COVID activity is still considered low, nationally, the CDC says. However, rates are increasing quickly across the country, especially in the South and West. <\/p>\n
Texas is currently reporting the highest levels of COVID in wastewater of any state, per CDC data.<\/p>\n
One school district in south Texas was forced to shut down for two days this week due to the rapid spread of COVID within the district. San Perlita ISD<\/a> announced it was closing all campuses from Aug. 25-26 to \u201cprotect the health and safety\u201d of students and staff, according to a notice published Monday<\/a>.<\/p>\n The current spike is not unexpected, according to experts. The SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread year-round, but it has settled into a distinctive seasonal pattern in the U.S. since the pandemic began.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve had two waves (every year). One in the middle to late summer, and the other during the winter,\u201d Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, tells TODAY.com.<\/p>\n While the country was focused on a massive outbreak of cyclospora<\/a> last month, COVID was creeping up too, data show.<\/p>\n Although the respiratory virus may not be top of mind for many Americans, says Schaffner, it\u2019s certainly spreading \u2014 just in time for back-to-school season.<\/p>\n Is the U.S. facing a new COVID surge and when will cases peak? Here\u2019s what we know about the latest trends and how to stay safe.<\/p>\n 2026 Summer COVID-19 Surge<\/p>\n The U.S. is experiencing the beginning of a late summer COVID-19 wave, experts say. \u201cThe national data is beginning to tick up, but it\u2019s not a substantial increase yet,\u201d says Schaffner.<\/p>\n According to the latest CDC analysis<\/a>, the level of COVID activity in wastewater is \u201cvery low\u201d nationally as of Aug. 15, the CDC says. <\/p>\n However, the latest data from WastewaterSCAN<\/a>, a Stanford University-run infectious disease monitoring program, show that the level of SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater is \u201chigh\u201d nationwide, with a significant upward trend in the last 21 days.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve been seeing a pretty steady increase since late June across the (U.S.). So far in August, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are up 106% compared to July 2026,\u201d Amanda Bidwell, WastewaterSCAN Scientific Program Manager, tells TODAY.com.<\/p>\n The West and South currently have the highest concentrations. California and Texas are among the states reporting the sharpest uptick in cases.<\/p>\n At least 15 states and territories in the U.S. are experiencing active COVID outbreaks, according to an Aug. 17 report from Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative\u2019s data tracker<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThat is troubling, especially if you\u2019re in one of those areas,\u201d Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., assistant professor at Tulane University School of Medicine who leads the PMC.<\/a><\/p>\n However, the experts emphasize that the current wave appears to be less severe than what we\u2019ve seen in previous years. In 2025, the U.S. experienced an intense summer surge fueled by the \u201cStratus\u201d variant<\/a>, which lasted into the fall.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are seeing much lower SARS-CoV-2 concentrations compared to this time last year,\u201d says Bidwell. <\/p>\n During the week ending Aug. 13, nearly 5% of COVID-19 tests came back positive \u2014 this same time last year, the weekly test positivity rate was over 9%, per CDC data.<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s unclear how severe this late summer wave could become or when it may peak. \u201cWe\u2019re expecting transmission to peak about a week into September,\u201d says Hoerger, adding that the regional spread could shift as well. <\/p>\n Only time will tell, the experts note. It\u2019s still peak vacation season in the U.S. and millions of children will return to school in the coming weeks, creating opportunities for the virus to spread.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to be very cautious. We\u2019re still only in the middle of August,\u201d says Schaffner.<\/p>\n Which COVID-19 Variants Are Spreading?<\/p>\n The current COVID wave is being driven by a mixture of familiar variants, says Bidwell. <\/p>\n The dominant strain, XFG.1.1, accounted for 22-40% of all cases in the U.S. last month, according to the latest data from the CDC.<\/a> <\/p>\n XFG is a highly contagious recombinant variant, which overtook the Nimbus (NB.1.8.1)<\/a> variant last summer, Dr. Albert Ko, professor of public health, epidemiology and medicine at Yale School of Public Health, tells TODAY.com.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s still within the family of past omicron variants (from) this past year, so it\u2019s not a big jump in terms of being different. That\u2019s probably why we\u2019re not seeing a big peak this summer,\u201d Ko adds.<\/p>\n About 15% of cases are being fueled by the BA.3.2 variant, aka Cicada<\/a>, per CDC data. The heavily mutated strain emerged earlier this year and began spreading rapidly worldwide. However, Cicada hasn\u2019t seemed to take off in the U.S., the experts note.<\/p>\n While there hasn\u2019t been a major shift or mutation in the latest variants, the virus may still evolve in the future, Hoerger notes.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fact that we are not seeing an entirely new variant doesn\u2019t mean COVID is not going to cause severe disease,\u201d Ko says.<\/p>\n COVID Symptoms 2026<\/p>\n The symptoms of the COVID-19 variants fueling the summer wave are similar to those caused by other omicron strains. These usually appear within two to 14 days of exposure to the virus.<\/p>\n Common signs of COVID-19<\/a> in 2026, per the CDC, include:<\/p>\n CoughSore throatCongestionFatigueFeverChillsShortness of breathHeadacheNausea and vomiting Diarrhea<\/p>\n The symptoms of COVID and other common respiratory viruses are very similar, which is why testing is important.<\/p>\n If you test negative using a rapid at-home antigen test, the CDC recommends taking another test after 48 hours to be confident that you aren\u2019t infected.<\/p>\n Most people recover from COVID-19 on their own, but some groups are at higher risk of severe illness or hospitalization, says Schaffner.<\/p>\n These include adults over the age of 65, infants, individuals with weak immune systems or underlying conditions, and people who have never gotten a COVID vaccine.<\/p>\n The infection can be treated with antivirals, which reduce symptom severity and duration when taken early. <\/p>\n COVID Quarantine Guidelines for 2026<\/p>\n If you get sick with COVID-19, the CDC recommends staying home and isolating<\/a> from others who aren\u2019t sick until you feel better.<\/p>\n You can go back to your normal activities once your symptoms have improved and you\u2019ve been fever-free without medication for at least 24 hours, the CDC says.<\/p>\n While recovering, the experts recommend practicing social distancing, especially from immunocompromised family members, and wearing a well-fitted N95 respirator or KN95. <\/p>\n Is the New COVID-19 Booster Available?<\/p>\n For the past few years, the COVID-19 vaccine has been reformulated to target the new strains circulating in the fall. <\/p>\n Earlier this year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted to recommend the updated COVID vaccine for 2026-2027<\/a> target the XFG variant, NBC News reported previously.<\/p>\n \u201cThe new shots will cover what\u2019s anticipated to be circulating this fall and winter,\u201d says Schaffner.<\/p>\n The 2026-2027 COVID vaccines are not yet available, but experts expect them to be released sometime in September.<\/p>\n \u201cIt could be later if there\u2019s any kind of snag (in the approval process), and that\u2019s frustrating because we\u2019ve got outbreaks happening now,\u201d says Hoerger.<\/p>\n![\"Map](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-21-at-2-af808d.png\")
Map of COVID-19 Wastewater Viral Activity Levels by StateCDC<\/p>\n