{"id":774057,"date":"2026-07-20T15:17:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T15:17:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/774057\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T15:17:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T15:17:15","slug":"australian-dollar-labor-data-seen-reinforcing-rba-pause-bbh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/774057\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Dollar: Labor data seen reinforcing RBA pause \u2013 BBH"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Brown Brothers Harriman\u2019s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia\u2019s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia&#8217;s (RBA) projection. Futures imply a 60% chance of one final 25 bps hike to 4.60%, but Haddad sees risks skewed toward a longer pause, citing below-potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and a cash rate already near the top of neutral estimates, weighing on Australian Dollar (AUD).<\/p>\n<p>Jobs report and neutral rate cap upside<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The economy is projected to add +15k jobs vs. +40.3k in May and the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.4% for a second straight month.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That would be marginally higher than the RBA\u2019s June unemployment rate projection of 4.2% and support the case for an extended pause to the bank\u2019s tightening cycle.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;First, the RBA projects real <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/economic-calendar\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">GDP<\/a> growth to be below potential over the next two years. Second, the RBA cash rate at 4.35% currently sits near the top of the range of model-based central estimates of the nominal neutral rate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;RBA cash rate futures imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%. In our view, the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle which is a headwind for AUD.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/info\/how-fxstreet-uses-ai?utm_medium=internal&amp;utm_source=ai-disclaimer\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Know more.<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Brown Brothers Harriman\u2019s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia\u2019s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":774058,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-774057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=774057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/774058"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=774057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=774057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=774057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}