The deaths of U.S. service members after Iran attacked a base in Jordan followed a week of fighting that has steadily upped the ante and could trigger the resumption of all-out war.<\/p>\n
The U.S. military has reinstated a naval blockade and bombed Iran for several consecutive days, concentrating attacks on coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz. But airstrikes have recently extended to infrastructure, such as railways that could be used to ferry weapons.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Iran has launched attacks on commercial ships and at its neighbors across the Persian Gulf region, targeting U.S. military assets. But Tehran has also hit energy infrastructure and even water desalination plants. <\/p>\n
Still, fighting hasn\u2019t been as extensive as it was during the initial phases of the war. But U.S. deaths previously represented a red line for President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
Early last month\u2014before both sides signed a memorandum of understanding that has since collapsed\u2014he confided to aides that he would consider ending the prior ceasefire and go back to war\u00a0if Iran kills American troops, according to the Wall Street Journal<\/a>.<\/p>\n When asked for a comment and whether the U.S. would return to all-out war, the White House only responded with a statement from Central Command announcing the casualties.<\/p>\n Oil prices have jumped as fighting has intensified in recent days, and more war would deliver another shock to global markets.<\/p>\n Consuming countries have drawn down their oil stockpiles to the lowest level in decades with little breathing room left to endure another extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n The U.S. established an alternate route through the narrow water to bypass an Iranian corridor, but the renewed fighting has effectively it shut down.<\/p>\n On Friday, no crossings<\/a> via the U.S.-backed route were detected, and no shadow fleet movements were recorded either, while Iran\u2019s route saw seven transits.<\/p>\n Despite the massive U.S.-Israeli bombardment, the war didn\u2019t bring about an overthrow of Iran\u2019s regime and has failed to fully reopen the strait. <\/p>\n To be sure, Iran\u2019s economy is reeling and conventional forces were decimated, but the Islamic Republic has enough combat power to scare away commercial shipping and isn\u2019t deterred from continuing its attacks. <\/p>\n Meanwhile, hopes for a new round of talks to cobble together another ceasefire are vanishing. Previously, some officials appeared to leave the door open to negotiations despite Tehran\u2019s defiant statements in the face of U.S. strikes.<\/p>\n That\u2019s after pragmatists inside Iran privately admitted that the initial naval blockade had crushed the economy<\/a>, with the blockade\u2019s resumption reportedly deepening a rift<\/a> between pragmatists and hard-liners who want to fight more aggressively.<\/p>\n But on Saturday, Iran\u2019s supreme leader warned<\/a> of \u201cunforgettable lessons\u201d if the U.S. keeps attacking and called Trump\u2019s signature \u201cworthless and invalid.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n For its part, the U.S. blames Iran for violating the ceasefire agreement by refusing to reopen the strait and attacking ships sailing outside of Tehran\u2019s approved corridor.<\/p>\n The stalemate has raised fears of an endless war, something Trump campaigned on avoiding, as tit-for-tat attacks continue along an escalating spiral. <\/p>\n \u201cThe immediate dispute concerns who controls the Strait of Hormuz, but more is at stake,\u201d Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, wrote in a New York Times op-ed<\/a> on Wednesday. \u201cThe collapse of even this minimal understanding could remove the last barrier between episodic confrontation and a forever war.\u201d<\/p>\n