Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again.\u00a0In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia.\u00a0For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1\/100th the size of Nvidia.\u00a0Continue \u00bb<\/a> <\/p>\n The turning of the calendar to a new month means the Federal Reserve has new insights to offer on where inflation may head next. While the initial read on the central bank’s September inflation forecast may seem positive, a deeper dive uncovers a glaring red flag for Wall Street<\/a>. <\/p>\n Headline inflation is expected to ease in September <\/p>\n On weekdays, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcasting tool processes new economic data and adjusts its outlook for several inflation measures, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the aforementioned “headline inflation” measure. <\/p>\n Since trailing 12-month (TTM) inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, headline inflation has been declining. This three-year high was primarily driven by a brief surge in fuel prices tied to the Donald Trump-led Iran war. As crude oil prices retraced from their Iran war high, gas and diesel prices at the pump slowly followed. <\/p>\n In June and July, TTM inflation dipped to 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively. According to the Cleveland Fed’s latest update, the CPI is estimated to ease to 3.38% in August and 3.3% in September. <\/p>\n Lower headline inflation is undoubtedly the silver lining of the Federal Reserve’s initial September inflation forecast — but it doesn’t tell the complete story. <\/p>\n While headline inflation forecasts continue to fall, projections for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy costs, are climbing. Core PCE has historically been one of the favorite inflationary measures used by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) when setting monetary policy. <\/p>\n After peaking at close to a three-year high of 3.5% in May, Core PCE retraced to 3.3% in June and remained at the same level in July. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting tool sees Core PCE reaccelerating to 3.4% in August and 3.49% in September. <\/p>\n Rising Core PCE amid a decline in headline inflation suggests that Trumpflation (inflation caused by President Trump’s policies) is no longer just an energy issue. The inflationary effects of the Iran war, and more specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have reached the broader U.S. economy. Higher costs for petroleum-based goods (e.g., plastics), coupled with businesses being forced to reroute shipments and change suppliers, are examples of how added expenses are lifting consumer prices. <\/p>\n Core PCE forecasts also signal that Trumpflation is digging in its heels. Whereas energy supply shocks tend to be short-lived, the inflationary effects of the Iran war may last substantially longer than anyone expected. <\/p>\n This initial September inflation forecast suggests Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC will need to act sooner rather than later. If the FOMC raises interest rates to deliver on Warsh’s promise of price stability, it could end Wall Street’s sensational four-year bull market. Increasing borrowing costs amid a partially debt-financed artificial intelligence data center build-out is a potential recipe for disaster for Wall Street’s major stock indexes. <\/p>\n Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now? <\/p>\n Before you buy stock in\u00a0S&P 500 Index, consider this: <\/p>\n The Motley Fool\u00a0Stock Advisor\u00a0analyst team just identified what they believe are the\u00a010 best stocks<\/a>\u00a0for investors to buy now\u2026 and\u00a0S&P 500 Index\u00a0wasn’t one of them.\u00a0The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years. <\/p>\n Consider when\u00a0Netflix\u00a0made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0you’d have $446,157!*\u00a0Or\u00a0when\u00a0Nvidia\u00a0made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0you’d have $1,377,357!* <\/p>\n That performance is why people listen. With a track record of\u00a0beating the S&P 500 by nearly 5x,\u00a0Stock Advisor\u00a0offers a distinct advantage. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with\u00a0Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul. <\/p>\n See the 10 stocks \u00bb<\/a> <\/p>\n *Stock Advisor returns as of September 4, 2026. <\/p>\n Sean Williams<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/a> Image source: Getty Images. <\/p>\n
<\/a> Image source: Getty Images. Core inflation forecasts are climbing, signaling that Trumpflation is entrenched in the economy <\/p>\n