As fireworks explode across America for our 250th birthday celebration, the Pittsburgh Penguins could consider a few explosive fireworks of their own. <\/p>\n
After all, why stock draft picks that may or may not pan out for a rebuild if you can buy a restricted free agent star and start the process over with some prospects, Ben Kindel, Sidney Crosby, and a young cornerstone?<\/p>\n
Two days ago, the following suggestion would have been ludicrous and a just cause for absolute derision. Still, the Philadelphia Flyers dumped the hockey world on its head Thursday with an M-80 of a contract, offer sheeting Anaheim Ducks restricted free agent center Leo Carlsson with a five-year, $90 million deal laden with massive annual signing bonuses north of $15 million. <\/p>\n
Carlsson might join the Flyers, who have been piling young assets for a few years, and have other younger players in place, including Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, and Porter Martone. <\/p>\n
While the focus will be on the specific situation, the fallout will be equally massive. The price for No. 1 centers just spikes, the cost of trades just increased\u2013after all, if Carlsson is worth four first-round picks, Jason Robertson is worth more than three firsts\u2013and the competition just increased for everything. <\/p>\n
So, what shall the Penguins and general manager Kyle Dubas do in the brand new world? Of course, the safest, most prudent play is to stay on course, whatever that might be. Keep trying to trade for Robertson, or a high-profile player to facilitate the next era of the Penguins\u2019 regeneration, spending less than four first-round picks. <\/p>\n
Or, Dubas could get a running start and cannonball into the pool of insanity. Not only is Jason Robertson an RFA, but so too are Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli. <\/p>\n
Robertson posted another stellar 45-goal. 96-point season. Bedard, 20, is one of the great young centers in the game. Fantilli, 21, is a solid No. 1 center, though his stats in Columbus are muted (24-35-59). <\/p>\n
First, any RFA signing over $11,939,166 will cost a team four first-round picks. So, in such a scenario, kiss the first-round picks of 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030 goodbye. <\/p>\n
Second, while Dallas is relatively cap-poor, they have just under $10 million, they are negotiating with Robertson for a deal well above that. Dallas GM Jim Nill clearly knows he can shed money when needed. However, Columbus has a full roster and nearly $22 million in cap space, while Chicago is largely settled with almost $30 million. <\/p>\n
In other words, the Penguins or any other team would be unable to make an offer that Columbus or Chicago couldn\u2019t afford. <\/p>\n
But Robertson? The view here is that Robertson is a great player but is not worth four first-rounders, at least from the Penguins, with the cold reason being that Robertson is a brilliant complementary player, but not one who is going to carry a team without other great players. More specifically, even with Robertson and Sidney Crosby and Ben Kindel and another prospect or two that hit, the Penguins would need to go big in free agency to be a real playoff team. <\/p>\n
Unless a lot of other things go right, even with Robertson, the Penguins\u2019 draft picks are likely going to be mid-first-round at worst. Don\u2019t let the fluky nature of 2025-26 become an expectation. The Penguins\u2019 free agent success was far more than they could have hoped, and the chance to repeat that success has an extraordinary degree of difficulty and unlikeliness. <\/p>\n
And as we saw this year, the free agent pickings are slim as the salary cap spike gives teams the space to sign their pending UFAs. So, even with Robertson, the Penguins won\u2019t have a lot of external options with which to build. <\/p>\n
Lest we forget, Crosby will be 39 years old. Erik Karlsson is 36 and has one year left on his deal. Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are coming to the end, and Letang is declining. <\/p>\n
So, the play would be to so badly overpay either Bedard or Fantilli that either Chicago or Columbus would choose the draft picks.<\/p>\n
Yes, the Penguins could build around Bedard, but that\u2019s a lot tougher without first-round picks. Would Dubas have the chutzpah to do something so brazen, then trade away nearly all of the veteran players to recoup some of the picks? <\/p>\n
In the fantasy world we\u2019re now living, I guess so.<\/p>\n
In complete fairness, as readers pointed out, before Ben Kindel, the Penguins\u2019 first-rounders haven\u2019t exactly beaten a path to Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n
Brayden Yager (traded for Rutger McGroarty), Owen Pickering, Sam Poulin, Kasperi Kapanen (traded for Phil Kessel in 2015, then later reacquired for the 2020 first-rounder), Derrick Pouliot, and Olli Maatta. <\/p>\n
At least Maatta made an impact. <\/p>\n
Just a few days ago, this would have been madness and labeled \u201cPlayStation GM\u2019ing.\u201d But we are here. It\u2019s entirely silly, but it\u2019s now possible. <\/p>\n
If the Penguins indeed have the wild hare, go for it. None of it makes sense, but why not? We don\u2019t believe Robertson would be a good enough get for four first-rounders, and the Penguins would regret it in a few years when their core is gone. Bedard would almost assuredly be matched, and Fantilli isn\u2019t worth four first-rounders, but this is the land of confusion.<\/p>\n
Of course, the Penguins could stay the course, take their lumps, trade away players for assets, and get high draft picks as stop-gap free agents like Andrei Kuzmenko and Trevor van Riemsdyk come and go. No, that\u2019s not as sexy or headline-grabbing, but with good people and decisions, it\u2019s usually successful\u2013sooner or later. <\/p>\n
But if the Penguins are hellbent on an impact player right now, do it. Hey, why not?<\/p>\n