shaping up to be competitive<\/a> in the midterms as Latino voters\u2019 preferences have changed. Statewide races in Texas, Nevada and more will also be shaped by the evolving Latino vote, though it will not move as one bloc everywhere in the country.<\/p>\nThe poll results, collected Sept. 21-28, \u201cindicate a striking reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to trouble ahead for Republican candidates in the midterms,\u201d said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his firm, Public Opinion Strategies. Latino voters comprised around a tenth of the total vote in recent midterm elections.<\/p>\n
Roberts referred to Latino voters as \u201cthe swingiest of swing groups,\u201d calling the reversal since 2024 \u201cstunning.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we can really say from this data is that 2024 was the outlier,\u201d he said, adding: \u201cTrump is a central figure. He\u2019s had real consequences on our politics, and without his presence, I think none of these changes would be evident in the data among Latinos.\u201d<\/p>\n
But the results among Latino voters are not all good news for Democrats, who have not seen their party\u2019s image improve in two years. And while Democrats have a midterm lead, Republicans are pulling more Latino support than in any NBC News poll before the 2024 election cycle, too, dating back to 2012.<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite a more favorable environment for Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven largely more by opposition to Trump and the economic environment than by support for Democrats,\u201d Arroyo-Cardona said.<\/p>\n
Trump struggles<\/p>\n
Latino voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the president\u2019s handling of the cost of living (78%), the economy (74%), foreign policy (68%) and immigration (69%). Trump\u2019s best issue of the five tested is border security \u2014 where 39% approve and 58% disapprove of his handling.<\/p>\n
His marks on foreign policy, the economy and cost of living are significantly lower than where then-President Joe Biden sat with Latino voters in September 2022, when Democrats had a better-than-expected midterm result despite losing control of the House. Then, 60% disapproved of Biden\u2019s handling of the cost of living and 54% disapproved of his handling of the economy.<\/p>\n
Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Latino voters say the president\u2019s policies have hurt economic conditions, compared with 23% who say his policies have helped and 11% who say they haven\u2019t made much of a difference.<\/p>\n
Among Latino independents, just 10% believe his policies have helped the economy, while 72% believe his policies have hurt it.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, inflation and the cost of living ranked as the most important issue to 33% of Latino voters. That made it the top issue in the survey \u2014 and a majority (52%) ranked it as the most or second-most important issue.<\/p>\n
Latino voters who say the cost of living is the most important issue also prefer a Democratic Congress by 22 points. That\u2019s a shift from the 2024 poll, when Republicans had a 4-point edge among these voters.<\/p>\n
A sizable majority of Latinos (63%) say their family\u2019s income is falling behind the cost of living, while 25% say it is staying even and 11% say it is going up faster than the cost of living, similar to findings in 2024.<\/p>\n
Luisa Santiago, a 59-year-old Florida retiree who participated in the survey, told NBC News in a subsequent interview that she voted for Trump in 2024 after a lifetime of voting for Democrats and convinced many of her friends to do the same. She was frustrated with the Democrats on the economy and on transgender issues.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt was a big deal when we voted for Republicans, and then we feel like it was a complete mistake,\u201d she said, calling Trump a \u201cdisappointment.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m more embarrassed than my friends because I was the one who convinced them to vote for him,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
Santiago lambasted the president\u2019s deportation policies as \u201cbrutal\u201d and \u201ccold,\u201d while also saying the difficult economic climate is weighing heavily on her and her family.<\/p>\n
While immigration didn\u2019t rank as highly on the priority list, Latino voters expressed similar frustration with Trump\u2019s hard-edged deportation policies.<\/p>\n
Two-thirds say Trump\u2019s immigration enforcement measures have gone too far, 22% say he\u2019s struck the right approach, and 9% say he hasn\u2019t gone far enough.<\/p>\n
While 83% support deporting all undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes, just 37% support deporting every undocumented immigrant in the U.S.<\/p>\n
Roberts, the Republican pollster, pointed to the difference between support for deporting serious criminals and deporting everyone in America illegally as he imagined \u201cwhat might have been\u201d for Republicans.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is support for a certain level of immigration enforcement, but the Latino electorate believes it\u2019s gone way too far,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
In the poll, 31% of Latino voters say they or someone close to them started carrying identification over concerns about ICE enforcement, while 27% say they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE in the last two years.<\/p>\n
Eighteen percent say they or someone close to them has considered leaving the U.S. over the last two years over concerns about ICE enforcement, and 17% say they or someone close to them has considered not voting in person this year because of concerns about ICE.<\/p>\n
Maria, a Florida voter in her 20s who responded to the poll, told NBC News in a follow-up interview that Trump has \u201cfallen short\u201d in the two years since she voted for him. She declined to share her last name while discussing politics.<\/p>\n
She highlighted frustration on the economy and on deportations, arguing that while Trump promised to deport the worst of the worst, \u201cI\u2019ve had many friends, family members deported.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThey were supposed to be here. They had paperwork, and it didn\u2019t matter. And now they can never come back. One of my friend\u2019s grandpas didn\u2019t even get deported to his home country. He got deported to Mexico instead of Cuba,\u201d she later added.<\/p>\n
Midterms fallout<\/p>\n
The numbers for Trump and Republicans could spell trouble in November in states and districts with sizable Latino populations.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn a lot of the heavily Hispanic and Latino districts across the country that Trump and Republicans did well, and better than ever in, in 2024, you\u2019re going to see that reversal,\u201d said Roberts, the Republican pollster, noting Trump\u2019s tough numbers on immigration and the cost of living.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis entire poll is full of very clear directional signals that Latinos have turned from 2024 and are ready to make a different choice with regard to who\u2019s in control of Congress,\u201d Roberts said.<\/p>\n
Democrats\u2019 24-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is twice as large as their margin in the 2024 version of the poll. But it\u2019s not nearly as wide as the 43-point lead the party enjoyed at this point in the 2018 midterms.<\/p>\n
Latino voters also now say Democrats would better handle the cost of living and the economy by significant margins, erasing the advantages Trump and Republicans have enjoyed in past elections.<\/p>\n
Latino voters favor Democrats to handle other issues, and they break even on which party would better handle border security. More voters also say Democrats are more likely than Republicans to share their values and address the concerns of the Hispanic community.<\/p>\n
Amid the economic frustrations, voters are also more motivated to head to the polls in November. A sizable majority (72%) rank themselves a 10 out of 10 in terms of interest in November\u2019s elections, compared with 54% at this time in 2024. Meanwhile, 62% say they are more motivated to vote this year than in midterms past.<\/p>\n
And a majority (54%) say their midterm vote is meant to send a signal of opposition to Trump, while 21% say they want to signal their support for Trump and 23% say their vote is not about sending a signal to the president either way.<\/p>\n
While the poll results offer plenty of short-term upside for Democrats, they also outline longer-term changes trending against the party.<\/p>\n
While Latino voters\u2019 negative views of the GOP have jumped since 2024, views of the Democratic Party have not improved. Now, 62% of Latino voters have negative views of the Republican Party, a 16-point increase from two years ago, while 42% have a negative view of the Democratic Party, a 4-point increase from 2024.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m still wary about the Democratic Party because I don\u2019t really know that much other than what I was fed,\u201d said Maria, the Florida voter in her 20s, before adding that she\u2019s still leaning toward voting for Democrats: \u201cI feel like I have to put my faith in them now to fix things.\u201d<\/p>\n
She said she voted for Trump in 2024 in large part because her family instilled a fear of socialism and Democrats in her.<\/p>\n
The poll found that socialism remains underwater with Latino voters \u2014 13% feel positively about it and 41% view socialism negatively, with 38 feeling neutral about socialism.<\/p>\n
Cardona-Arroyo, the Democratic pollster, noted that the party has work to do after the midterms to develop a broader message.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat do Democrats do to move beyond this place where they\u2019re running on opposition to the Republican Party, which I think will work in \u201926,\u201d Cardona-Arroyo said. \u201cIt\u2019s sort of an open question of whether that will work in \u201928.\u201d<\/p>\n
The NBC News\/Telemundo poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters Sept. 21-28 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text messages. Overall, 20% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There are clear signs his party is paying the price. A greater share of Latino voters hold negative…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":870642,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[23,3,21,19,22,20,25,24],"class_list":["post-870641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-united-states","tag-america","tag-news","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-unitedstates","tag-unitedstatesofamerica","tag-us","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=870641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870641\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/870642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=870641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=870641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=870641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}