{"id":859225,"date":"2026-09-24T17:58:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T17:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/859225\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T17:58:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T17:58:25","slug":"boston-fed-explains-why-massachusetts-job-growth-stalled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/859225\/","title":{"rendered":"Boston Fed explains why Massachusetts job growth stalled"},"content":{"rendered":"

Exhibit A is the job market, where hiring has trailed the country as a whole over the past four years. Unemployment remains low \u2014 4.3 percent in August<\/a> \u2014 but that\u2019s largely because the ranks of available workers are shrinking as boomers retire and immigration is restricted.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been quick to blame<\/a> the usual suspects for the state\u2019s economic malaise, including a dearth of reasonably priced housing, high living costs, an inhospitable business climate, and, more recently, hostile Trump administration policies. <\/p>\n

Get Trendlines<\/p>\n

A business newsletter from Globe Columnist Larry Edelman covering the trends shaping business and the economy in Boston and beyond.<\/p>\n

But a new report<\/a> from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston adds another layer to the explanation: Massachusetts simply couldn\u2019t continue to create jobs faster than the rest of the country, as it had done for most of 2009 through 2022 (the COVID shutdown of February through April 2020 being the key exception). <\/p>\n

Much of Massachusetts\u2019 outperformance came from a few industries that were growing at a pace they couldn\u2019t sustain over the long haul \u2014 and when they slowed, so did the whole state.<\/p>\n

The latest: Massachusetts\u2019 rapid employment growth was powered primarily by professional and business services firms, health care and social assistance providers, and construction related to those sectors, Boston Fed researchers Riley Sullivan<\/a> and Jeffrey P. Thompson<\/a> said in a brief released Thursday. <\/p>\n

These industries accounted for one-third of employment in the state in early 2009, and they were responsible for nearly two-thirds of the jobs that were added from that year to early 2020.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe rates of growth in these sectors during the pre-pandemic expansion and the early phases of the pandemic, for example, were above trend and likely unsustainable over the longer term,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: Housing affordability, taxes, and business regulations are frequently cited as factors behind the sluggish Massachusetts job market and low competitiveness rankings<\/a> versus other states.<\/p>\n

But such shortcomings aren\u2019t unique to Massachusetts.<\/p>\n

\u201cHousing costs, for example, surged in the Boston metro area following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the increases were in line with national trends. . . Compared with those of other major US high-tech hubs, Boston\u2019s housing costs are in the middle of the pack,\u201d according to the Boston Fed report.<\/p>\n

The cost of housing is \u201cnot crucial to the survival of the cutting-edge innovation sector,\u201d Thompson said in an interview, because salaries are high.<\/p>\n

Zoom in: Sullivan and Thompson chart Massachusetts\u2019 employment boom during the 2010s and the slowdown that began in mid-2022.<\/p>\n

From January 2007, prior to the financial crisis, through January 2020, statewide payrolls<\/a> expanded 14 percent, compared with 11 percent nationally.After the shutdown, from April 2020 to July 2022, Massachusetts employment growth also outpaced the US average.But starting in mid-2022, the state fell behind, with payrolls expanding 0.6 percent through July 2026, compared with 3.8 percent nationally.<\/p>\n

What went wrong: The same sectors that fueled the state\u2019s hiring binge are now holding back growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Professional and business services employment growth has lagged the US average by 4.5 percentage points since mid-2022, while growth in health care and social assistance has trailed by 13 percentage points. Construction job growth has been 5 percentage points below the national rate, in large part because a glut of empty laboratory space halted new projects.<\/p>\n

The Boston Fed paper didn\u2019t try to explain what triggered the deceleration. Thompson told me that the post-COVID employment surge in these sectors was unlikely to last.<\/p>\n

In health care and medical research, \u201csome of the hiring was in response to COVID,\u201d he said. In tech and elsewhere, \u201coverhiring was a response to short-term demand. . . [But] it doesn\u2019t explain everything.\u201d<\/p>\n

The researchers estimate that Massachusetts would have added 215,000 more jobs from January 2020 to July 2026 if employment growth had matched the national rate.<\/p>\n

Final thought: The state\u2019s knowledge-intensive, high-paying sectors are growing slowly but are not foundering, according to Sullivan and Thompson. <\/p>\n

They remain \u201chighly productive and competitive relative to their national counterparts,\u201d the researchers said.<\/p>\n

What will jolt the local job market out of its torpor? The Boston Fed\u2019s brief didn\u2019t include a forecast, but Thompson noted that San Francisco has bounced back<\/a> on the strength of artificial intelligence. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt can happen in other places,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Exhibit A is the job market, where hiring has trailed the country as a whole over the past…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":859226,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[204701,28,362717,133505,101,192,6956,362716,30596,308,2001,688,24,2986],"class_list":["post-859225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-boston-massachusetts","tag-business","tag-carrying","tag-construction-worker","tag-economy","tag-environment","tag-extreme-weather","tag-heat-temperature","tag-heat-wave","tag-horizontal","tag-massachusetts","tag-photography","tag-usa","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/859225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=859225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/859225\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/859226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=859225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=859225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=859225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}