{"id":854959,"date":"2026-09-21T02:40:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/854959\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T02:40:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:40:11","slug":"phr-mailbag-breakout-players-draft-lottery-finnie-playoffs-rangers-expansion-inflation-pro-hockey-rumors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/854959\/","title":{"rendered":"PHR Mailbag: Breakout Players, Draft Lottery, Finnie, Playoffs, Rangers, Expansion, Inflation \u2013 Pro Hockey Rumors"},"content":{"rendered":"

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include potential under-the-radar breakout players, playoff predictions, and more.\u00a0 If your question doesn\u2019t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag<\/a> columns<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nha Trang: Heh, you know the annual Tage Thompson<\/a> question\u2019s coming, Brian: what guys are going to come out of nowhere to become serious impact players?<\/p>\n

Before getting into this year\u2019s answer, let\u2019s look back at last year\u2019s selection of Zach Benson<\/a>.\u00a0 He jumped up to 43 points in 65 regular season games, then had a breakout performance in the playoffs, helping earn him a long-term contract.\u00a0 That\u2019s not a Tage Thompson-level breakout like the first year of this question but it\u2019s an improvement over the year before.\u00a0 (For anyone curious about the pick history, it\u2019s recapped here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Back in 2022-23, I put in the self-imposed restriction of not taking a player in the top 300 in scoring from the previous season.\u00a0 That basically rules out anyone with 30 or more points so pickings are pretty slim.\u00a0 And while I could cheat and pick Kent Johnson<\/a> to have a rebound year, he\u2019s already technically had a breakout season (in 2024-25).\u00a0 Youngsters like Gabriel Perreault<\/a>, Zeev Buium<\/a>, Easton Cowan<\/a>, Michael Misa<\/a>, and Dalibor Dvorsky<\/a> could fit the bill but wouldn\u2019t be coming out of nowhere either.<\/p>\n

And you\u2019re asking for guys, as in plural, this year.\u00a0 So, let\u2019s go quickly.\u00a0 Pavel Mintyukov<\/a> in Anaheim is still a youngster himself but he\u2019s off his entry-level contract.\u00a0 Anaheim\u2019s back end is a disaster behind Jackson LaCombe<\/a>.\u00a0 That should pave the way for Mintyukov to get a much bigger role with minimal competition for minutes, allowing him to blossom into the defenseman they\u2019re paying for on his new hefty contract.\u00a0 He could plausibly go from being a fourth or fifth defender to a number two option and he seems to be flying under the radar a bit.<\/p>\n

Up front, let\u2019s go with Maksim Shabanov<\/a>.\u00a0 He was supposed to be an impactful rookie last year out of the KHL but he struggled offensively in a program where a lot of offensive players seem to underwhelm.\u00a0 Now, he\u2019s on a one-year deal that almost feels like a last-chance contract already.\u00a0 There are top-six minutes available and if he lands with Kirill Kaprizov<\/a> at times, he could be in for a big jump point-wise.\u00a0 While Tyson Foerster<\/a> isn\u2019t an out-of-nowhere player, he\u2019s coming off an injury-riddled year but he now has the long-term contract and expectations to help Philadelphia stay in the playoffs.\u00a0 Jumping from 17 points to a career-best 60-point campaign wouldn\u2019t shock me.<\/p>\n

rayk: I understand the idea of a draft lottery is to prevent so-called \u201ctanking\u201d. Do you think that it goes too far when in the last two drafts, teams like NYI, Utah and SJ move up so many slots when they are all borderline playoff teams? Why is the system set up so that so many teams can get top-four picks? Thanks.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s answer the last one first.\u00a0 The system is set up to deter teams from trying to truly bottom out like Vancouver did last season.\u00a0 It used to be that finishing last meant you picked first or had a really high chance to do so.\u00a0 By creating flatter lottery odds, teams are supposed to be more disinclined to race to the bottom.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s necessarily having the desired effect but that\u2019s the why of it.<\/p>\n

As for the last couple of drafts, in 2025, the Islanders won with a 3.5% chance and the Sharks, who finished dead last, won the second slot (in other words, they lost a spot).\u00a0 This year, Toronto won with an 8.5% chance and then the Sharks again got second, this time with just 5% odds.\u00a0 If we go back to 2024, there was no movement at all; the bottom two teams won the top two picks.<\/p>\n

Probabilistically speaking, the combined odds of a team with 3.5% odds winning one year and 8.5% odds winning the next is less than one-third of one percent.\u00a0 In other words, that combination was a total fluke and isn\u2019t likely to be repeated or assumed to continue.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure the league is necessarily worried about that.\u00a0 They probably like the element of randomness in the hopes of getting teams to think twice about tanking.<\/p>\n

Is it too far?\u00a0 I don\u2019t think it is.\u00a0 The odds were leaned more toward the bottom teams before, resulting in several teams outright tanking.\u00a0 That\u2019s what led to this system.\u00a0 Maybe it can be tightened up to reduce the number of teams that could move up to pick first.\u00a0 Perhaps a team can only move up eight spots instead of ten (it used to be four), or something like that.\u00a0 But I don\u2019t mind the current system overall.<\/p>\n

deca guard: Can Finnie play center in the NHL?<\/p>\n

Emmitt Finnie<\/a>, one of the neat stories last season, made the Red Wings out of training camp as a 20-year-old seventh-round pick and never looked back.\u00a0 He spent a good chunk of time in the top six but almost exclusively played on the wing as he got acclimated to playing at a new level probably earlier than anyone realistically would have expected.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>For those not familiar with Finnie, he was a center back in junior with WHL Kamloops (full time in his final two seasons) and while faceoff success rate isn\u2019t the be-all, end-all, he was over 55% at the dot.\u00a0 That suggests he can get to at least an acceptable level on that front in the NHL.\u00a0 But there is more to playing center than faceoff play.\u00a0 Shift-to-shift consistency, defensive awareness, and attention to detail need to be present as well and that wasn\u2019t always the case for Finnie last season.\u00a0 That\u2019s not a slight either; he was a 20-year-old who bypassed the AHL.\u00a0 Of course there are going to be some deficiencies there.<\/p>\n

He showed enough good moments to make me think he can handle playing the position although I\u2019m not sure he\u2019d necessarily thrive there.\u00a0 But if his consistency picks up and the two-way game remains, then Finnie could very well be a capable option down the middle.\u00a0 I expect he\u2019ll predominantly remain on the wing this season (unless trades force their hand otherwise) but I hope they find a spot to give him a few games here and there to start lower-level evaluations of his fit.\u00a0 Given their perpetual need for capable centers, it\u2019s an experiment worth trying.<\/p>\n

Breakaway: 4 in and 4 out.<\/p>\n

What four teams make the playoffs this year that didn\u2019t make it last year and what four teams fall out of the playoffs?<\/p>\n

Atlantic: Tampa Bay is still strong enough to be a playoff team, as is Montreal.\u00a0 Buffalo has taken a step back but I think they\u2019re in the Wild Card mix still.\u00a0 A lot went right for Boston last year and it wouldn\u2019t shock me if they took a step back so let\u2019s pick them to miss.\u00a0 Florida is the safe bet to go from missing to making.<\/p>\n

The question is if there\u2019s going to be another flip.\u00a0 And considering my picks to come in the West, I suppose I need to pick another one here.\u00a0 By process of elimination, that means Ottawa comes out.\u00a0 I don\u2019t trust Detroit to right the ship with how chaotic things are there right now so by process of elimination, I guess Toronto comes in.\u00a0 If they get stabilized goaltending this season, it\u2019s plausible that they could be in the mix.<\/p>\n

Metropolitan: Carolina\u2019s a lock.\u00a0 Washington going from a non-playoff team to a top-three team in the division seems likely.\u00a0 After that is a toss-up.\u00a0 I have to pick either Philadelphia or Pittsburgh to come out and I would pick Pittsburgh between the two.\u00a0 That\u2019s not to say I\u2019m overly confident about the Flyers either, though.<\/p>\n

The thing is, I don\u2019t trust any other team in that division.\u00a0 The Islanders look like a team that could just miss again, though them squeaking in wouldn\u2019t shock me.\u00a0 The Rangers are different but I\u2019m not sure how much better they are going back to last season when they had Artemi Panarin<\/a>.\u00a0 Columbus is in some trouble and are a better candidate to finish eighth in the division than make the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s New Jersey.\u00a0 They have a playoff-caliber roster up front and on the back end.\u00a0 But their goaltending is a giant red flag.\u00a0 Jake Allen<\/a> isn\u2019t a starter, David Rittich<\/a> is a mediocre backup, and Nico Daws<\/a> may or may not be an NHL-level backup.\u00a0 I expect their goaltending to cost them a playoff spot so as of today, I have them out.\u00a0 If they get a real starter, however, then move them in and the Flyers out.<\/p>\n

Central: The big three remain the big three.\u00a0 Utah is at the top of the next tier and should secure a Wild Card spot.\u00a0 I don\u2019t see any of the other four getting in there.\u00a0 If everything went right in St. Louis, they could make it interesting if the Central winds up with both Wild Cards but as of today, I\u2019m forecasting no changes here (which is why I had to pick two in the Atlantic to meet the requirement of four).\u00a0 I\u2019m expecting Winnipeg eventually trades Connor Hellebuyck<\/a> without getting a true starter back which probably has them on the outside again as Stuart Skinner<\/a> isn\u2019t the guy to lead them to the promised land.<\/p>\n

Pacific: Vegas made it interesting last season but they\u2019ll be fine.\u00a0 A more structured Edmonton roster keeps them in the mix.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think the Kings are materially better than a Wild Card team but I think they can hold that spot again.\u00a0 And let\u2019s quickly rule out Calgary, Vancouver, and Seattle, whose fortunes shouldn\u2019t be much different than a year ago.<\/p>\n

Thus, my final change of four is San Jose in and Anaheim out.\u00a0 The Sharks are better and deeper than they were a year ago with plenty of developmental runway for more improvement.\u00a0 They\u2019re not a Cup contender but I think they\u2019re a playoff contender.\u00a0 The Ducks have a lot of room for internal growth, too, but their back end is nowhere near good enough.\u00a0 That will put too much pressure on Lukas Dostal<\/a> and whichever underwhelming veteran secures the backup job, causing them to fall out.<\/p>\n

lgr34561: I know a lot of people are confused by the Korpisalo trade but maybe if the Rangers are struggling again, they will attempt to trade Shesterkin and land a massive haul while clearing out a load of cap space.\u00a0 That way, they can try to build toward the future and maybe use that cap to land a superstar in free agency.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think the Rangers acquired Joonas Korpisalo<\/a> as insurance for a potential Igor Shesterkin<\/a> trade.\u00a0 They acquired him because they evidently don\u2019t trust Dylan Garand<\/a> as a full-time backup goalie.\u00a0 Korpisalo is a serviceable second-string option while Garand is unproven.\u00a0 Given the relatively cheap acquisition price, they felt it was worthwhile.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll play along with the scenario though.\u00a0 Assuming Shesterkin moves, they\u2019d have to get a starter back as a Korpisalo-Garand tandem is a ticket to the basement in the standings which is unappealing to free agents.\u00a0 If they\u2019re getting a starter back, the net savings will only be a few million.\u00a0 That won\u2019t be enough to go after an impact piece in free agency, let alone a superstar.<\/p>\n

On that last point, how often does a star player, let alone a superstar, even make it to the open market?\u00a0 With the projected cap increases, teams have more flexibility to try to retain their players.\u00a0 Meanwhile, as some players become more emboldened about trying to coerce a trade to a desired team, that makes them less likely to test free agency as well.\u00a0 If you\u2019re a general manager waiting on a superstar free agent to come in and give your team a boost, that\u2019s a strategy that seems likely to fail much more than it works now.<\/p>\n

Black Ace57: With the growing talk about expanding with another two teams, I was thinking about the Golden Knights and Kraken expansion drafts. While one team did much better than the other, both benefited from being the only new team. Do you think the league is going to add two teams the same season when they do or do you think there will be any consideration of staggering the expansion so each team gets their own expansion drafts?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t believe that\u2019s the current plan.\u00a0 While there is speculative talk beyond another Texas-based team with both Atlanta and Phoenix in the mix, they seem to be a lot further along the process with the Texas options than the others.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think they\u2019d want to wait on that team launching until another one gets through the process.\u00a0 In Atlanta\u2019s case along, there are at least three different groups pursuing a team, all with different arena and development plans.\u00a0 That will slow the process down.<\/p>\n

Like Vegas and Seattle, I don\u2019t think there will be a particularly long gap between the two new franchises entering but both of them will get their own expansion drafts.\u00a0 Then, the question will be how many more wind up joining them after that as I\u2019m sure once they start this next round, they\u2019re not stopping at 34.<\/p>\n

LifesABeach: Do fans realize they\u2019re paying the skyrocketing player salaries through hyperinflation of products offered by advertisers and media conglomerates?<\/p>\n

Greed will sink society. $700 for a jersey or $25 for a burger. It\u2019s fine, as long as Makar makes $100K\/minute played.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m sure some do.\u00a0 Some probably don\u2019t look at it that way or care, though, as long as their favorite player stays or their team adds someone new.<\/p>\n

Being a professional sports fan is an expensive hobby.\u00a0 Even if you don\u2019t go to games or buy merchandise, too; merely keeping up with the cost of the various packages to watch games on television or streaming is expensive enough.\u00a0 But by now, you know what you\u2019re getting into, albeit somewhat begrudgingly at times.<\/p>\n

Without getting into a big economic dissertation, if people didn\u2019t pay the prices, some would come down.\u00a0 Most teams use dynamic pricing, knowing it ultimately brings in more money.\u00a0 But if people didn\u2019t buy at the premium points and there was a lot of unsold ticket inventory on game day, teams would change.\u00a0 Same with merchandise and concessions.\u00a0 But if there are enough people willing to keep paying higher prices, teams and media companies are going to keep charging higher prices.\u00a0 It\u2019s annoying for sure but it\u2019s not going away.<\/p>\n

Photo courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include potential under-the-radar breakout players, playoff predictions, and more.\u00a0 If…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":854960,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,5626,5627,99],"class_list":["post-854959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-phr-mailbag","tag-pro-hockey-rumors-originals","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=854959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/854959\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/854960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=854959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=854959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=854959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}