Let\u2019s start, as we often do, with a simple question.<\/p>\n
Which running back do you want?<\/p>\n
Your draft is likely in the next few weeks and you gotta have some strong running backs, so let\u2019s do some research.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m going to tell you about two running backs that are being drafted in the same round and I want you to read the analysis and tell me which RB you\u2019d rather have\u2026<\/p>\n
\u201cRunning Back A\u201d is just an absolute fantasy superstar. A consistent producer who spent nine different weeks as a top 12 RB last year. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson had more weeks as a \u201cRB1\u201d last season. Obviously, you know about his passing game role and his explosiveness, as \u201cRunning Back A\u201d averages 9.1 yards per reception for his career. That\u2019s the second highest average among RBs with 100+ targets in the last three seasons. But it\u2019s not just his work in the passing game. Our guy is a scoring machine. A true finisher at the goal line. You\u2019d probably not be shocked to learn he was top five in the NFL in goal-to-go carries and had double-digit scores last season. Still just 25, his underlying numbers keep popping. Coming off a year where he set career highs for yards after contact per rush and broken tackle rate, plus improved his yards per carry average from the season prior, it\u2019s clear \u201cRunning Back A\u201d is ready to take another leap this season.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, is it any shock that you\u2019ve seen \u201cRunning Back B\u201d on a bunch of \u201cbust\u201d lists this year? He\u2019s in a full-blown committee and probably on the wrong side of it. Did you know his 48% snap percentage was 38th among running backs last year? 38th. Outside the top 25 at running back in touches per game, it\u2019s hard to see how the veteran \u201cRunning Back B\u201d has consistent fantasy value this year barring an injury to the other younger RB in that backfield.. He doesn\u2019t get goal line work (under 55% of his team\u2019s goal-to-go rushes), and he doesn\u2019t get his team\u2019s red zone work (under 50%) \u2013 both of those rates are outside the top 20 among other RBs. I guess it\u2019s not surprising res zone work and touchdown production are spread out on this team given the multitude of options at running back and a quarterback with a nose for the end zone himself. However, you hoped there would at least be a lot of passing down work for \u201cRunning Back B.\u201d <\/p>\n
And yet he has just an 8% target share (38th among running backs) and last season had only three games with more than three targets. Not to mention, he played on just 13% of third downs. So, a RB who\u2019s in a full-blown committee and not involved in the passing game? Yeesh. Let someone else deal with him this year.<\/p>\n
Ok, so which running back do you want this season?<\/p>\n
Realize that every single thing I just wrote about each player above is 100% true, heavily researched, verified, and completely accurate. You\u2019re in the draft room, clock is ticking down, and you gotta make a pick in the next 10 seconds.<\/p>\n
You\u2019ve listened to podcasts, watched videos, and read a ton, including around 500 stat-filled words from me on two different running backs. You\u2019ve been prepping for this day all summer. The choice should be easy, right? You know which RB you want, right? I\u2019ve made it fairly obvious. Grab the clearly better RB and let\u2019s start figuring out which one of our league mates we are gonna screw over by grabbing their starting RB\u2019s backup, right?<\/p>\n
Well, hang on for one more second. Before you click \u201cdraft\u201d there\u2019s one other fact you should know. \u201cRunning Back A\u201d is James Cook.<\/p>\n
Oh, and \u201cRunning Back B\u201d?<\/p>\n
That\u2019s also James Cook.<\/p>\n
Yeah.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n Bills’ Cook could struggle living up to ADP<\/p>\n Matthew Berry explains why James Cook is one of his potential fantasy busts this season, pointing to his contract holdout in camp and the addition of multiple offensive weapons in Buffalo.<\/p>\n You see, I can make stats say anything I want. Literally, anything I want. What\u2019s the phrase? There are three kinds of lies.<\/p>\n Lies, damned lies, and statistics. I can talk up or down any player I want. I just have to choose the right stats for the job.<\/p>\n Or use FantasyLife.com\u2019s Utilization HQ<\/a>, which is the sickest research tool that breaks down just about every player and their usage. Or you can ask my producer Damian Dabrowski to find the right stat, which I did at various points in this column.<\/p>\n The point is, everything in this column is an accurate statistical statement that has been heavily researched and double checked. They are heavily-vetted, purposefully-thought-out, 100% true, can\u2019t-be-argued-with, black and white facts.<\/p>\n That only tells PART of the story.<\/p>\n The part of the story I want you to see. But ONLY that part. The part that supports whatever opinion I have on a player. Whatever opinion I want to try and convince you of.<\/p>\n For my example this year, I wanted to show how I can make the same player seem either great or awful, and I told the truth in each paragraph. For \u201cRunning Back A\u201d when I wanted to talk up Cook, it was easy given his crazy touchdown equity last year. He scored 16 touchdowns in 12 games, so I just needed to spread those stats out without saying \u201c16 touchdowns\u201d because that would have given it away. I ignored all his usage issues both as a runner and pass catcher, and instead just focused on his great yards per reception average. He does have one; he just doesn\u2019t get very many receptions. So, I ignored that. I chose the broken tackle rate and yards after contact per rush because honestly there wasn\u2019t a lot of other stats to choose from where he actually made an improvement last year beyond the touchdowns.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, talking Cook down was also easy. While yes, he did score a crazy amount of touchdowns it\u2019s also true that he got less than 55% of those carries. It\u2019s just when he did get a goal-to-go carry, he converted it. And okay, James Cook at 25 isn\u2019t old, but it IS true that Ray Davis is younger than him (by two months, lol) and was drafted more recently, so Cook is technically an older veteran compared to him. Cook also usually gets less than 15 touches per game, and Josh Allen is a legit threat to run. It\u2019s just that offense is so explosive, it didn\u2019t matter last year. So, super simple right? Talk him up \u2013 focus on the touchdowns.<\/p>\n Talk him down, focus on the concerning usage.<\/p>\n And I can do what I did with James Cook for any player in the NFL. Because, you see, there is actually very little in this world I am good at. But one thing I am a world class master at? Writing and manipulating stats to tell whatever story I want.<\/p>\n And I want to let you in on one more secret: I am not the only one.<\/p>\n Everyone does it. EVERYONE. Some are better at it than others, but everyone does it.<\/p>\n They do it in fantasy football analysis, they do it in office presentations, they do it in pop culture, and while arguing at the bar. And spend five minutes on any social media searching for politics to see it go insanely over the top from both sides.<\/p>\n Everyone tells you the stats or side of the story that supports what THEY think. But they don\u2019t tell you the whole story.<\/p>\n And this is probably the best advice I can give you about fantasy football research all season. It\u2019s why this is usually the first column I write every year (went out of order with Draft Day Manifesto dropping last week<\/a>). So, this year it\u2019s the second column, but whatever. I make the same points every year, reminding you of the same message, and making the same confession.<\/p>\n Because it\u2019s crucial. There\u2019s not a more crucial piece of information.<\/p>\n As you start your research, you have to understand that NOTHING you read\/watch\/listen to from me this year (or anyone else) is black and white. It\u2019s ALL shades of gray.<\/p>\n Opinions, really. Opinions presented as facts. As you go through this preseason (and frankly, life) you\u2019ll have a zillion folks tell you why this player is awesome and this other one is a bum and why you can\u2019t leave your draft without this guy, but you have to let others draft this other guy and it\u2019s all just opinions on players. They\u2019ll throw facts, stats, and snippets of game film to support their side. They\u2019ll share a cherry-picked coach\u2019s quote or the three best plays from training camp that support their opinion. And ONLY that opinion.<\/p>\n The challenge these days is NOT finding information, it\u2019s trying to wade through it all to decide what to believe and what to ignore. We live in an era of information overload.<\/p>\n Take dumb ol\u2019 me for example. Here at NBC Sports\/Rotoworld\/Peacock I do a daily, hour-long show (\u201cFantasy Football Happy Hour\u201d) that airs LIVE this year at Noon ET on YouTube<\/a> and at 5 p.m. ET on Peacock. It\u2019s available on demand on YouTube, Peacock and wherever you get your podcasts. During the season, I also have a Sunday morning show (\u201cFantasy Football Pregame\u201d) from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and YouTube. I\u2019m on Football Night in America before every single Sunday Night Football game on NBC Sports and Peacock. I\u2019m constantly posting on my social media handles, where I am @MatthewBerryTMR on Twitter\/X, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok.<\/p>\n I also own Fantasy Life<\/a> where, if you\u2019d like to get a 100% free email from me and my team every single day with everything you need to know about fantasy football that day, you should sign up and check it out. Come on. It\u2019s free. If you hate it, just unsubscribe.<\/p>\n And by the way, wait till you see our FantasyLife+ product<\/a>.<\/p>\n We spent all off-season building a ridiculous set of tools<\/a> that are ALL personalized specifically to your exact league settings. Every league is unique, so we believe your advice should be too.<\/p>\n And if that\u2019s not enough, you can also subscribe to RotoPass.com a bundle site that includes FantasyLife+, a subscription to Peacock and access to many other great premium sites for one low price. It\u2019s only the best value on the internet.<\/p>\n Blatant over the top sales plugs aside\u2026 the point is\u2026 all that information, tools, shows, rankings, and articles are just me, right? Stupid amount. And I\u2019m one of many. There are tons of other men and women just like me doing really strong work both at NBCSports.com, FantasyLife.com, and elsewhere. Many other media companies, fantasy sports sites and shows where we are all talking and writing and arguing and tweeting and performing and blah blah blah. All of us trying to manipulate you into thinking how we do, starting with this column.<\/p>\n Frankly\u2026 it\u2019s a LOT.<\/p>\n So, your job? Watch the games, do the research, figure out which analysts you trust, and whose thinking aligns with yours. Question everyone and everything you hear, many times over, take it all in, and then make your own call.<\/p>\n Because honestly, that\u2019s all any of us are really doing. Taking a small piece of a big picture and making a call.<\/p>\n Everything that follows is a 100% completely accurate fact. Some of them are about players, some of them are about tendencies, and not a damn bit of it tells the whole story.<\/p>\n These are 100 facts you need to know before you draft in 2025. What you do with them is up to you.<\/p>\n 1. In the history of the NFL, there have been only three QBs to AVERAGE at least 50 rushing yards per game.<\/p>\n 2. Those QBs are Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and\u2026 Justin Fields.<\/p>\n 3. Since the Detroit Lions\u2019 bye week in the 2022 season, they have allowed a player to reach 100+ rushing yards against them just six times in 46 games.<\/p>\n 4. Three of those six games were Justin Fields.<\/p>\n 5. The Lions defensive coordinator those years was Aaron Glenn, the new head coach of the Jets.<\/p>\n 6. In his six starts for the Steelers in 2024, Justin Fields was the QB7 in fantasy points per game.<\/p>\n 6A. In 2023, Justin Fields was QB9 in PPG.<\/p>\n 6B. In 2022, Justin Fields was QB5 in PPG.<\/p>\n 6C. According to the FantasyLife.com Consensus ADP tool<\/a> that tracks every major site, Justin Fields is currently being drafted as QB13.<\/p>\n 6D. What are we doing here people? Seriously.<\/p>\n 7. Last season, the Chicago Bears allowed the eighth-most QB pressures.<\/p>\n 8. Last season, when pressured, Caleb Williams had a 35% off-target rate. That was the third-highest mark among qualified QBs.<\/p>\n 9. Last season, when he wasn\u2019t pressured, Caleb Williams had the fourth-best TD-INT ratio (among qualified quarterbacks).<\/p>\n 9A. This offseason, the Bears traded for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, signed center Drew Dalman in free agency, drafted tackle Ozzy Trapilo in the second round, and added Colston Loveland and Luther Burden to a receiving group that includes DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Maye has chance to be ‘borderline top 12’ QB<\/p>\n The FFHH crew analyze second-year quarterback Drake Maye, discussing why the New England Patriots signal-caller could be a borderline top 12 fantasy quarterbacks this season.<\/p>\n 10. Last year, there were only seven QBs that averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game.<\/p>\n 11. Six of those seven QBs ranked inside the top eight in designed QB runs.<\/p>\n 12. The one who didn\u2019t was Drake Maye.<\/p>\n 12A. This year, Maye has Josh McDaniels as his new offensive coordinator.<\/p>\n 12B. Josh McDaniels is not stupid.<\/p>\n 13. Last season, despite sub-optimal playing-calling, and a significantly worse supporting cast, Drake Maye still managed to score 17+ fantasy points in six of the 10 games in which he played at least 75% of the snaps.<\/p>\n 14. Last year, under Liam Coen as their play-caller, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished top three in the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.<\/p>\n 14A. And they were sixth in QB fantasy points.<\/p>\n 15. In his only season under Liam Coen, Baker Mayfield had a career high 378 rushing yards.<\/p>\n 16. Trevor Lawrence has added 2.5 PPG from just rushing alone in every season of his career.<\/p>\n 16A. This year, Trevor Lawrence is being coached by Liam Coen.<\/p>\n 16B. Per FantasyLife.com Consensus ADP, Trevor Lawrence is currently going as QB19.<\/p>\n 17. Last year, 33 different quarterbacks had more rushing yards than Jordan Love.<\/p>\n 18. Last year, 45 different quarterbacks had more rushing yards per game than Jordan Love\u2019s 5.5.<\/p>\n 19. Last year, the Packers ran the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL.<\/p>\n 19A. The other teams in the top three were quarterbacked by Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.<\/p>\n 20. Last year, from Week 10 on last season, only five quarterbacks had more fantasy points from rushing than\u2026 Bryce Young.<\/p>\n 21. Last year, from Week 12 on, only two quarterbacks had more fantasy points from rushing than\u2026 Bryce Young.<\/p>\n 22. Last year, from Week 10 on, on a PPG basis, Bryce Young was QB10.<\/p>\n 22A. This year, per FantasyLife.com consensus ADP, Bryce Young is going as QB23.<\/p>\n 23. Here\u2019s the entire list of non-quarterbacks that had at least 20 fantasy points in 10 games last year: Bijan Robinson.<\/p>\n 24. Here\u2019s the entire list of RBs last season to rank top five at the position in BOTH rush attempts AND targets: Bijan Robinson.<\/p>\n 25. From Week 6 on last year, here\u2019s the entire list of RBs to average more than Bijan Robinson\u2019s 22.8 PPG: (this space intentionally left blank).<\/p>\n 25A. Here\u2019s the entire list of running backs I have ranked higher than Bijan Robinson this year: (this space intentionally left blank).<\/p>\n 26. In the 11 games that Tua Tagovailoa started last year, De\u2019Von Achane averaged 22.6 PPG.<\/p>\n 27. Last year, 22.6 PPG would have been the No. 1 RB in fantasy football.<\/p>\n 28. Last year, no running back had more receptions or receiving yards than\u2026 De\u2019Von Achane.<\/p>\n 29. Last year, in games started by Tua Tagovailoa, De\u2019Von Achane had an 18% target share.<\/p>\n 30. This July, the Miami Dolphins traded away Jonnu Smith, who was second on the team with a 19.5% target share.<\/p>\n 31. Since he entered the NFL, De\u2019Von Achane leads all running backs in fantasy points per touch.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Brown ‘has opportunity’ in a great Bengals offense<\/p>\n Matthew Berry and Co. rave about Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown and share why they believe a breakout year is coming with the potential to become a top 10 fantasy RB.<\/p>\n 32. Starting in Week 9 of last season, Chase Brown of the Bengals took over the starting running back role.<\/p>\n 33. From Weeks 9-17 of last season, all Bengals running backs NOT named Chase Brown combined for nine total touches.<\/p>\n 33A. NINE.<\/p>\n 34. Starting in Week 9 of last season, Chase Brown played over 85% of the snaps, while averaging over 23 touches and 116 scrimmage yards per game.<\/p>\n 35. Starting in Week 9 of last season, Chase Brown was the fourth-best RB in PPG.<\/p>\n 36. The other RB currently on the Bengals are 29-year-old Samaje Perine (48 touches last year) and sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks.<\/p>\n 37. Over the last five seasons, here\u2019s the entire list of running backs who have played at least 13 games and have at least 700 rushing yards in all five years: Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery,… and James Conner.<\/p>\n 38. Last year, 29-year-old James Conner was a top three RB in both avoided tackle rate and percentage of runs gaining 10+ yards.<\/p>\n 39. Since coming to Arizona in 2021, James Conner has had at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and at least eight touchdowns every single year.<\/p>\n 40. Since coming to Arizona in 2021, James Conner has never finished lower than RB15 in PPG.<\/p>\n 40A. James Conner is currently going as RB19, around the 4\/5 turn.<\/p>\n 41. Here\u2019s the entire list of RBs with over 50 receptions in each of the last three seasons: Alvin Kamara.<\/p>\n 42. Here\u2019s the entire list of RBs with over 40 receptions in each of the last eight seasons: Alvin Kamara.<\/p>\n 43. Here\u2019s the entire list of RBs who had at least a 21.4% target share last year: Alvin Kamara.<\/p>\n 44. Last year, only two running backs had more games with at least 15 fantasy points than\u2026 Alvin Kamara.<\/p>\n 45. Last year, from Weeks 1-17, Ken Walker III started 11 games.<\/p>\n 45A. Last year, from Weeks 1-17, Zach Charbonnet started five games.<\/p>\n 46. If you just played whoever the starting RB from the Seahawks was last year, that spot would have averaged 18 PPG, which would have been RB6.<\/p>\n 47. Ken Walker III is currently going as RB15.<\/p>\n 47A. And Zach Charbonnet is going as RB38.<\/p>\n 48. Last season there were 31 different running backs that had at least 150 carries.<\/p>\n 49. Only two of them had at least 15% of their carries go for 10+ yards.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Mason, Jones could have even backfield split<\/p>\n Matthew Berry, Jay Croucher and Lawrence Jackson Jr. examine the Minnesota Vikings backfield situation, explaining why the team could deploy an even split between Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones.<\/p>\n 50. One of them is Jahmyr Gibbs. The other is\u2026 Jordan Mason.<\/p>\n 51. In 2024, 30-year-old Aaron Jones converted only five of his 20 goal-to-go opportunities.<\/p>\n