The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL)<\/a> crowd is leaning bearish for the Sept. 29 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 29?” contract currently reflects a 40% chance of a higher open. <\/p>\n Traders are managing negative index futures alongside escalating Middle East headlines and key economic releases: <\/p>\n Lower Index Futures: Equity futures indicate a red open across major benchmarks. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.26%, Dow Jones futures fell 0.24%, Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.44%, and Russell 2000 futures slipped 0.41%. <\/p>\n Geopolitics & Soaring Oil: Energy prices jumped as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s New York visit ended without<\/a> an extended deal, though indirect talks continue through Qatari mediators. President Donald Trump denied reports offering Iran sanctions relief, calling them a “HOAX,” as Washington’s official response to Iran’s proposal is expected Tuesday. Brent crude futures surged 1.97% to $99.76 per barrel, while WTI crude jumped 1.71% to $94.18 per barrel. <\/p>\n Economic Data, Fed Speakers & Earnings: Tuesday’s docket includes July S&P Case-Shiller home price index data at 9:00 a.m. ET, followed by September’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and August JOLTS job openings at 10:00 a.m. ET. Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) and John Williams (New York) are scheduled to speak later in the afternoon. Major earnings reports include Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<\/a>CCL<\/a>), CarMax (NYSE:<\/a>KMX<\/a>), Concentrix Corp. (NASDAQ:<\/a>CNXC<\/a>), and AAR Corp. (NYSE:<\/a>AIR<\/a>). <\/p>\n Market Outlook & Tech Focus <\/p>\n The macroeconomic backdrop is facing friction as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.3%\u2014a 60-basis-point surge over the past month. Technology strategist Luke Lango noted that while this tightening exerts pressure on risk assets, the underlying fundamentals of the AI buildout remain intact. <\/p>\n Addressing recent security findings at OpenAI, Lango highlighted that enhanced safety monitoring itself requires roughly 20% of inference compute workloads, turning safety safeguards into a growing source of compute demand. With major semiconductor ETFs (SMH and SOXX) holding above summer breakout levels, Lango views current market pullbacks as a potential buying opportunity ahead of an anticipated fourth-quarter breakout once geopolitical headwinds ease. <\/p>\n How the Previous Bet Played Out <\/p>\n The Sept. 28 Polymarket contract<\/a> resolved “Down,” recording $44,522 in total trading volume as equities opened lower. (The Sept. 25 contract resolved “Up” with $76,202 in total volume). <\/p>\n On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<\/a>SPY<\/a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<\/a>QQQ<\/a>), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 0.74% to $765.61, while QQQ dropped 1.07% to $736.53. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:<\/a>DIA<\/a>), ended 0.67% lower at $514.02. <\/p>\n Read Also:Anthropic IPO Prospectus Spends 80 Of 261 Pages On Risk, Warns AI Could Pose ‘Catastrophic or Existential Risks’ to Humanity<\/a> <\/p>\n Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. <\/p>\n Photo courtesy: Shutterstock <\/p>\n This article Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?<\/a> originally appeared on Benzinga.com<\/a> <\/p>\n \u00a9 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. U.S.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":864462,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[28,42295,112,364684,32905,13508],"class_list":["post-864461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-index-futures","tag-markets","tag-s-and-p-500-index","tag-shutterstock","tag-stock-futures"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/864461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=864461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/864461\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/864462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=864461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=864461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=864461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a> Why That Number Matters <\/p>\n