We have made it to the All-Star break, and as long as we don\u2019t have real games to watch anyway, we may as well look back on what\u2019s happened so far, and where the season\u2019s headed.<\/p>\n
With that sentiment in mind, this week I\u2019m looking at every hitter I told you to buy and sell so far (except for last week), and we\u2019ll see if the label I gave them still holds. To keep this as legible as possible, I chose a single stat to evaluate hitters before and after I wrote about them, and that stat is wRC+. For the uninitiated, wRC+ takes everything a hitter does at the plate and spits out a number: 100 is league average, 110 is 10% above league average, 99 is 1% below league average, etc. It adjusts for a player\u2019s park and the overall offensive environment (so 100 doesn\u2019t mean the same thing in the steroid era as the dead ball era).<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a great catch-all stat, but, like any, it has its limitations. It doesn\u2019t account for playing time or counting stats, so we\u2019ll have to do some mental adjustments, especially for players who get a lot of value from steals. That said, how a hitter does with the stick is the main determinant of their value, and the most sustainable part of their performance. Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n
Buy recommendations
\n DatePlayerwRC+ at writingwRC+ at ASGwRC+ Diff.<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
46<\/p>\n
108<\/p>\n
62<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
104<\/p>\n
119<\/p>\n
15<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
107<\/p>\n
140<\/p>\n
33<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
134<\/p>\n
119<\/p>\n
-15<\/p>\n
5\/5\/26<\/p>\n
53<\/p>\n
81<\/p>\n
28<\/p>\n
5\/5\/26<\/p>\n
78<\/p>\n
118<\/p>\n
40<\/p>\n
5\/12\/26<\/p>\n
92<\/p>\n
64<\/p>\n
-28<\/p>\n
5\/12\/26<\/p>\n
135<\/p>\n
166<\/p>\n
31<\/p>\n
5\/12\/26<\/p>\n
73<\/p>\n
126<\/p>\n
53<\/p>\n
5\/19\/26<\/p>\n
n\/a<\/p>\n
73<\/p>\n
n\/a<\/p>\n
5\/19\/26<\/p>\n
86<\/p>\n
103<\/p>\n
17<\/p>\n
5\/19\/26<\/p>\n
102<\/p>\n
102<\/p>\n
0<\/p>\n
5\/27\/26<\/p>\n
89<\/p>\n
210<\/p>\n
121<\/p>\n
5\/27\/26<\/p>\n
114<\/p>\n
125<\/p>\n
11<\/p>\n
6\/2\/26<\/p>\n
116<\/p>\n
139<\/p>\n
23<\/p>\n
6\/2\/26<\/p>\n
63<\/p>\n
142<\/p>\n
79<\/p>\n
6\/9\/26<\/p>\n
112<\/p>\n
127<\/p>\n
15<\/p>\n
6\/9\/26<\/p>\n
107<\/p>\n
114<\/p>\n
7<\/p>\n
6\/16\/26<\/p>\n
126<\/p>\n
90<\/p>\n
-36<\/p>\n
6\/16\/26<\/p>\n
127<\/p>\n
142<\/p>\n
15<\/p>\n
6\/23\/26<\/p>\n
129<\/p>\n
155<\/p>\n
26<\/p>\n
6\/23<\/p>\n
109<\/p>\n
118<\/p>\n
9<\/p>\n
6\/30\/26<\/p>\n
96<\/p>\n
137<\/p>\n
41<\/p>\n
6\/30\/26<\/p>\n
106<\/p>\n
147<\/p>\n
41<\/p>\n
6\/30\/26<\/p>\n
142<\/p>\n
51<\/p>\n
-91<\/p>\n
(One more note: I omitted the occasional name, like Roman Anthony, who couldn\u2019t handle the pressure of being mentioned here and immediately went on the IL.)<\/p>\n
I was surprised that I listed Caleb Durbin as a buy, and even more surprised that it actually worked out. I usually don\u2019t have nice things to say about players who don\u2019t hit the ball with any real authority, but he makes a ton of contact and is on nearly a 20-HR\/20-SB pace this year. The average will rise \u2014 he runs low BABIPs, but not .239-low \u2014 and he might tack on another 10 steals. I\u2019d still be happy to jettison him to another team. He\u2019s been playing near the peak of his potential value, and there\u2019s more downside than upside.<\/p>\n
If you were to construct Durbin\u2019s exact opposite, it would essentially be Jac Caglianone \u2014 he swings and misses a ton, but destroys the ball when he makes contact. If he would just lift the ball a little more, he would be an annual 40-home run guy. Easier said than done, but there is power upside here. Pencil him in to keep doing what he\u2019s doing, but I\u2019d pay up for him in dynasty leagues.<\/p>\n
Skipping over the injured Ronald Acu\u00f1a, we get to my first miss in Ivan Herrera. I\u2019m still a believer long term, but something has been off for the past few weeks. His bat speed is down half a tick since the start of June, and he isn\u2019t hitting the ball as hard. He could be tired, or this could be one of those blips you only notice when you zoom in on a random month. He\u2019s still one of the top catchers out there, but I\u2019d be open to selling at top-catcher value in case he can\u2019t shake this.<\/p>\n
I was directionally right about Lawrence Butler, but not so right that you\u2019d want him on your fantasy team. The guy who looked like a budding star a couple of years ago is now barely hanging on to a starting job.<\/p>\n
Fernando Tatis finally hit a few homers. My prediction that he\u2019d eventually reach 20 is far from guaranteed, but I think he has a solid hot streak in him. I\u2019d buy if his manager is getting sick of waiting for the guy they thought they were drafting.<\/p>\n
I can be a sucker for big power, but Mark Vientos has Caglianone\u2019s swing-and-miss with Christian Walker\u2019s raw power. That\u2019s not going to cut it.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m a big Willson Contreras believer. This may be a peak season, but I think he can keep something like this going. Maybe his new approach, where he\u2019s pulling everything, has a downside at some point, but this is what the combo of great power and good bat control looks like.<\/p>\n
Carson Benge has a full season slash line of .263\/.326\/.402, which looks about right to me, but Statcast gives him an expected average and slugging of .290 and .454. I wouldn\u2019t bank on that, but it gives the rookie some upside, and the steals are nice too.<\/p>\n
Dansby Swanson was one of those, \u201cWell he\u2019s not THIS bad\u201d buys, but I have a hard time getting excited about him. Still, he racks up counting stats, so wRC+ undersells him for our purposes. I guess that adds up to a \u201chold\u201d here.<\/p>\n
Dylan Crews is underperforming his expected stats by a healthy margin for the third season in a row. Maybe it all clicks at some point, but for this year, I\u2019m not waiting around.<\/p>\n
Esmerlyn Valdez is probably not the best hitter in baseball, contrary to what you have seen the past few weeks. I\u2019ll still take a victory lap for believing in him more than the Pirates, who sent him back to the minors shortly after I listed him as a buy, only to see him reemerge with a vengeance. Pick him up if he\u2019s somehow still on the wire in your league.<\/p>\n
I actually said in Zack Gelof\u2019s writeup that I would regret boosting him in a month, so\u2026 nailed it? What we\u2019re really seeing is the limitations of our chosen stat in a small sample size \u2014 wRC+ can jump around wildly in a two-week period, and if we gave Gelof another game or two prior to his writeup, his before and after looks much more even. The K% has stayed in the mid-20s through the recent cold stretch, so he\u2019s worth keeping an eye on.<\/p>\n
On that note, I\u2019ll zoom out on the rest of the list, where you can see I have a type: power plus enough contact to make it count. I\u2019m still a Lars Nootbaar believer, despite the recent slump. Vladimir Guerrero and Ketel Marte weren\u2019t going to keep looking like average hitters as long as they stayed healthy. The more interesting names here are Curtis Mead and Miguel Vargas. I don\u2019t think Mead has the raw power to keep up this level of production, but I still believe in the breakout. Vargas has a little more oomph to work with, and the combo of a 15.3% barrel rate and 7.3% swinging strike rate is elite stuff. Even if he gives a little back on each, he has turned himself into a really exciting player.<\/p>\n
On to the sells!<\/p>\n
Sell recommendations
\n DatePlayerwRC+ at writingwRC+ at ASGwRC+ Diff.<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
105<\/p>\n
104<\/p>\n
-1<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
104<\/p>\n
97<\/p>\n
-7<\/p>\n
4\/28\/26<\/p>\n
152<\/p>\n
108<\/p>\n
-44<\/p>\n
5\/5\/26<\/p>\n
137<\/p>\n
95<\/p>\n
-42<\/p>\n
5\/5\/26<\/p>\n
138<\/p>\n
111<\/p>\n
-27<\/p>\n
5\/5\/26<\/p>\n
118<\/p>\n
105<\/p>\n
-13<\/p>\n
5\/12\/26<\/p>\n
138<\/p>\n
116<\/p>\n
-22<\/p>\n
5\/12\/26<\/p>\n
118<\/p>\n
62<\/p>\n
-56<\/p>\n
5\/19\/26<\/p>\n
143<\/p>\n
145<\/p>\n
2<\/p>\n
5\/19\/26<\/p>\n
131<\/p>\n
126<\/p>\n
-5<\/p>\n
5\/27\/26<\/p>\n
119<\/p>\n
133<\/p>\n
14<\/p>\n
5\/27\/26<\/p>\n
105<\/p>\n
75<\/p>\n
-30<\/p>\n
5\/27\/26<\/p>\n
112<\/p>\n
101<\/p>\n
-11<\/p>\n
6\/2\/26<\/p>\n
132<\/p>\n
154<\/p>\n
22<\/p>\n
6\/2\/26<\/p>\n
86<\/p>\n
132<\/p>\n
46<\/p>\n
6\/9\/26<\/p>\n
117<\/p>\n
66<\/p>\n
-51<\/p>\n
6\/9\/26<\/p>\n
130<\/p>\n
76<\/p>\n
-54<\/p>\n
6\/16\/26<\/p>\n
154<\/p>\n
58<\/p>\n
-96<\/p>\n
6\/16\/26<\/p>\n
97<\/p>\n
157<\/p>\n
60<\/p>\n
6\/23\/26<\/p>\n
118<\/p>\n
158<\/p>\n
40<\/p>\n
6\/23<\/p>\n
143<\/p>\n
90<\/p>\n
-53<\/p>\n
6\/30\/26<\/p>\n
107<\/p>\n
101<\/p>\n
-6<\/p>\n
6\/30\/26<\/p>\n
123<\/p>\n
127<\/p>\n
4<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not anti-veteran, especially given how undervalued they can be in fantasy, but there are a lot of mid-to-late career players on this list. With vets, we usually have a sense of their peak value, and it\u2019s relatively easy to spot when a player is on an unsustainable heater. We also don\u2019t see a ton of raw power on this list, with a few notable exceptions.<\/p>\n
Ian Happ represents a more interesting case than some of the veterans here, because it appears he traded power for contact in his walk year. The issue is that, while his barrel rate is up a little, his exit velocity, maxEV and launch angle are basically the same as last year, and the strikeout rate has leapt from 22.8% last year to 31.5% this season. He\u2019ll pull out of the ugly slump he\u2019s in now, but he\u2019s also stuck in the bottom third of the lineup at the moment. I\u2019d hold and bench in 12-teamers.<\/p>\n
I get to count Andy Pages as a win because his production dropped after I called him a sell, but he\u2019s still a stud hitting second in an elite lineup. Buy if you can. The one place I\u2019d dial him back is in steals, where he gets caught almost as often as he succeeds.<\/p>\n
Xander Bogaerts now hits everything into the ground, and I just don\u2019t see much to work with beyond deep-league roster filler. Fortunately for the Padres, there are only seven more years on the contract after this one.<\/p>\n
Jazz Chisholm has entered, \u201cwell, he\u2019s not THIS bad\u201d territory, and he props up his value with his steals. He\u2019s a streaky player who might turn back into a star for a month. Buy the dip if you can.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s look at my misses.<\/p>\n
Randy Arozarena remains awesome. I don\u2019t see him ending the year with a wRC+ over 140 \u2014 an average in the .260s feels more realistic than his current .286 \u2014 but he still swipes bags and will remain a huge value.<\/p>\n
Liam Hicks has apparently stolen Steven Kwan\u2019s magic. Good things can happen if you never swing and miss. I\u2019m still not sure how he has hit 13 homers with his lack of power, but maybe his bat control is good enough to be opportunistic on certain pitches. I don\u2019t think he keeps this up, but a batting average specialist at catcher is nothing to sneeze at.<\/p>\n
Apparently I just don\u2019t believe in Marlins hitters, especially if they have four-letter first names that start with \u201cO\u201d \u2014 Otto Lopez and Owen Caissie are both proving me wrong. Caissie\u2019s strikeout rate has been more mid-30s than high-30s lately, and the power is so good that he\u2019s put up star numbers. If he can get his K rate down to 30% while keeping everything else the same, he could hit 50 homers in a season. As for Lopez, it usually takes Nick Kurtz-level contact quality to maintain a .370 BABIP, and I can\u2019t believe he keeps this going with a 7% barrel rate but, hey, he\u2019s made it this far. I\u2019d buy Owen and sell Otto (especially in dynasty), but each will be dependent on your team needs at this point.<\/p>\n
A.J. Ewing is a very similar story to Lopez \u2014 7.7% barrel rate, .353 BABIP, went berserk as soon as I called him a \u201csell.\u201d Statcast believes in what he\u2019s done so far, and he has the speed to steal more than he has. I\u2019d hold for now. TJ Rumfield is still a sell for me. I see more strikeouts and less power going forward.<\/p>\n
I caused an uproar in the comments section when I called CJ Abrams a sell, but there\u2019s obviously plenty to like here. I see him as broadly similar to Chisholm \u2014 an infielder with enviable power and speed who sometimes looks like a star and sometimes looks lost. Don\u2019t believe either version as the \u201creal\u201d one.<\/p>\n
Hope you\u2019ve enjoyed the journey to this point and that you continue to \u201cbuy,\u201d or at least \u201chold,\u201d this column. And let me know which players you\u2019d like to see here for the stretch run.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We have made it to the All-Star break, and as long as we don\u2019t have real games to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":762224,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[21850,2324,363,99],"class_list":["post-762223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-fantasy-baseball","tag-miami-marlins","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/762223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=762223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/762223\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/762224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=762223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=762223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=762223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}