Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears<\/p>\n
2024 stats: 3,541 yards, 62.5% completion percentage, 20 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 27th in EPA\/play.<\/p>\n
Williams entered the NFL<\/a> with enormous hype. He was supposed to be a franchise-altering quarterback, a one-man offense who could spin magic out of the mundane. Instead, his rookie season fell flat.<\/p>\n Chicago drafted him No 1 overall and then plopped him into an ill-fitting roster with an ill-fitting scheme<\/a>. To compound things, the Bears overloaded Williams with too much, too soon and he spent much of the year looking frazzled.<\/p>\n There was plenty of blame to go around: receivers quit on the offense (at one point mid-play<\/a>), the offensive line was brutal and there was no supporting run game. By the midpoint of the season, the players\u2019 body language was so poor that the O-line barely pretended to care<\/a> when Williams was crushed.<\/p>\n Still, the rookie wasn\u2019t blameless. Williams swung between hyper-aggressive and ultra-conservative. The creativity that defined his game in college vanished. Early in the season, he bailed from clean pockets, hoping to extend plays; later, he stayed glued to the top of his drops, as though he was trying to deconstruct pre-draft narratives about his instinctual style in real-time. Neither extreme worked.<\/p>\n Williams did show progress late in the year, playing with better rhythm in a more structured set-up, but his accuracy was still erratic. Among starting QBs, only Anthony Richardson was more inaccurate on unpressured throws from the pocket.<\/p>\n Enter Ben Johnson. The former Lions offensive coordinator has been the most sought-after head coach for two cycles. He rejected multiple job offers before finally taking the Bears gig, betting his career on Williams.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not just Johnson, either. For the third straight year, the Bears have been crowned offseason champs (hang the banners!). Chicago overhauled their offensive line, trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing center Drew Dalman in free agency. They added Ozzy Trapilo in the second round of the draft, and he is in contention to start at left tackle.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a solid haul, but there are caveats. Jackson was a bust in LA, his career derailed by injuries. Thuney has been one of the league\u2019s best guards for a decade, but he turns 33 in November and he showed signs of ageing last season. Dalman is a run-game specialist who has been exposed in pass protection. If the trio click early, they will help fuel Johnson\u2019s rushing attack, the bedrock of Johnson\u2019s offense, but it could easily go the other way.<\/p>\n And there are still fair questions about how Johnson will build a passing game to fit Williams. In Detroit, Johnson built a rhythm-based attack around Jared Goff. That\u2019s not Williams\u2019 natural game. He is a creator, wired to hold the ball and extend plays. Finding a balance between Johnson\u2019s systematized approach and Williams\u2019 freewheeling style will be a challenge.<\/p>\n Adjustments should flow in both directions: Johnson loosening his approach; Williams speeding up his play in the pocket. Early training camp reports, though, have not been encouraging. Johnson hasn\u2019t decluttered the Bears\u2019 offense. He\u2019s added even more to the quarterback\u2019s plate, dumping his entire offense on Williams<\/a> and asking him to play catch-up. That\u2019s the same approach last year\u2019s staff took, and it was a dud.<\/p>\n Johnson was hired to trigger a quick turnaround for Williams and the Bears, but the partnership may take a year to come together. Williams remains an electric talent. Johnson is one of the best offensive architects of his generation. The potential peak is a Mahomes-Reid-like fusion of ideas. But the teething issues could be gnarly until the duo find a middle-ground approach that works.<\/p>\n Confidence meter: 5\/10 \u2013 Banking on Johnson.<\/p>\n Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders<\/p>\n 2024 stats: 3,568 yards, 69% completion percentage, 25 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, eighth in EPA\/play<\/p>\n Daniels put together the finest rookie quarterback season in modern league history, carrying the Commanders to an NFC Championship game.<\/p>\n Nothing about last year was a fluke. He cracked everything opposing defenses threw his way<\/a>, torching the blitz and shredding complex coverage rotations. At times, Daniels was a one-man offense, an explosive play waiting to happen, whether through the air or on the ground. He also mastered pro-level nuances and refused to make dumb mistakes, finishing the season with 1.7% turnover-worthy play percentage, second only to Lamar Jackson.<\/p>\n The Commanders recognize they have something special and spent the offseason trying to fast-track their championship timeline. That\u2019s a laudable strategy, but the particulars are fuzzy. They bet on household names, acquiring Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel in offseason trades to give Daniels more protection and firepower. But both of the new arrivals are at iffy stages of their careers: Tunsil didn\u2019t play up to his reputation in Houston last season; Samuel is a unicorn, but injuries have slowed him down. The team mirrored the strategy on defense, bringing in older vets (Von Miller, Will Harris, Eddie Goldman) to try to push them over the top. Now, Washington have the oldest roster in the NFL despite having one of the best young quarterbacks in the league.<\/p>\n You can quibble with the Commanders\u2019 medium-term outlook, but the roster is stronger this season than last. Tunsil, for all his faults last season, is a clear upgrade at left tackle. If the team can box off a contract extension for Terry McLaurin<\/a>, they will have plenty of weapons for Daniels to work with. Even if the team regress, we have seen enough from Daniels to know he will be a perennial MVP contender.<\/p>\n Confidence meter: 10\/10 \u2013 we\u2019re gonna need a bigger scale.<\/p>\n Drake Maye, New England Patriots<\/p>\n 2024 stats: 2,276 yards, 66.6% completion percentage, 15 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 20th in EPA\/play<\/p>\n Maye was dealt the roughest hand of any rookie quarterback last season. He was dropped on a barren roster, playing for a head coach who was in over his head.<\/p>\n Given the circumstances, Maye was outstanding. There were flashes of the Justin Herbert-esque quarterback he could be: An efficient, downfield bomber who can move the chains with his legs, so long as he kicks his addiction to fumbles. The surface numbers were fine. But the under-the-hood figures were more encouraging. He finished the year 20th in EPA\/play, ranking third among the rookies and ahead of more established starters. He also finished with 2.8% completion percentage over expectation, which sounds small but put him 11th in the league, above Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.<\/p>\n This season, the arrow is pointing up. Mike Vrabel is now the Pats\u2019 head coach. Josh McDaniels is back calling plays. Professionalism is back in the building. The front office invested heavily and smartly to upgrade the offense, adding Stefon Diggs, rookie receiver Kyle Williams, veteran linemen Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury, and two linemen drafted in the top three rounds, including left tackle Will Campbell.<\/p>\n Even with the additions, the Patriots\u2019 offensive line lacks experience and difference-makers. But it\u2019s in a stronger place than when Maye walked into the huddle a year ago. The receiver room is also improved, running eight deep, with recent draft picks Ja\u2019Lynn Polk and Javon Baker unlikely to make the regular season roster.<\/p>\n With those improvements around him, Maye is the most likely quarterback to take the Year Two leap.<\/p>\n Confidence meter: 7\/10 \u2013 finally working with some pros.<\/p>\n Michael Penix had some promising performances in limited playing time in 2024. Photograph: Brett Davis\/USA Today SportsMichael Penix Jr, Atlanta Falcons<\/p>\n 2024 stats: 775 yards, 58.1% completion percentage, three passing touchdowns, three interceptions<\/p>\n