Welcome, for a ninth time, to my re-draft and ranking review exercise at The Athletic.<\/p>\n
Each summer, I re-draft the class from three years prior and begin to review my draft board against the draft itself.<\/p>\n
While three years obviously isn\u2019t the finish line for these players, it\u2019s a natural point of re-entry as they are almost all now either established as NHLers or approaching the end of their prospect lifecycle.<\/p>\n
This piece \u2014 along with my annual prospects I was wrong about<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 is meant to audit my process and results in an effort to build trust with my readers.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s look at how I did in 2023 and how things have changed.<\/p>\n Previous re-drafts and ranking reviews: 2022<\/a>| 2021<\/a> |\u00a02020<\/a> | 2019<\/a>\u00a0| 2018<\/a> | 2017<\/a> | 2016<\/a> | 2015<\/a><\/p>\n Did the Panthers and Lightning fleece the Leafs?<\/p>\n Sean McIndoe and Jonas Siegel<\/p>\n 1. Chicago Blackhawks: C Connor Bedard<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 1 (change: none) to Blackhawks There\u2019s more room for debate (I think it\u2019s a short-lived debate, but you\u2019d listen) now than there was then, but Bedard is still No. 1.<\/p>\n 2. Anaheim Ducks: C Leo Carlsson<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 2 (change: none) to Ducks Carlsson is the highest-paid player from this class for now, and he holds as its No. 2 prospect. I felt he, Adam Fantilli and Matvei Michkov were neck-and-neck at the time, but the smoothness of his game with its combination of size, smarts and skating has given him the edge so far and probably should\u2019ve given him the edge for me then.<\/p>\n 3. Columbus Blue Jackets: C Adam Fantilli<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 3 (change: none) to Blue Jackets Fantilli has yet to find that next level across a full 82 games, but he\u2019s still second in the class in goals and third (by a single point to Carlsson) in points.<\/p>\n I felt Fantilli was going to have similar offense to Carlsson while being harder to play against. The gap has proven to be an IQ one, and that was evident at the time. I\u2019m not going to lose sleep over having him slightly ahead after the season he had in college that year with the attributes he possesses. But that next level is in there, and he needs to go from the 25-30 goal, 55-60 point version of it he has already shown and become the 30-plus goal, 75-80 point force.<\/p>\n 4. San Jose Sharks: C Will Smith<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 4 (change: none) to Sharks The re-draft stays the same through the first four picks, which is extremely rare. Smith\u2019s pure individual skill is going to result in him becoming a point-per-game player in the league alongside Macklin Celebrini (or Ivar Stenberg, or Michael Misa).<\/p>\n He has already been right there in points per game (0.73) with Carlsson (0.77) and Fantilli (0.69) over the last two years.<\/p>\n 5. Montreal Canadiens: RW Matvei Michkov<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 7 (change: +2) to Flyers I was a little too wooed by the track record and offensive IQ\/skill with Michkov. His size, fitness, position and on-ice flaws (pace, off-puck habits) were clear at the time.<\/p>\n It\u2019s easy to forget that we\u2019re only a season removed from him having 63 points in 80 games as a rookie, the Flyers\u2019 second-leading scorer, and the fourth-place finisher in Calder Trophy voting, but last year some of his issues caught up with him. It\u2019s now on him to get his game right in some important areas. I still think he has point-per-game, first-line wing offense, but he was closer to the few names behind him here for me than the few names in front of him \u2014 and remains a complicated risk-reward slotting.<\/p>\n 6. Arizona Coyotes: LW Zach Benson<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 13 (change: +7) to Sabres My belief in Benson is well-documented, and I really trusted my evaluation of him as a dog who was going to drive play at both ends. He may not produce points like some of the names in front of him here (or even a couple of them behind him), but he will be their equal in impact because of everything he brings to the table. The hockey world saw it in the Stanley Cup playoffs.<\/p>\n While we\u2019re at it, I think Benson is a future Selke candidate.<\/p>\n 7. Philadelphia Flyers: RW\/LW Gabe Perreault<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 23 (change: +16) to Rangers \u201cI\u2019ve stuck my neck out on Perreault.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s likely going to be the fourth player from the national program picked because his game is believed to be less projectable. I\u2019m less and less convinced of that.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s a better skater than he gets credit for.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThere might not be a player in this draft class who thinks the game offensively at his level.\u201d<\/p>\n Those are direct from my final draft ranking in 2023, and they hold true today. I don\u2019t write a \u201cprospects I was right about\u201d piece opposite my \u201cprospects I was wrong about\u201d but \u2026 I\u2019m going to be right about Perreault. I nailed this one, and I\u2019m proud of it. If you watched some of his games late in the year with the Rangers, you\u2019ll know.<\/p>\n 8. Washington Capitals: RW Ryan Leonard<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 8 (change: none) to Capitals I think part of my belief in Perreault made me a little more reluctant than some in the league about Leonard. Leonard did a lot of the dirty work for that line with Smith and Perreault, stirring the drink with his strength, physicality, intensity and work ethic. He\u2019s going to score 30 goals a year in the NHL and do it as a desirable player type. But\u00a0while he has and will live up to his draft slot and I should have had him at No. 8 on my board, I still think I had the top seven players right.<\/p>\n 9. Detroit Red Wings: C\/RW\/LW Roman Kantserov<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 44 (change: +35) to Blackhawks I wrote at the time that Kantserov belonged higher on talent, but I also gave too much weight to the Russian factor in 2022 and 2023 post-Ukraine invasion. Those guys have always stayed longer and come with some risk, but if that has grown, it hasn\u2019t been as substantial as some (myself included) maybe anticipated. Looking back on my report, I think I got his profile right. Where I actually slotted him was much too low, though.<\/p>\n 10. St. Louis Blues: G Jacob Fowler\u00a0<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 69 (change: +59) to Canadiens Fowler looks like the best goalie prospect in what has so far proven to be an excellent goalie class. If he becomes a starter \u2014 and as good as Jakub Dobe\u0161 was last year, I still think Fowler is the starter of the future \u2014 he slots right around here.<\/p>\n 11. Vancouver Canucks: C Calum Ritchie<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 27 (change: +16) to Avalanche Oshawa and Barrie are the OHL rinks I\u2019m in the most, and so I saw a lot of Ritchie pre-draft and feel good about where I landed on him. I think he\u2019s going to be No. 4 or 5 forward for a playoff team.<\/p>\n 12. Arizona Coyotes: C Dalibor Dvorsky<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 10 (change: -2) to Blues Evaluators liked Dvorsky\u2019s skill, sense and two-way commitment. The feet are just average, though. I think he has flown a little under the radar to non-Blues fans and is going to be a really solid contributor in a top nine and potentially on a second line for a long time. I was a little too high on him at draft time, though, and thought about ranking him a spot or two lower here.<\/p>\n 13. Buffalo Sabres: LHD Dmitri Simashev<\/p>\n Actual draft pick: No. 6 (change: -7) to Coyotes I thought about re-ranking Simashev as high as No. 11. He and Ritchie and Dvorsky are comparable for me, and most would favor the long, smooth-skating D.<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 1 (change: none)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 4 (change: +2)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 3 (change: none)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 5 (change: +1)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 2 (change: -3)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 6 (change: none)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 7 (change: none)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 11 (change: +3)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 65 (change: +56)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 64 (change: +54)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 19 (change: +8)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 8 (change: -4)<\/p>\n
My final ranking: No. 35 (change: +22)<\/p>\n