{"id":747138,"date":"2026-07-06T20:44:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T20:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/747138\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T20:44:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T20:44:11","slug":"my-take-on-the-zero-sum-new-vehicle-market-in-the-us-decades-of-stagnation-decline-interrupted-by-steep-plunges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/747138\/","title":{"rendered":"My Take on the Zero-Sum New-Vehicle Market in the US: Decades of Stagnation & Decline Interrupted by Steep Plunges"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t But not all automakers are losers in this tough market.
\nBy\u00a0Wolf Richter<\/a>\u00a0for\u00a0WOLF STREET<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sales of new light vehicles \u2013 pickups, SUVs, crossovers, sedans, vans, etc. \u2013 inched up 0.5% year-over-year in Q2 to 4.22 million vehicles, after having dropped by 6.3% year-over-year in Q1.\u00a0 For the first half, new vehicle sales are down by 2.8% from a year ago, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<\/p>\n

But March and April 2025 had been marked by tariff front-running, and sales had spiked during those two months as people had believed the clickbait in the media that tariffs would cause new vehicle prices to explode. When that didn\u2019t happen, sales fell in the months that followed. So the year-over-year comparisons have those distortions to contend with.<\/p>\n

Ford deliveries plunged by 10% year-over-year in Q2, and GM\u2019s deliveries dropped by 4%, but Hyundai-Kia\u2019s deliveries have been rising from record to record, and did so again in Q2. Sales by other automakers also rose, including those of Stellantis and Nissan, by 6% and 10% respectively, from the collapsed levels a year ago<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sales in Q2 2026 (4.22 million vehicles) were below Q2 1978 (4.39 million), below Q2 1986 (4.27 million), barely above Q2 1988 and 1996 (each 4.18 million), below Q2 1998 (4.43 million), below Q2 1999 (4.60 million), below Q2 2000 (4.73 million, the Q2 record), below Q2 2001 (4.57 million), etc. etc.<\/p>\n

You get the idea of the long-term problem for automakers in the US: Overall sales have been stagnant or declining for 50 years, interrupted by steep plunges, despite population growth and economic growth.<\/p>\n

A big reason that new-vehicle sales have been in long-term stagnation or decline, interrupted by deep plunges, is that automakers, in their short-termism and allegiance to Wall Street, kept going upscale year after year and jacking up prices to fatten their profit margins and please Wall Street \u2013 with the big three US automakers going as far as scuttling their sedan models because their profit margins were thinner than on trucks and SUVs \u2013 thereby losing customers in the process, which caused unit sales to decline further.<\/p>\n

As the big automakers \u2013 specifically GM, Ford, and what is now Stellantis \u2013 have fallen into this trap, other automakers have not, particularly Hyundai-Kia, and their sales continued to soar from record to record. Not all automakers are losers in this zero-sum game (my charts of annual sales by automaker<\/a> through 2025).<\/p>\n

With the first six months under the belt, we can now estimate annual sales for 2026 to come out slightly below the annual sales of 2025.<\/p>\n

Annual new vehicle sales had peaked in 2000 and 2016, each followed by a long deep plunge and a slow recovery.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In this kind of zero-sum market, growth by one automaker means declines at others.<\/p>\n

Top 7 automakers\u2019 deliveries in Q2 and the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n

#1 General Motors, Q2 deliveries: -4.2%\u00a0year-over-year, to 714,896 vehicles, all brands combined.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: -6.8% year-over-year, to 1,341,325 vehicles.<\/p>\n

#2 Toyota, Q2 deliveries: +1.1%\u00a0year-over-year, to 673,971 vehicles, Toyota and Lexus brands combined.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: +0.5% year-over-year, to 1,243,391 vehicles, with Lexus sales -5.2% and Toyota sales +1.5%.<\/p>\n

#3 Ford, Q2 deliveries: -10.3%\u00a0year-over-year,\u00a0to 549,200 vehicles, Ford and Lincoln brands combined.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: -9.6% year-over-year, 1,006,515 vehicles.<\/p>\n

\u00a0#4 Hyundai-Kia, Q2 deliveries:\u00a0+2.8%\u00a0year-over-year,\u00a0to 468,892 vehicles, a record Q2.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: 3.0% year-over-year, to 881,295 vehicles.<\/p>\n

Hyundai is the parent company of Kia, with Hyundai holding a 33.9% stake in Kia, and Kia holding stakes in Hyundai subsidiaries, and they share vehicle platforms. For our purposes here, the duo counts as one automaker with different brands.<\/p>\n

The automaker has been the big winner in the zero-sum US auto market, along with Tesla, taking share away from the others and growing relentlessly at their expense.<\/p>\n

#5 Honda, Q2 deliveries: +8.4%\u00a0year-over-year, to 420,089 vehicles, Honda and Acura brands combined.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: +2.4% year-over-year, to 756,920 vehicles.<\/p>\n

But these year-over-year increases leave sales well below the peak in 2017. Full-year 2025 sales were down by 13% from the 2017 peak.<\/p>\n

#6 Stellantis, Q2 deliveries: +5.9%\u00a0year-over-year, all brands combined, to 328,284 vehicles, ticking up from the abysmal levels last year. Annual 2025 deliveries were\u00a0down by 44% from the peak in 2015.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: +5.2% year-over-year, to 634,345 vehicles.<\/p>\n

#7 Nissan Q2 deliveries: +10.2%\u00a0year-over-year, to 230,443 vehicles, Nissan and Infiniti combined, from the collapsed levels a year ago: Annual 2025 deliveries were\u00a0down by 42% from the peak in 2017.<\/p>\n

YTD deliveries: +0.4% year-over-year, to 464,761 vehicles.<\/p>\n

Tesla\u00a0only discloses global sales, not US sales. In Q2, Tesla\u2019s global deliveries rose 25% year-over-year from the abysmal sales in Q2 last year, to 480,126 vehicles, squeaking past the prior Q2 record set in Q2 2023, as high gasoline prices globally caused demand for EVs to re-surge. But Tesla doesn\u2019t report US sales, so it doesn\u2019t fit into this lineup. Here\u2019s my report on Tesla\u2019s Q2 global deliveries<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

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