{"id":865457,"date":"2026-09-30T04:06:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T04:06:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/865457\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T04:06:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T04:06:14","slug":"gdp-growth-might-not-last-according-to-economists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/865457\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP growth might not last, according to economists"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its third estimate of second quarter GDP on Wednesday. Its previous estimate said that the economy grew at a 1.5% annual rate<\/a> in the second quarter, after growing at a 2.1% annual rate<\/a> in the first.<\/p>\n

GDP is a measure of how much output the economy is producing<\/a>, and the BEA tallies it by looking at who\u2019s buying all of that output.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo is it consumers \u2014 you\u2019ve got consumer spending,\u201d said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. \u201cIs it businesses doing investments \u2014 so, that\u2019s investment spending.\u201d<\/p>\n

GDP also includes government spending and net exports. But Kelly said the first part of that list \u2014 consumer spending \u2014 has been resilient lately, partly because of the bigger tax refunds people got this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd then, there\u2019s also just this wealth effect,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re just coming up on the four year anniversary of a massive bull market<\/a> in stocks, and that has generated a lot of wealth, making for a very resilient consumer.\u201d<\/p>\n

Then, there\u2019s investment spending. Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said businesses have been investing a lot in inventories.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you look at a lot of the survey data, businesses are saying that their inventories are quite low, which means they need to re-stock,\u201d Yaros said.<\/p>\n

He also said there has been plenty of investment in AI \u2014 spending on data centers and all the equipment that goes into them. But he said a lot of that spending is boosting GDP more \u2014 in Taiwan, Korea, and other countries that make that equipment.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we have to be careful not to overstate the benefits to growth and the economy,\u201d Yaros said, \u201cbecause a lot of the AI spending by businesses is imported from abroad.\u201d<\/p>\n

A lot of the factors that are powering growth right now also might not last. Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, said consumers might not keep spending the way they have been.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe tax cuts are going to be hard to replicate,\u201d Miskin said. \u201cConsumers are dealing with higher oil prices<\/a> and higher mortgage rates<\/a> at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n

And consumer spending depends on a strong labor market. Miskin said it will take a lot for GDP to keep growing at a steady pace. <\/p>\n

\u201cI think you need to see broadening of the job gains, I think you need to see people that are moving up the job corporate ladder,\u201d he said. \u201cI think that\u2019s really hard right now, still.\u201d<\/p>\n

Miskin said he expects GDP to pick up in the third quarter and slow down in the fourth.<\/p>\n

Related Topics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its third estimate of second quarter GDP on Wednesday. Its previous…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":865458,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[32263,28,16306,101,1556,38473,162],"class_list":["post-865457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-bull-market","tag-business","tag-consumer-spending","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-gdp-growth","tag-investment"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=865457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/865458"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=865457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=865457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=865457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}