{"id":851509,"date":"2026-09-18T00:18:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T00:18:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/851509\/"},"modified":"2026-09-18T00:18:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T00:18:22","slug":"pending-home-sales-stuck-deep-in-mud-edge-up-from-down-revised-2nd-lowest-on-record-supply-hits-10-year-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/851509\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Stuck Deep in Mud, Edge up from Down-Revised 2nd Lowest on Record, Supply Hits 10-Year+ High"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t Sales were bad in all regions. But mortgage rates in August were still quite a bit lower than now.
\nBy\u00a0Wolf Richter<\/a>\u00a0for\u00a0WOLF STREET<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pending sales of existing homes for July were revised down today to the second-lowest in the data going back to 2010, just a hair above the all-time low set in January. And August sales edged up from this downwardly revised July to the level of the originally reported July \u2013 that\u2019s how deep in the mud sales have been stuck.<\/p>\n

Compared to the already stuck-in-the-mud levels in August last year, sales dropped by 4.7%, seasonally adjusted, and by 4.9% not seasonally adjusted, according to data from the National Association of Realtors today.<\/p>\n

Compared to August 2021, pending sales have collapsed by 39%, compared to 2020 by 45%, and compared to the Augusts in 2019 and 2018 by 33% and 32% respectively. Compared to August 2010, during the Housing Bust, and the first August in the data, sales were down by 13%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The NAR\u2019s metric of pending home sales tracks contracts that were signed in August but that haven\u2019t closed yet and could still get canceled. The rate of cancellations has been running high. Pending home sales are a preview of what is coming in terms of closed home sales.<\/p>\n

Sales volume has remained mostly below the lows of the Housing Bust for nearly four years \u2013 September will complete of the fourth year \u2013 after the home-price explosion from mid-2020 through mid-2022 created what is now called an \u201caffordability crisis\u201d amid home prices in many markets that no longer make economic sense.<\/p>\n

Amid soaring supply.<\/p>\n

The collapse in sales has triggered the highest supply of existing homes in over 10 years,<\/a> according to separate data from the National Association of Realtors:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Pending home sales by region.<\/p>\n

In the South,\u00a0pending sales rose by 2.3% in August from July, the second-lowest on record, seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n

Compared to August in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -3.8% (year-over-year)
\n2024: +1.1%.
\n2023: -2.4%
\n2022: -17.9%
\n2021:\u00a0-38.0%
\n2019:\u00a0-20.9%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In the West,\u00a0pending sales rose by 3.3% in August, to the second-lowest volume in the data, after plunging in July to a record low, seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n

Compared to August in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -6.7% (year-over-year)
\n2024: -8.3%
\n2023: -3.9%
\n2022: -24.2%
\n2021:\u00a0-47.5%
\n2019: -44.2%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In the Midwest,\u00a0pending sales fell by 1.6% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n

Compared to August in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -4.9% (year-over-year)
\n2024: +0.7%
\n2023: -0.7%
\n2022: -18.2%
\n2021:\u00a0-35.6%
\n2019:\u00a0-27.6%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In the Northeast,\u00a0pending sales fell by 4.2% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n

Compared to August in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -3.9% (year-over-year)
\n2024: -0.8%
\n2023: -2.2%
\n2022: -19.5%
\n2021:\u00a0-34.9%
\n2019:\u00a0-33.7%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

30-year fixed mortgage rates\u00a0rose to a weekly average of 6.95% in the latest reporting week, according to Freddie Mac today.<\/p>\n

The daily measure by Mortgage News Daily has been above 7% for several days and today is at 7.19%.<\/p>\n

In August, when the contracts for these pending sales were signed, mortgage rates were still in the 6.5% to 6.7% range, per Freddie Mac data, and in the 6.7% to 6.8% range per Mortgage News Daily data.<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates have been in the 6% to 8% range since September 2022.<\/p>\n

These mortgage rates are in the lower portion of the range that prevailed in the decades before 2009, before the Fed\u2019s QE and zero-interest-rate policy began to distort the markets.<\/p>\n

So today\u2019s mortgage rates are not too high. What\u2019s too high is inflation and home prices after the home-price explosion from mid-2020 to mid-2022. These high home prices have inflated homeowners\u2019 insurance premiums property taxes, and other carrying costs that drain consumer spending elsewhere, and have become a liability for the housing market and for the economy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In case you missed it: Inventory of New Single-Family Homes Jumps, Prices Drop to Lowest since 2021, Sales Sag<\/a><\/p>\n

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

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