\n The conflict is at an inflection point. It might give way to yet another round of mediation and negotiation. But to most analysts, that seems unlikely. Neither side seems in the mood to talk; both have said that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed in June after weeks of tortuous negotiation is no longer in effect.\n <\/p>\n
\n After the deaths Friday of two US service members in Jordan amid a barrage of Iranian missile strikes, the \u201ccoming days (are) among the most dangerous in the war,\u201d said Ian Bremmer<\/a>, founder of the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk analysis firm.\n <\/p>\n \n The US, which announced the death of another service member in northern Iraq on Sunday, said it would \u201cswiftly punish\u201d Tehran for the strikes \u2013 and Iran again targeted Jordan on Sunday.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIt is becoming increasingly clear that events are beginning to slip beyond anyone\u2019s control,\u201d said Danny Citrinowicz, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAlthough both Washington and Tehran initially appeared interested in keeping the confrontation within certain limits, the conflict is now moving alarmingly close to a point where those limits could collapse,\u201d Citrinowicz said on X.<\/a>\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThe confrontation could expand well beyond its current scope, drawing Gulf states more directly into the conflict and placing additional strategic targets and critical infrastructure at risk,\u201d he added.\n <\/p>\n \n The Iranian missile strike targeting Aqaba in Jordan on Sunday was ample evidence of that risk, with Israel saying that shrapnel fell on its territory. Israel has so far stayed out of the conflict, reportedly<\/a> at the request of the Trump administration but the government\u2019s unhappiness at the Iran agreement is no secret. Israeli defense officials warned Sunday that the country will hit back strongly if Iran attacks Israel.\n <\/p>\n \n The enemy has a vote, as military historians like to say, and Iran appears confident of its ability to inflict damage.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIran is adapting to US defenses by firing high-speed, maneuverable missiles at US bases in the region,\u201d wrote the Institute for the Study of War<\/a> on Saturday, adding that Iran has deployed cluster munitions at a greater scale in order to maximize damage.\n <\/p>\n \n The US casualties in Jordan are testament to that adaptation.\n <\/p>\n \n The signs are that the regime in Tehran believes it can outlast Trump, having mobilized public support around the funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The collective leadership that has emerged in the absence of Khamenei\u2019s son Mojtaba, the new supreme leader, appears to believe that resistance is the only option for now.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIran\u2019s current rulers believe that any display of restraint will only invite further American pressure,\u201d Iran analyst Vali Nasr wrote in the Financial Times<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n While the Iranian economy is in dire straits, with rampant inflation, chronic shortages of medicines and a crumbling economy, \u201cTehran will accept the inevitable economic hardship that another US naval blockade will entail, believing that its own pressure on the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz\u2026 will force Trump to blink first,\u201d Nasr added.\n <\/p>\n \n There is certainly no evidence for Trump\u2019s assertion that Iran is desperate for a deal \u2013 and the issue that started the conflict, Iran\u2019s nuclear program, has retreated almost out of sight as the focus has switched to a tussle over the Strait of Hormuz.\n <\/p>\n \n Essentially a rock has met a hard place \u2013 at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.\n <\/p>\n \n Vague language in the MoU sought to disguise irreconcilable differences between the US demand \u2013 supported by much of the international community \u2013 for freedom of navigation in and out of the Gulf, and Iran\u2019s insistence on managing shipping.\n <\/p>\n \n Indeed, in his first message as supreme leader in March, Mojtaba Khamanei insisted that the closure of the strait was a strategic lever, and that \u201cthe lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n To many analysts, the \u201cMemorandum of Misunderstanding\u201d was a toothless instrument.\n <\/p>\n \n Control of the strait gives Iran a \u201csword of Damocles over the head of the global economy\u201d that Tehran sees as \u201cessential\u201d to getting anything from Washington, Nasr said.\n <\/p>\n \n If the conflict continues to expand, there is also the possibility that Iran will enlist Houthi allies in Yemen to increase the pressure on the world economy and on Saudi Arabia by interfering with shipping in the Red Sea around the critical chokepoint of Bab al-Mandeb \u2013 a sort of Hormuz mark-two.\n <\/p>\n \n Washington\u2019s allies in the Gulf have previously interceded with Trump on the conduct of the war and the management of Hormuz. Most recently, a flurry of appeals from several governments \u2014 including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar \u2014 dissuaded Trump<\/a> from following through on a plan to collect fees from ships transiting the strait.\n <\/p>\n \n There are broader concerns that an expanding conflict will do deeper damage to their economies, defer any deal on Hormuz and leave them dealing with an intractable enemy across the Gulf after Washington decides it\u2019s had enough.\n <\/p>\n \n The question now is whether they would reach out \u2013 individually or collectively \u2013 once again if Iran follows through on its threat to hit ports and other infrastructure across the Gulf. And whether such an appeal would be heeded.\n <\/p>\n \n Iran could target \u201ca network of key ports\u201d in Gulf states in response to US strikes on the Iranian port of Chabahar<\/a>, the semi-official Fars news agency warned on Friday.\n <\/p>\n \n A decisive US military victory over Iran seems a distant prospect. It would likely demand the insertion of ground forces and a far more intensive and expansive campaign of strikes than has been evident over the past week. Anything less is unlikely to sway the regime in Tehran in what it sees as an existential struggle.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cI don\u2019t want to do that,\u201d Trump said of a ground war<\/a> in an interview with Fox News last week. But he added: \u201cSometimes you need a ground campaign, but we have other people that will do the ground campaign for us.\u201d CNN has reported<\/a> that Trump is considering new options, with an attack on the strategic Kharg Island again being mulled.\n <\/p>\n \n Launching a ground campaign into southern Iran \u201cin extreme summer heat against a fully mobilized military and a population that has largely rallied around the war effort would be an extraordinary gamble practically guaranteed to be a historic disaster,\u201d says Sina Toosi<\/a> at the Center for International Policy.\n <\/p>\n \n Such a campaign would be more challenging if allies such as Saudi Arabia are unwilling to allow their territory and airspace to be used for attacks on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Iranian president in January that the kingdom would not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any attack on Iran.\n <\/p>\n \n Both Pakistan and Qatar, who mediated the Lucerne, Switzerland, meeting between the US and Iran in June, have been very quiet in recent days. The last time a Qatari delegation was in Tehran was July 10, according to Iran\u2019s semi-official Tasnim news agency.\n <\/p>\n \n Mediation may yet come back into focus if oil markets panic and the price of crude returns above $100 on the back of shrinking reserves<\/a> worldwide.\n <\/p>\n![\"Motorcyclists](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/gettyimages-2286118246.jpg\")
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