El Ni\u00f1o occurs when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing weather thousands of kilometres away.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a very high probability that it will exceed three degrees, which has never been seen in the past,\u201d said Marko Markovic, a manager with Environment and Climate Change Canada\u2019s Meteorological Service of Canada.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf (it\u2019s) not the highest, then among the highest.\u201d<\/p>\n
He was referring to ocean temperatures in the central Pacific, where El Ni\u00f1o develops. An event is considered very strong once those waters reach 2 C above normal.<\/p>\n
In Canada, those effects are normally clearest in the west.<\/p>\n
\u201cHistorically speaking, we do not have that much impact\u201d in southern Quebec from El Ni\u00f1o, Markovic said.<\/p>\n
British Columbia, the Prairies and parts of Ontario tend to see a much clearer El Ni\u00f1o signal, while Montreal sits closer to the edge of its usual influence.<\/p>\n
But the strongest El Ni\u00f1os tell a somewhat different story.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat is quite striking is that if you take the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events, the very warm winters actually extend all the way east,\u201d said Alain Bourque, executive director of Quebec climate consortium Ouranos.<\/p>\n
Bourque pointed to the three strongest events over roughly the past three decades, in which the average winter temperature anomaly around Montreal was about 1.5 C warmer than normal.<\/p>\n
Because the developing El Ni\u00f1o is expected to rank among the strongest on record, Bourque said there is an increased likelihood of a warmer-than-average winter here.<\/p>\n
Environment Canada is already leaning in that direction, although it is not ready to call the winter just yet.<\/p>\n
Its current forecast favours above-normal temperatures in southern Quebec this fall. The December-to-February outlook also points toward warmer-than-normal conditions, Markovic said, but in mid-September there is still \u201ca lot of uncertainty\u201d around the winter forecast.<\/p>\n
When asked whether the warmer outlook could be attributed directly to El Ni\u00f1o, Markovic said: \u201cNot necessarily.\u201d<\/p>\n
Other atmospheric patterns can influence any individual season, particularly in a region where El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s effect is less consistent.<\/p>\n
So, does a warmer winter mean Montrealers can expect less snow?<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no clear connection between El Ni\u00f1o and precipitation\u201d in southern Quebec, Markovic said.<\/p>\n
Parts of Canada, including central Quebec, tend to have drier El Ni\u00f1o winters, shorter snow seasons and less snowpack. Around Montreal, however, those patterns are much less reliable.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere might be a little bit more chance of having a bit more precipitation,\u201d Bourque said of the strongest El Ni\u00f1o analysis, \u201cbut to be quite honest, it\u2019s not a very reliable signal.\u201d<\/p>\n
There is even less reason to start predicting freezing rain.<\/p>\n
The exceptionally strong 1997-98 El Ni\u00f1o coincided with Montreal\u2019s devastating January 1998 ice storm, but \u201cI would avoid talking about only one event,\u201d Markovic said.<\/p>\n
Bourque was similarly cautious, saying there is no clear scientific evidence establishing a general link between El Ni\u00f1o and ice storms in Quebec.<\/p>\n
Whatever happens this winter will also unfold against a much longer-term warming trend.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is also a statistically significant signal of having warmer winters just because of climate change,\u201d Bourque said.<\/p>\n
That means the clearest bet for Montreal right now is on temperature, not whether the city will see less snow, more rain or another season of treacherous ice.<\/p>\n
This El Ni\u00f1o may be strong enough to push its usual Canadian footprint farther east. Exactly what that looks like on Montreal streets \u2014 snow, slush, rain or ice \u2014 is something the Pacific alone can\u2019t tell us yet.<\/p>\n
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