.00 or lower, and dominant ERA metrics,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cThat\u2019s where the game is headed.\u201d<\/p>\n
What was once rare has now become the norm.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe strikeout rates today are already far beyond what used to be normal,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cWhat once was rare, like Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson level, is now common.\u201d<\/p>\n
As long as the sport continues to prioritize velocity and power, those trends will only continue.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs long as pitchers are being asked to throw as hard as possible on every pitch, and as long as the game prioritizes velocity and strikeouts, we\u2019ll continue to see fewer innings and fewer wins, but more dominance in power statistics,\u201d Kurkjian said.<\/p>\n
That reality reinforces what may be the most important takeaway for voters: Adaptation is no longer a philosophical debate, it\u2019s a necessity.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to have to adapt,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cTake a pitcher like Paul Skenes. If he pitches 10 years for a struggling team and averages 12 or 13 wins a season but posts a 2.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts per nine innings, people are going to vote for him because voters will understand it\u2019s not his fault, it\u2019s the industry\u2019s fault.\u201d<\/p>\n
In other words, the numbers may change, the roles may evolve, the standards may shift but the responsibility remains the same.<\/p>\n
To recognize greatness, even when it no longer looks the way it used to look.<\/p>\n
This <a target=”_blank” href=”https:\/\/cronkitenews.azpbs.org\/2026\/07\/02\/hall-of-fame-voters-debate-starting-pitcher-standards\/”>article<\/a> first appeared on <a target=”_blank” href=”https:\/\/cronkitenews.azpbs.org”>Cronkite News<\/a> and is republished here under a <a target=”_blank” href=”https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/”>Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License<\/a>.<img src=”https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cronkitenews.azpbs.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/favicon1.png?resize=85%2C85&ssl=1″ style=”width:1em;height:1em;margin-left:10px;”><\/p>\n
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\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tModern pitching forces MLB Hall of Fame voters to rethink greatness<\/p>\n
Tyler Piester, Cronkite News
\nJuly 2, 2026<\/p>\n
PHOENIX \u2013 When Tim Kurkjian talks about starting pitching, he doesn’t begin with numbers and analytics. The longtime ESPN baseball writer starts with the games he watched as a kid.\u00a0<\/p>\n
He remembers Jim Palmer facing Sandy Koufax in the 1966 World Series and Bob Gibson taking on Denny McLain two years later. Back then, the game’s biggest moments belonged to the men on the mound.<\/p>\n
“Those were the kinds of games baseball was built on, two starting pitchers who went out there thinking they were going to finish the game,” Kurkjian said. “Those days barely exist anymore.”<\/p>\n
For generations, identifying a Hall of Fame starting pitcher was simple: Win 300 games. Strike out 3,000 batters. Take the ball every fifth day and stay on the mound long enough for the numbers to take care of the rest.<\/p>\n
That formula no longer works.<\/p>\n
Pitchers throw harder than ever, but they pitch fewer innings, make fewer starts and rarely finish games. Pitch counts, specialized bullpens and an increased emphasis on load management and injury prevention have reshaped the position.<\/p>\n
“There’s no doubt that everything involving starting pitching has changed,” Kurkjian said. “We’ve lost some of the value we once placed on the starting pitcher.”<\/p>\n
Today’s game, Kurkjian said, is built around bullpen depth rather than workhorse starters.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cBullpens are filled with six, seven, eight guys who all have spectacular stuff,\u201d he said. \u201cSo when a starter gets tired after 100 pitches, you bring in a fresh arm throwing 100 miles an hour.\u201d<\/p>\n
This change in pitching philosophy hasn’t just affected the game itself, but it has altered what modern careers look like. In the 1950s through the 1970s, starters often threw more than 250 innings a season. Today, very few reach 200.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In 2025, only three pitchers surpassed that 200-inning mark. The lack of innings pitched has affected other milestones. Since 2016, only 10 pitchers have become 20-game winners. By comparison, from 1960 to 1962 there were 15.<\/p>\n
These numbers make it clear that expecting modern pitchers to hit traditional milestones is becoming increasingly unrealistic. This raises the question: Should Hall of Fame voters adjust their criteria to fairly judge pitchers in today\u2019s game, and if so, how?<\/p>\n
Jayson Stark, a longtime national writer, Hall of Fame voter and currently a senior baseball writer for The Athletic, believes it\u2019s simple.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe game changes and the sport evolves,\u201d he said. \u201cAs voters, we have to evolve with it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Out with the old<\/p>\n
For Stark, the first step in that evolution is understanding that some statistics previously valued highly can no longer hold as much weight as they did before.<\/p>\n
Case in point: the win.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe haven\u2019t had a starting pitcher make the Hall of Fame under 200 wins since Sandy Koufax,\u201d Stark said. \u201cToday, the win no longer carries the meaning that it always has had in the history of the sport.\u201d<\/p>\n
Stark believes that voters have been heading in this direction for a while.<\/p>\n
\u201cFelix Hernandez is becoming the test case for the win\u2019s value and what it means for Hall of Fame voting,\u201d Stark said. \u201cHe was once the test case for Cy Young voting as well.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen he won the Cy Young with 13 wins in 2010, that to me changed everything.\u201d<\/p>\n
That shift, Stark argued, reflects a broader change in how voters are already assessing modern careers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fact that Felix, a guy I didn\u2019t even vote for in his first year, in his second year on the ballot has roared to getting over 40% of the vote, to me says that voters are ready to adjust,\u201d Stark said.<\/p>\n
That sentiment is not shared by all, however.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Barry Bloom, a Hall of Fame voter since 1992 who currently writes for Forbes, still believes that the win is a major aspect to what makes a Hall of Fame starting pitcher.<\/p>\n
“No one will ever reach 300 wins again, and I understand that,\u201d Bloom said. \u201cBut we just can\u2019t let guys in with less than 200 wins.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bloom believes only a handful of current or recently retired starting pitchers will make the Hall of Fame in the next few decades.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs of now it’s Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, that’s it,\u201d Bloom said. \u201cThese are probably the last guys to reach 200 wins, let alone 300.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian sees the same reality but draws a slightly different conclusion about what it means for future ballots.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve essentially replaced 300 wins with a new benchmark, maybe 200 or 250 wins,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cBut even then, you\u2019d better have a low ERA, a strong strikeout total of 2,500 to 3,000 or it won\u2019t be enough.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian sees the way the trends are going and believes that pitchers with less than 200 wins will eventually start making the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to see it because we have to recognize the environment pitchers are operating in,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cIt\u2019s not their fault they aren\u2019t winning 200 games anymore. They aren\u2019t being allowed to pitch enough innings or make enough starts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian points to Jacob deGrom as an example of why traditional win totals don\u2019t indicate a player\u2019s true dominance.<\/p>\n
\u201cdeGrom is a great example,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cIf he retired today, it would be hard to vote for him based on wins alone. However, his ERA after 250 starts is behind only Kershaw and Tom Seaver in the live-ball era.<\/p>\n
\u201cStuff like that matters.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the profiles of elite starters are changing, he notes that this isn\u2019t uncharted territory for Hall of Fame voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve seen it before with Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cSo I\u2019m certain we\u2019ll see it again.\u201d<\/p>\n
Redefining greatness<\/p>\n
With the win no longer carrying the weight it once did, a natural question arises: What should voters look at now to determine whether a pitcher is truly worthy of the Hall of Fame?\u00a0<\/p>\n
For Stark, it\u2019s all about defining greatness, which he notes has changed over time.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re defining greatness in different ways than we ever have,\u201d Stark said. \u201cFor me, the best gauges of greatness are strikeout rates, WHIP, and ERA. You also have to look at the pitcher’s workload and how long he was doing it effectively.\u201d<\/p>\n
That shift, he says, isn\u2019t optional; it\u2019s necessary.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe way we used to vote and the standards we used just don\u2019t work anymore,\u201d Stark said. \u201cWe need to find other ways to measure dominance.\u201d<\/p>\n
One of the most valuable tools in that effort is context-based metrics.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cERA+ is a great measure of dominance because it\u2019s a pitcher\u2019s ERA adjusted to compare him to others in his era,\u201d Stark said.<\/p>\n
He points to deGrom to prove how those metrics can better capture modern greatness.<\/p>\n
\u201cJacob deGrom has two Cy Youngs and years of dominance, but he still doesn\u2019t have a high win total,\u201d Stark said. \u201cBut we know he\u2019s one of the most dominant pitchers of his era because of his strikeout rate, WHIP and ERA+. Those stats tell you how dominant he has been compared to everyone around him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian also highlights the importance of winning Cy Young awards.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Cy Young has always carried weight when it comes to Hall of Fame voting, but even more so now because wins aren\u2019t what they used to be,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cSo, if a pitcher has multiple Cy Youngs, that matters a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kurkjian believes that while advanced metrics are useful, voters need to be cautious when relying on them.<\/p>\n
\u201cWAR in particular is complicated. It\u2019s useful, but it varies depending on who calculates it because places like Baseball Reference and Fangraphs all differ slightly,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cSo I do use it as part of the evaluation, but not as the deciding factor.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
A different future<\/p>\n
If redefining greatness is the present challenge for Hall of Fame voters, projecting it into the future may be even more difficult. The changes shaping today\u2019s game are not temporary, they are structural.<\/p>\n
For Stark, that reality raises a larger concern about what the position itself is becoming.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe sport has effectively divided the position,\u201d Stark said. \u201cBecause of that, I don\u2019t think we\u2019ll ever again see starting pitchers used in the same way or be as central to the game as they once were.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey used to be the most important players on the field, but now they’re just not.\u201d<\/p>\n
If starting pitchers are no longer asked to carry the same workload or dominate games in the same way, their Hall of Fame cases will inevitably look different and, in some cases, weaker by traditional standards.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s where the uncertainty begins.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo the question becomes:\u2019What does a Hall of Fame starting pitcher\u2019s career look like 30 years from now?\u2019\u201d Stark asked.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a question without a clear answer, but one that voters know is coming quickly.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe voters of the future \u2013 the fans, the writers, the committees of 2056 \u2013 will be the ones making those calls,\u201d Stark said. \u201cAnd they\u2019ll be doing it in a completely different game than the one we know now.\u201d<\/p>\n
That disconnect between past and future is already creating tension in how voters evaluate players whose careers fall in between eras.<\/p>\n
Stark points to the possibility of an entire generation of pitchers whose dominance may never fully translate through traditional metrics.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re already ending up with a generation of elite starters, like deGrom, who dominate in every possible way but don\u2019t accumulate the traditional numbers,\u201d Stark said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf that happens, do we open the door for an entirely different group of pitchers from the same era, guys like Zack Wheeler, who may end up with 130 or 140 wins under very different usage patterns?\u201d<\/p>\n
Those questions don\u2019t just affect future candidates, they may even reshape how past players are remembered.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat happens then?\u201d Stark said. \u201cDo those new standards push out the last generation of workhorse starters we\u2019ve already seen \u2013 guys like Johan Santana?\u201d<\/p>\n
The statistical foundation that once defined Hall of Fame starters is disappearing, and there is no clear consensus on what replaces it. At the same time, this may create opportunity elsewhere, particularly in the bullpen.<\/p>\n
Kurkjian believes the evolution of pitching roles will inevitably shift Hall of Fame recognition toward relievers.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe way bullpens are used today has completely changed the game,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cWe now have specialized relievers everywhere, and that will impact Hall of Fame voting.\u201d<\/p>\n
He points to Billy Wagner as a turning point.<\/p>\n
\u201cBilly Wagner got in with under 1,000 innings pitched. That changes the baseline,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cWhen you start electing relievers like that, it opens the door for others who dominate for 15 or 20 years in high-leverage roles.<\/p>\n
\u201cDeep bullpens win championships now. That\u2019s the modern game, and it will lead to more relievers being recognized.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the back end of the pitching staff gains value, the front end continues to evolve into something new. Kurkjian believes the next generation of Hall of Fame starters will look nothing like the ones who came before.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019ll look very different,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cHe\u2019ll likely have fewer innings and fewer wins than past generations, maybe getting 150 to 175 wins.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the trade-off comes in dominance instead of volume.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019ll have elite strikeout numbers, maybe 10 strikeouts per nine innings, a WHIP around 1.00 or lower, and dominant ERA metrics,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cThat\u2019s where the game is headed.\u201d<\/p>\n
What was once rare has now become the norm.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe strikeout rates today are already far beyond what used to be normal,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cWhat once was rare, like Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson level, is now common.\u201d<\/p>\n
As long as the sport continues to prioritize velocity and power, those trends will only continue.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs long as pitchers are being asked to throw as hard as possible on every pitch, and as long as the game prioritizes velocity and strikeouts, we\u2019ll continue to see fewer innings and fewer wins, but more dominance in power statistics,\u201d Kurkjian said.<\/p>\n
That reality reinforces what may be the most important takeaway for voters: Adaptation is no longer a philosophical debate, it\u2019s a necessity.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to have to adapt,\u201d Kurkjian said. \u201cTake a pitcher like Paul Skenes. If he pitches 10 years for a struggling team and averages 12 or 13 wins a season but posts a 2.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts per nine innings, people are going to vote for him because voters will understand it\u2019s not his fault, it\u2019s the industry\u2019s fault.\u201d<\/p>\n
In other words, the numbers may change, the roles may evolve, the standards may shift but the responsibility remains the same.<\/p>\n
To recognize greatness, even when it no longer looks the way it used to look.<\/p>\n
This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.<\/p>\n
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