{"id":756919,"date":"2026-07-11T15:34:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T15:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/756919\/"},"modified":"2026-07-11T15:34:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T15:34:15","slug":"quebecs-population-is-shifting-and-not-every-region-will-grow-the-same-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/756919\/","title":{"rendered":"Quebec’s population is shifting \u2014 and not every region will grow the same way"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Text<\/p>\n

Listen to this article<\/p>\n

Estimated 4 minutes<\/p>\n

The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology. Mispronunciations can occur. We are working with our partners to continually review and improve the results.<\/p>\n

Quebec\u2019s population is expected to change significantly over the next quarter century, but not every region will experience those changes in the same way.<\/p>\n

New projections from the Institut de la statistique du Qu\u00e9bec (ISQ) suggest population growth will become increasingly uneven across the province. <\/p>\n

While some regions are expected to continue attracting residents, others \u2014 including Montreal \u2014 could see its population shrink if current demographic trends continue. <\/p>\n

The projections reflect broader demographic challenges facing Quebec, including lower birth rates and an aging population. <\/p>\n

\"PartsParts of Quebec could see its population shrink over the coming decades. (Source: Institut de la statistique du Qu\u00e9bec)<\/p>\n

According to the ISQ\u2019s reference scenario, the Capitale-Nationale region is expected to record the strongest long-term growth through 2051, followed by the Chaudi\u00e8re-Appalaches region. <\/p>\n

Quebec City’s metropolitan area and the Drummondville metropolitan area are also projected to have some of the province\u2019s highest population increases. <\/p>\n

Island of Montreal’s population could decline by 4.5%<\/p>\n

Across Quebec, the outlook varies considerably by region.<\/p>\n

Areas surrounding Montreal, including the Laurentians, Lanaudi\u00e8re and Mont\u00e9r\u00e9gie regions, are also expected to continue growing, reflecting the ongoing movement of residents toward suburban communities. <\/p>\n

In contrast, the administrative region of Montreal is projected to experience one of the weakest performances. <\/p>\n

\"TheThe Quebec City metropolitan area and the Drummondville metropolitan area are also projected to have some of the province\u2019s highest population increases. (Source: Institut de la statistique du Qu\u00e9bec)<\/p>\n

The latest projections suggest the island\u2019s population could decline by roughly 4.5 per cent between 2021 and 2051, while some more remote regions, including the C\u00f4te-Nord, are also expected to experience a decline over the longer term. <\/p>\n

Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Fleury-Payeur, a demographer with the ISQ, says it\u2019s important to understand what those numbers represent.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese are projections, not predictions,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re simply extending today\u2019s demographic trends into the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Immigration as an important factor <\/p>\n

The projections are based on several factors, including fertility rates, deaths and different types of migration. According to Fleury-Payeur, migration remains the most influential factor in determining how population evolves across Quebec.<\/p>\n

Immigration within the province is increasingly spreading beyond Montreal, a trend the report says has become more pronounced over the past decade.<\/p>\n

\"Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ricFr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Fleury-Payeur, a demographer with the ISQ, says migration remains the most influential factor in determining how population evolves across Quebec. (Camille Carpentier\/Radio-Canada)<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople often come to Montreal for school or work,\u201d Fleury-Payeur explained. <\/p>\n

\u201cLater, when they\u2019re looking to buy a home or start a family, many move to the suburbs or return to their region of origin.\u201d<\/p>\n

That pattern has existed for decades and is one of the main drivers behind the projections, he said.<\/p>\n

The latest projections also assume the Quebec government will reduce the number of temporary residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers, over the next several years. <\/p>\n

Housing demands will remain high <\/p>\n

Even as population growth slows \u2014 or declines \u2014 in some areas, the housing demand is still expected to increase. <\/p>\n

This comes as some parts of Quebec are already facing an affordability crisis. <\/p>\n

Fleury-Payeur says the explanation behind why housing demands will remain high despite the demographics lies in Quebec household changes.<\/p>\n

As the population ages, more people live alone or in collective housing such as seniors\u2019 residences and long-term care homes, he says. That means more housing units are needed even if the overall number of residents remains stable or declines.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a mechanical effect of the way households are composed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Fleury-Payeur cautions that the projections are not meant to forecast exactly what will happen. Changes to immigration policies, economic conditions or demographic behaviour could all alter the province\u2019s trajectory.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one has a crystal ball,\u201d he said. \u201cOur role is to show what the future could look like if today\u2019s trends continue.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Listen to this article Estimated 4 minutes The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":756920,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[192,79],"class_list":["post-756919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/756919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=756919"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/756919\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/756920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=756919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=756919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=756919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}