The WNBA only has a handful of games left in the regular season, but the league is about to take a 2.5 week break for the FIBA Women\u2019s Basketball World Cup before the playoffs start on September 27. We already know all eight teams who will be in the playoffs, but seeding is still very much up for grabs at every spot in the playoff bracket outside of the Minnesota Lynx\u2019s No. 1 seed.<\/p>\n
The championship race feels wide open this year. The Las Vegas Aces have won three of the last four championships led by the league\u2019s best player in A\u2019Ja Wilson, but their depth feels shakier than ever this season. The Lynx have ridiculous top-end star-power with Olivia Miles and Napheesa Collier, but they are a bit undersized up front and their bench is a question mark. The Indiana Fever have a historically good offense, but the defense struggles to get stops. That\u2019s just the start of it.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to imagine the Dallas Wings or Washington Mystics can win it all, but the other six playoff teams will have a chance. Let\u2019s rank the WNBA championship pictures for the teams with the ability to be the last one standing.<\/p>\n
The Dream feel like the toughest team to pin down entering the playoffs even if their strengths and weaknesses are easy to see. This is the best team in the league at generating extra possessions, led by the brilliant rebounding of Angel Reese. Reese is having the best year of her career in her third season, and Atlanta\u2019s three-point happy shot profile works perfectly with her signature skill on the offensive glass. Sometimes those long shots fall for Atlanta. When they don\u2019t, Reese has a nearly 20% chance to pull down the board and give her team another look. The weakness in Reese\u2019s game is also the weakness in Atlanta\u2019s game. Reese ranks in the 99th percentile of shots at the rim, but only the 11th percentile of rim finishing. The Dream as a team are -3.2 percentage points worse than the average shooting team in the WNBA this year. Atlanta ranks No. 10 in both true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, but all those extra possessions mean they\u2019re still the No. 5 team in offensive efficiency.<\/p>\n
The Dream are also No. 4 in defensive efficiency, and this is where they really have to shine to make a deep playoff run. Atlanta forces a ton of steals, and is by far the best team in the league at generating takeaways. Their +3.5 dTOV score laps No. 2 Minnesota at +2.1. Rhyne Howard has become an elite two-way wing who chucks three-pointers and gets into the passing lanes defensively to generate fastbreaks. The halfcourt offense is the one thing holding this team back, but it could look better once big Brionna Jones returns to the lineup from a leg injury. I think the Dream can absolutely win a series or two, but I have a hard time believing they can win the championship with their offense.<\/p>\n
Breanna Stewart is still an S-tier WNBA superstar at age-31, and she proved she could power the Liberty to a championship on the way to their 2024 title. Stewie\u2019s co-stars Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones feel like they\u2019ve both fallen off a tad this year. Sabrina Ionescu is having her most efficient scoring season since 2023, but her overall production has dipped a bit as she\u2019s battled a bad back. Jones is still an excellent offensive big with real three-point range, but she isn\u2019t quite as stout defensively as she once was. The big three are going to have to carry the Libs across the finish line this year because the depth has been shaky from the jump, and looks even worse with the loss of Satou Sabally to a lingering concussion that has kept her out for two months and counting.<\/p>\n
The bench recently got a big boost with the return of forward Leonie Fiebich from injury, and she\u2019s an impactful two-way forward with shooting ability at her best. It has felt like the Liberty are one piece away all year in the front court, and getting Fiebich back makes them a lot more dangerous. If Sabally can return \u2014 and the World Cup break gives her a better chance to do it \u2014 New York could fortify the rotation just enough to allow Stewie to carry them over the finish line. I\u2019m not writing off the Libs with one of the best players on the planet, but this just hasn\u2019t felt like the team we saw two years ago all season. No one should be surprised if New York goes on a run through the bracket, but no one should really be expecting it, either.<\/p>\n
The Fever have a historically good offense, and a pretty bad defense. Indiana\u2019s 115.6 offensive rating is the best in league history right now by more than two points per 100 possessions over the next closest team. Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell is the WNBA\u2019s best backcourt, and they complement each other perfectly on offense. Clark\u2019s deep pull-up shooting is unmatched in the league, and her playmaking is as good as anyone\u2019s. She can definitely struggle with her turnovers, and she\u2019ll need to be careful not to give away too many possessions come playoff time. Mitchell is the definition of a walking bucket. Her three-level takeover scoring ability is a thing of beauty to watch, and the Fever are never out of a game as long as she can get hot. Add in Aliyah Boston\u2019s interior scoring, and Indiana has everything it needs to out-score opponents throughout a playoff run.<\/p>\n
The defense feels like a real problem, though. Indiana is the second-worst team in the league at forcing turnovers. Teams have been making shots over them all year, in part because Clark and Mitchell don\u2019t provide much defensive resistance on the perimeter. Their defensive rebounding has been awesome all year, and that would seriously be tested in a potential first-round matchup against the Dream which would happen if the season ended today. It feels like the Fever are missing a roaming, defensive-minded four who can cause some havoc in a free safety role defensively, but they don\u2019t have a player like that on the roster. Their only path through the bracket is out-scoring everyone, but there\u2019s a real chance that could happen. I think the Fever have a shot at winning it all, and I nearly put them third in this ranking. The defense just holds them back a little.<\/p>\n
3. Golden State Valkyries<\/p>\n
How good is the Valkyries\u2019 defense? Consider that Minnesota superstar rookie Olivia Miles has only been held under 10 points twice all season, and both times were against Golden State. Head coach Natalie Nakase has built a defense that does everything well by walling off the paint, contesting shooters, forcing turnovers, and doing enough on the glass to avoid giving up a back-breaking amount of extra possessions. Opposing perimeter scorers won\u2019t have fun dealing with Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton, who can both lock down at the point of attack while also being high-IQ help defenders. The front court can be a bit of a problem area for Golden State with starting big Iliana Rupert out for the year due to pregnancy. Kiah Stokes needs to hold up inside for this team to go on a long playoff run.<\/p>\n
The offense feels like it could be an issue for the Valkyries when the game slows down in the playoffs. Golden State ranks a middling No. 7 in offensive efficiency this year, and that\u2019s actually an achievement given their poor shooting. Golden State is No. 13 in the league in true shooting percentage. They chuck the most threes in the league — 30.7 per game –and chase the offensive rebound when they don\u2019t hit, but in the playoffs you usually need a guard who can break down the defense off the dribble. Williams and Burton have done an excellent job moonlighting as creators, but neither is an ideal option for engineering efficient halfcourt offense. I thought the Valks needed a Kelsey Plum trade at the deadline<\/a>, but they understandably didn\u2019t want to break up their rotation to make it work. Can Golden State score enough to win it all? Is an elite defense truly impenetrable when it doesn\u2019t have an ace rim protector? The Valkyries are well coached and tough as hell. They\u2019re going to have to drag teams through the mud to win it all.<\/p>\n A\u2019Ja Wilson is likely the WNBA MVP again, and at this point she has a pretty convincing argument as the GOAT of women\u2019s basketball. Wilson\u2019s four MVPs are already the most in league history, and she should be set to win No. 5. Value Plus Minus is an advanced stat by Databallr that estimates a player\u2019s impact on scoring margin. Well, Wilson\u2019s +7.2 leads the league by a comical amount with Miles coming in at No. 2 at +4.9. Wilson has an elite co-star in Jackie Young, who is one of the best all-around guards in the W. Young\u2019s three-point shot has been a weapon for years, but she\u2019s also an excellent playmaker who can suppress turnovers pretty well. Add in Chelsea Gray, who is still a brilliant passer and capable shooter at age-33, and the Aces still look like the Aces on their best nights.<\/p>\n The Aces just aren\u2019t very deep, and it\u2019s hard to make it through the playoff battlefield without depth. Chennedy Carter still grades out as their fourth most impactful player in most metrics, and she was cut on July 7. Jewell Loyd isn\u2019t the same offensive force she was at her peak, and at this point she\u2019s taking 71% of her field goal attempts from three, but is only making 31% of them. Mai Yamamoto has given the team a little playmaking spark lately. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus can still be an innings eater inside in small doses, and Stephanie Talbot can add some front court playmaking. The Aces\u2019 bench just doesn\u2019t have the physicality or the explosiveness teams ideally want, and at this point they better pray NaLyssa Smith\u2019s recent injury isn\u2019t serious. I could see the Aces losing in the first round, but I want to give them the benefit of the doubt with Wilson and Young leading the way. This team feels like it has the widest range of outcomes of anyone in the playoffs, but it\u2019s hard to discount having the best player in the world and tons of championship experience.<\/p>\n