Over the past decade, the growth in Oregon\u2019s total state government spending has far outpaced inflation and population growth.<\/p>\n
That analysis comes from a new tool built by the Oregon Journalism Project. Called Civic Ledger,<\/a> the tool allows users to examine total government spending over the past decade, adjusted for inflation and population growth.<\/p>\n OJP pulled 10 years\u2019 worth of spending data for 16 governments, including the state of Oregon. The data comes from each government\u2019s annual comprehensive financial report and pinpoints a measure of spending<\/a> that municipal finance experts say is more precise than annual budget numbers.<\/p>\n While the results vary for governments across Oregon, the trend line for state government is clear. Overall spending accelerated beyond inflation and population growth during the pandemic and never really slowed afterward. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n In some cases, the increased spending resulted from new taxes. In 2017, for instance, lawmakers hiked gas taxes and vehicle fees to raise money for transportation. In 2019, a new tax on corporations funded the Student Success Act, pouring money into K\u201312 education. In 2019, lawmakers also passed a new payroll tax to fund paid family leave.<\/p>\n In other cases, state spending expanded thanks to a growing economy and revenues from existing taxes. Those revenues helped cover general expenditures, including pension costs for state employees, which over the past decade increased from 12% to 23% of payroll. (The state also created three new agencies in 2021: the Department of Early Learning and Care, the Oregon State Fire Marshal\u2019s Office, and the Department of Emergency Management.)<\/p>\n Over the past decade, the total number of state employees grew 23% to 47,763. That is more than four times the growth in the state\u2019s population over the same period.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n By far the biggest increase in state spending came from an expansion of the social safety net. Over the past decade, spending on human services, for instance, grew about 30% faster than spending on education, the second largest state expenditure. Viewed another way, human services accounted for more than half the increase in state spending between 2016 and 2025.<\/p>\n By leveraging federal Medicaid dollars (which often match state expenditures 3 to 1), the state extended health care coverage to low-income Oregonians\u2014and the scope of the benefits they receive\u2014at an aggressive rate. (Oregon calls its Medicaid program the Oregon Health Plan.)<\/p>\n Nearly half of the new state employees hired over the past decade work in what the state\u2019s annual financial report calls \u201chuman services,\u201d a category which includes the Oregon Health Authority (the administrator of the Oregon Health Plan) and the Oregon Department of Human Services.<\/p>\n And while some of the increase in spending on human services reflected compensation for new employees, most of the new state spending paid for doctor visits, pharmaceuticals, hospitalization and other treatment for Oregon Health Plan beneficiaries.<\/p>\n Drawing on federal matching dollars, lawmakers expanded the Oregon Health Plan into one of the most ambitious Medicaid programs in the country. It now covers 1 in 3 Oregonians\u2014about 1.46 million people\u2014and provides a breadth of services more generous than the offerings in other blue states such as California, New York and Washington.<\/p>\n Although the federal government paid for most of the growth, adding beneficiaries and services also required a heavy investment from the state\u2019s general fund, the pot of money over which lawmakers exercise discretion. State funds allocated to matching federal Medicaid contributions more than tripled over the past decade\u2014far outpacing the general fund\u2019s growth.<\/p>\n Supporters say expansion was the right move. \u201cI don\u2019t regret it,\u201d said state Rep. Rob Nosse (D-Portland), chair of the House Health Care Committee. \u201cPeople got care that they wouldn\u2019t have otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n Critics say Medicaid expansion went too far. \u201cNobody at OHA ever said no to any expansion\u2014and the Legislature didn\u2019t either,\u201d said state Sen. Fred Girod (R-Stayton), a dentist and longtime member of the budget-writing Joint Ways and Means Committee.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve built a Medicaid system we can no longer afford,\u201d added state Rep. Ed Diehl (R-Stayton), co-vice chair of the House Committee on Health Care.<\/p>\n Republicans and Democrats alike, however, agree the bill has now come due with President Donald Trump\u2019s passage of large reductions to federal Medicaid funding.<\/p>\n Because Oregon leaders chose to expand Medicaid offerings so aggressively, those federal cuts will disproportionately hit the Oregon Health Plan, creating an estimated $421 million hole in the state\u2019s 2027\u201329 budget.<\/p>\n Late last year, Gov. Tina Kotek convened experts to look for ways to shrink the Oregon Health Plan.<\/p>\n That panel\u2019s report, delivered earlier this month, described the extent of the problem. \u201cMedicaid enrollment has more than doubled in the past 10 years,\u201d the report said<\/a>. \u201cOHP benefits have increased over the past 10 years, and Oregon\u2019s optional benefit package is relatively rich compared to other states.\u201d<\/p>\n There was no discussion in the panel\u2019s recommendations to Kotek about one of the biggest recent drivers of increased Oregon Health Plan spending, a program called Healthier Oregon, which offers Medicaid to any undocumented person living in Oregon.<\/p>\n