{"id":810668,"date":"2026-08-12T01:40:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T01:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/810668\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T01:40:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T01:40:10","slug":"canada-could-lose-more-than-100k-jobs-if-cusma-dies-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/810668\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada could lose more than 100K jobs if CUSMA dies: report"},"content":{"rendered":"

OTTAWA \u2014 Canada could lose 102,000 jobs if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement on trade breaks down, a new report warns<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The report, prepared for the Canadian American Business Council by Oxford Economics, studied the potential economic consequences of various CUSMA scenarios, including termination of the deal.<\/p>\n

The report says the United States would lose 214,000 jobs in 2027 if CUSMA died.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany of these jobs would be in manufacturing industries directly impacted by tariffs, but the service sector would also feel the impact as lower disposable income causes households to reduce consumer spending and lower trade, and investment reduces demand for transportation, construction and professional services,\u201d says the report.<\/p>\n

The successful renegotiation of CUSMA, it says, would create 137,000 American jobs and 98,000 Canadian jobs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe status quo is not a neutral baseline,\u201d said the report. \u201cEven holding today\u2019s tariffs in place slows export growth and keeps unemployment elevated in both countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"The Canadian and American flags flap in the breeze at the Thousand Islands border crossing in Lansdowne, Ont., on Monday Nov. 8, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Lars Hagberg The Canadian and American flags flap in the breeze at the Thousand Islands border crossing in Lansdowne, Ont., on Monday Nov. 8, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Lars Hagberg <\/p>\n

Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said in an email that Canadian workers can\u2019t be a bargaining chip in a trade war they didn\u2019t start.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are real jobs on the line, and the government needs to be ready to defend them,\u201d she said. \u201cBut protecting Canadian workers cannot mean signing a bad deal because Donald Trump threatens to walk away. Canada needs to know what it is fighting for, where the red lines are, and what the plan is to protect workers and communities if the U.S. walks away.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report says the provinces and states affected most by the loss of CUSMA would include Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Michigan, Indiana, Washington and Iowa.<\/p>\n

For Canada, the industries facing the deepest impacts from the loss of CUSMA would include autos, metals, machinery, electronics, chemicals, wood products and paper products, the report says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe economic consequences are real and we should go into any negotiation with eyes wide open,\u201d Beth Burke, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, said in an interview Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The report said a successful renegotiation of the deal would be worth approximately $516 per U.S. household and $846 in Canadian dollars per Canadian household each year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s not insignificant, especially in a time where affordability is pinching everyone,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

A new round of 50 per cent American tariffs on a range of Canadian goods is set to take effect on Aug. 19. <\/p>\n

\"\"LeBlanc Greer Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc (left) and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer (left). <\/p>\n

Unlike most of U.S President Donald Trump\u2019s other tariffs, these would have no exemptions for goods that comply with CUSMA.<\/p>\n

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Janice Charette, Canada\u2019s chief trade negotiator, are back in Washington this week for another round of trade talks.<\/p>\n

LeBlanc said on social media Tuesday that they met with United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.<\/p>\n

\u201cDiscussions remain ongoing, and we continue to engage at the negotiation table to firmly advance and defend Canadian interests,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, LeBlanc\u2019s spokesman Gabriel Brunet said talks have broadly covered the threatened new duties, existing sectoral tariffs and renegotiations of CUSMA.<\/p>\n

Burke said she\u2019s \u201cvery cautiously optimistic\u201d as officials continue to meet.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery time they get together and hash out and have more meaningful substantive conversations is another step towards getting to the right place on an agreement,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The report says an estimated 1.4 million American jobs and 2.5 million Canadian jobs depend on the bilateral trade relationship.<\/p>\n

\u201cReversing this integration would not merely remove its direct benefits but would also impose substantial transition costs on businesses forced to rebuild intricate supply chains created over decades and incur long-run efficiency losses,\u201d it says.<\/p>\n

\"\"CUSMA trade review <\/p>\n

Julian Karaguesian, a lecturer at McGill University and former special adviser at Finance Canada, said the most likely scenario is that tariffs are maintained.<\/p>\n

He added that while Canada\u2019s trade with the U.S. is down, it\u2019s trade with non-U.S. countries is increasing.<\/p>\n

The Liberals have set a goal of doubling non-U.S. exports over the next decade.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s spring economic update said non-U.S. goods and services exports increased by $33 billion in 2025 over 2024.<\/p>\n

Samantha Lafleur, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, said in an email last month that in the first quarter of this year, non-U.S. exports of goods and services were worth $96.2 billion.<\/p>\n

The report says current tariffs represent a \u201csignificant departure\u201d from pre-2025 levels.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, the termination of (CUSMA) would result in large increases in both countries\u2019 tariffs,\u201d the report warns.<\/p>\n

\u201cA successful renegotiation of (CUSMA) would cause bilateral tariffs to fall close to their pre-2025 levels of around one per cent, as in this scenario only limited additional tariffs are assumed to remain on steel, aluminum and Canadian dairy.\u201d<\/p>\n

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 11, 2026.<\/p>\n

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"OTTAWA \u2014 Canada could lose 102,000 jobs if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement on trade breaks down, a new report…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":810669,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[28,101,192,6377,79,447],"class_list":["post-810668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-environment","tag-national","tag-science","tag-trade"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=810668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810668\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/810669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=810668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=810668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=810668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}