Inflation Nowcasting<\/a>\u00a0model has July’s headline CPI (Wed) rising\u00a00.1%\u00a0m\/m and 3.4%\u00a0y\/y, down from 3.5% in June (chart).\u00a0The model\u2019s projection for\u00a0core CPI looks similarly benign, rising 0.2% m\/m and 2.5%\u00a0y\/y from 2.6% in June.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-40.png\")
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June’s PPI Final Demand rose 5.5% y\/y, while the measure excluding trade services ran hotter at 6.1%, and\u00a0the\u00a0core\u00a0measure\u00a0(also stripping food and energy) firmed to 5.1% (chart).<\/p>\n
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(2) Retail Sales.\u00a0The release of\u00a0July retail sales (Fri) follows\u00a0a June increase of 6.7% y\/y (chart). The weekly Redbook same-store sales index\u00a0has\u00a0slipped a bit\u00a0but remains high, easing\u00a0to 8.2% y\/y\u00a0for the week of July 31\u00a0from 10.1% in early July. That pace\u00a0is still\u00a0well above trend, confirming\u00a0that\u00a0consumer spending has stayed healthy despite slower headline jobs growth.<\/p>\n
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(3) Unemployment Claims. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 31 rose slightly to 199,000, still below 200,000 for a third straight week, with the four-week average at 198,800, near the lowest since 2022 (chart). Continuing claims held at 1,801,000, with its four-week average at 1,795,000. Both point to a labor market that remains resilient at the margin, even after Friday’s weak payrolls print.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-42.png\")
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(4) Global.\u00a0Japan’s July PPI (Wed) follows a rare joint US-Japan intervention to defend the yen, which hit 40-year lows in late July, with the\u00a0Bank of Japan signaling its most explicit openness yet to an early rate hike. June’s PPI jumped to 7.1% y\/y, its fastest pace since March 2023 (chart). A hot July print would add pressure on the\u00a0BOJ\u00a0to tighten\u00a0rather than\u00a0to\u00a0lean on\u00a0currency\u00a0intervention alone\u00a0to rein in inflation.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-44.png\")
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Elsewhere, the\u00a0RBA\u00a0(meeting Tue)\u00a0is widely expected to hold\u00a0its key interest rate\u00a0at 4.35% after the June-quarter trimmed mean inflation\u00a0rate\u00a0cooled to 3.6%. Also: The UK posts its first Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday, following Q1\u00a0GDP\u00a0growth of 0.6%.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n
Join the discussion with Ed below! To leave comments or questions, log in to the Yardeni QuickTakes website and post them at the end of the QuickTakes article. Paid members’ contributions may be featured in our segment, “Ed Answers Your Questions”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Last week, July payrolls fell 23,000, missing the 85,000 consensus, even as the unemployment rate edged down to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":807974,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-807973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/807973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=807973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/807973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/807974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=807973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=807973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=807973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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