\n The administration\u2019s theory is grounded in a degree of real economic theory<\/a>: If the US economy grows at a significantly faster rate, its debt would eventually become relatively sustainable.\n <\/p>\n \n But to accomplish that, America\u2019s economy would need to grow at a faster rate for many years. That\u2019s not something any administration can control. And the idea assumes we won\u2019t keep adding massively to our debt, a theory belied by populist economic policies<\/a> supported by politicians on both sides of the aisle.\n <\/p>\n \n That\u2019s why the market isn\u2019t buying it. The math just doesn\u2019t math. Inflation is making a comeback<\/a>, spending is out of control, and Washington has no political will to fix either problem.\n <\/p>\n \n America\u2019s debt crossing the $40 trillion mark<\/a> last month sounded a number of alarm bells. But the most pressing question is whether \u2013 and how long \u2013 we can keep running massive deficits.\n <\/p>\n \n When economists try to determine whether the government\u2019s debt is sustainable, a common metric they look to is the difference between \u201cg\u201d (the economy\u2019s growth rate, or GDP) and \u201cr\u201d (the rate of interest on the debt, or 10-year Treasury yields).\n <\/p>\n \n When g is bigger than r, the debt becomes relatively insignificant compared to economic growth. When r is bigger than g, the debt can grow at an unsustainable pace.\n <\/p>\n \n That seems self-evident: If you keep getting a raise year after year and you\u2019re able to pay the interest on your debt today, you\u2019ll be able to pay it in the future, too \u2013 and it\u2019ll become easier to pay it down as your paycheck grows.\n <\/p>\n \n Economies don\u2019t function quite like consumers or businesses, and economists debate what \u201csustainable\u201d debt looks like. But right now, r is around 5%, and g is around 2%. That, at the very least, raises the risk that America\u2019s debt is on an unsustainable path.\n <\/p>\n \n But that\u2019s not the only metric flashing a warning about America\u2019s debt burden. The primary deficit \u2013 the difference between an economy\u2019s spending and tax revenue, minus interest payments \u2013 is also a concern.\n <\/p>\n \n When you compare the US primary deficit to its GDP, it has a ratio of 3%, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office<\/a> \u2014 and that\u2019s way above target. To be sustainable, a country\u2019s primary deficit needs to have a ratio of zero or a negative number.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThat\u2019s how bad the fiscal situation is,\u201d said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics.\n <\/p>\n \n So how much would the economy need to grow to ensure America\u2019s debt doesn\u2019t become unsustainable?\n <\/p>\n \n GDP would have to grow 6% a year over the course of the rest of Trump\u2019s term. We\u2019re not off to a great start: The economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace in the first quarter and a 1.5% pace in the second quarter.\n <\/p>\n \n In other words, we\u2019d have to see growth triple tomorrow.\n <\/p>\n \n If we want to get that done in 10 years, the economy would need to grow between 3% and 4% every year for a decade, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.\n <\/p>\n \n The last time the US economy sustained that kind of growth was in the 1990s, coincidentally the last time the country had a budget surplus.\n <\/p>\n \n But the United States would also have to stop accruing massive amounts of new debt. That means the end of the Iran war, no economic shocks and no big spending initiatives like the $5,000 dividend checks<\/a> that Trump proposed Wednesday, which would add $1 trillion to the debt.\n <\/p>\n \n Increasing growth would also lead to significant inflation \u2013 around 5% to 6% a year \u2013 a byproduct of an overheating economy, Brusuelas noted. The Federal Reserve would send interest rates higher in response, slowing the economy down.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThat math simply isn\u2019t there to grow one\u2019s way out of a $40 trillion debt,\u201d Brusuelas said.\n <\/p>\n![\"Treasury](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/c-gettyimages-2293870906.jpg\")
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