The oldest cohort that Epic\u2019s researchers looked at, elder Gen Xers born between 1968 and 1975, contracted shingles at an average rate of 181.9 cases per 10,000 people, roughly 26 times that of the youngest adults born between 2006 and 2008. For millennials born between 1986 and 1990, that rate dropped down by more than half to 76.7 cases per 10,000 people. But the sharpest decline came right at the boundary at which America\u2019s 1995 policy became standard for newborns. In what\u2019s undoubtedly good news for Gen Z too, the rate plummeted by this point in the mid-90s to just 17.3 shingles cases per 10,000.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat break coincides with the first birth cohorts eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination, though we did not evaluate whether patients had received the childhood chickenpox vaccine,\u201d Epic\u2019s team noted<\/a>.<\/p>\n The right jab <\/p>\n Epic\u2019s researchers, including physician Sam Butler from the group\u2019s clinical informatics division and data scientist Joe Deckert, attributed the clear decline in shingles cases among people born just before the 1995 vaccination policy took effect to the flexibility with which the policy was applied.<\/p>\n \u201cBecause the 1995 rollout also offered catch-up vaccination to susceptible older children, this was a gradual transition rather than a sharp birth-year cutoff,\u201d Butler, Deckert, and their coauthors explained. Thus, they noted the benefits extended to \u201ca smaller effect into somewhat older groups, including part of the 35\u201339 band.\u201d<\/p>\n But the drastic nature of the drop for those born in 1995 and after was nevertheless remarkable. The decline in shingles cases between the 1991\u20131995 and 1996\u20132000 age groups, where the rate dropped from 45.5 to 17.3 per 10,000\u2014a 62% fall\u2014was \u201csharper than the change between any other adjacent cohorts,\u201d they noted.<\/p>\n In other words, it\u2019s compelling confirmation of the theory that early childhood vaccinations against chickenpox carry a lower risk of catching shingles later in life than natural immunity earned the hard way, via infection with the virus out in the wild.<\/p>\n Rash decisions <\/p>\n Obviously, Epic\u2019s results are welcome data for those hoping to maintain U.S. medical policy on early childhood vaccinations. A bout of shingles can lead<\/a> not only to painful, burning rashes and blisters, but also potentially to long-term nerve pain and other chronic conditions. And this childhood vaccination program has been under threat ever since Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.\u2014the anti-vaccine activist, denim athleisure-wear proponent<\/a>, and U.S. health secretary\u2014assembled a vaccine recommendation panel last year that voted against the routine combination of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) vaccines for children under four<\/a>.<\/p>\n Granted, a U.S. District Judge in Massachusetts did rule against RFK Jr.\u2019s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) this past March<\/a>, preserving this childhood policy in response to a lawsuit against HHS led by the American Academy of Pediatrics. But it has been equally clear from the ongoing court filings<\/a> that the department has no intention of backing down.<\/p>\n![\"Epic](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Epic-Research-Shingles-Cases-2026.jpg\")
Epic Research broke down the average rate of U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, who had shingles diagnosed between January 2019 and June 2026 per 10,000 patients across age groups. Credit: Epic Research <\/p>\n