{"id":867313,"date":"2026-10-01T17:42:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T17:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/867313\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T17:42:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T17:42:09","slug":"a-second-rate-hike-in-2026-looks-far-less-certain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/867313\/","title":{"rendered":"A second rate hike in 2026 looks far less certain"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday\u2019s softer-than-expected inflation reading for August and a massive upward revision to Q2 gross domestic product were among the indicators<\/a> that the economy is humming along\u2014and that a second interest rate hike before 2026 ends may not be as sure of a thing anymore:<\/p>\n

The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.3% for the month and 3.4% over a year ago. The top-line number is still far above the Fed\u2019s goal of 2%, but below the 3.7% estimate from Dow Jones.The core rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, was 3%, also up 0.3% for the month and below expectations.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, revised data from the Commerce Department showed the GDP rose 2.2% for Q2\u2014up from its original estimate of 1.5%. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also revised another metric the Fed uses to gauge underlying economic trends upward for Q2.<\/p>\n

All consuming: Despite a survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday that showed consumer confidence at a near 12-year low<\/a> in September, consumer spending for the same month was up 0.9%, per the BEA.<\/p>\n

What this means for interest rates<\/p>\n

Earlier last month, the Fed raised rates to a range of 3.75%\u20134.00%, the first increase in three years. On Monday, the odds of a second hike in October were 70%, per FedWatch<\/a>. That fell to 51.5% on Tuesday after New York Fed President John Williams said there was \u201cno urgency\u201d for another rate increase, and it dropped again<\/a> to 41.5% after yesterday\u2019s data dump.<\/p>\n

Big picture: The new data suggests that, despite high oil prices and tariffs adding pressure, the economy remains solid. But there is one area where the numbers are still concerning: the bond market. The 10-year Treasury bond yield hit a 24-year intraday high<\/a> yesterday.\u2014DL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Yesterday\u2019s softer-than-expected inflation reading for August and a massive upward revision to Q2 gross domestic product were among…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":867314,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[28,101],"class_list":["post-867313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=867313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867313\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/867314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=867313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=867313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=867313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}