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<\/p>\nCanada\u2019s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention when published on Monday. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide markets with an update on price pressures following the Bank of Canada\u2019s (BoC) July 15 gathering, when officials kept the interest rate steady at 2.25%, broadly in line with the consensus among analysts.<\/p>\n
This time, economists expect the headline CPI to rise by 2.9% in the year to July, still above the central bank\u2019s goal and up from June\u2019s 2.8% annual increase. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.5%. The bank will also closely monitor its core measure (which strips food and energy costs), expected to rise by 2.2%, up from the 2.1% YoY gain recorded in the previous month.<\/p>\n
In the current context of heightened geopolitical volatility, crude Oil dynamics are likely to keep inflationary pressures anything but abated. Adding to this scenario, we should not forget the impact of US tariffs on domestic consumer prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Still around data, the bank\u2019s preferred gauges, CPI-Common, Trimmed Mean, and Median, receded in June to 2.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively.<\/p>\n
What can we expect from Canada\u2019s inflation rate?<\/p>\n
Inflation lost some momentum in June, although market participants remain somewhat sceptical about the continuation of this trend into July.<\/p>\n
At its latest gathering, the BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. While the reduced annual economic growth projection and current economic slack argue against extra tightening, the combination of higher anticipated inflation and confidence in the recent recovery, plus Governor Tiff Macklem\u2019s specific caution against successive rises, means the BoC is attentive to continued oil-driven price pressures.<\/p>\n
So far, market participants expect just over 18 basis points of tightening by year-end.<\/p>\n
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When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD\/CAD?<\/p>\n
Markets will fully focus on Monday at 12:30 GMT, when Statistics Canada publishes July\u2019s inflation prints. If inflation reverses the recent decline, bets on further rate hikes should likely increase, providing fresh legs for the Canadian Dollar (CAD).<\/p>\n
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet<\/a>, notes that USD\/CAD has been in a steady downtrend since late July, almost entirely tracking developments in the Middle East conflicts and their impact on the Greenback.<\/p>\n Piovano points out that USD\/CAD<\/a> has recently broken below the 1.3900 support level for the first time since early June. In doing so, it has also left behind its provisional 100-day SMA in the 1.3920 region. Further losses carry the potential to confront the critical 200-day SMA in the mid-1.3800s.<\/p>\n If bulls regain control, the interim 55-day SMA around 1.4060 becomes the immediate target, followed by the August ceiling at 1.4080 (August 4) and the weekly peak at 1.4129 (July 28).<\/p>\n \u201cMomentum could prompt some technical correction,\u201d he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is entering the oversold threshold near 29, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 30 suggests a firm trend.<\/p>\n (This story was updated on August 17 at 09:15 GMT to add a last-minute consensus change for the month-on-month Canadian CPI figure, which is expected at 0.5%)<\/p>\n Economic Indicator<\/p>\n BoC Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n The Bank of Canada<\/a> (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more. \n Last release: \n Frequency: \n Actual: \n Consensus: \n Previous: \n Source: <\/a>\n <\/p>\n Economic Indicator<\/p>\n BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)<\/p>\n The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada<\/a> (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.<\/p>\n
\n <\/a><\/p>\n
\n Wed Jul 15, 2026 13:45\n <\/p>\n
\n Irregular\n <\/p>\n
\n 2.25%\n <\/p>\n
\n 2.25%\n <\/p>\n
\n 2.25%\n <\/p>\n
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\n Bank of Canada<\/p>\n