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\n Updated:
\nOct 6, 2026 , 05:01 PM ET<\/p>\n
\u2022 4 min read<\/p>\n
Our college football expert sees Southern Miss and Troy grinding out an Under, while the underdog Golden Eagles stay within a 10.5-point spread.<\/p>\n
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Read our free Southern Miss vs. Troy predictions!<\/p>\n
I’ve got Southern Miss vs. Troy predictions\u00a0for tonight’s Sun Belt battle, which sees the Golden Eagles as 10.5-point underdogs.<\/p>\n
My\u00a0college football picks<\/a> call for a grinder, with Southern Miss finding a way to stay inside the number.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 6. ESPN2 has live coverage from Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala.<\/p>\n Who will win Southern Miss vs Troy tonight: Southern Miss +10.5<\/p>\n Troy<\/a> has won five straight in this series, all by two scores, but this isn’t the same Trojans team.<\/p>\n Troy has scored 24, 17, and 10 points against FBS opponents and is 1-3 ATS, including 0-2 when laying 9.5 or more. Goose Crowder<\/a> is completing just 52% of his passes and threw three interceptions in a 21-10 loss at Utah State.<\/p>\n Southern Miss<\/a> has found something at quarterback. With Ethan Hampton out with a broken hand, Landry Lyddy<\/a> threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns without a pick in a 24-21 loss at Tulane, a game the Golden Eagles led entering the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n Blue Chip Analytics<\/a> makes Troy a 7.7-point favorite. In what should be a low-scoring game, I’ll take the points down to +10.\u00a0<\/p>\n Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account The Under is 4-0 in Troy’s games this season, with an average of 42.8 total points. Southern Miss’s 24.5 points per game are inflated by a 49-point outing against FCS Alcorn State; against FBS teams, it has scored eight, 20, and 21 points.<\/p>\n Troy should lean on the run against the nation’s 136th-ranked run defense, and the Trojans already hold the ball 33:26 per game. <\/p>\n Add two shaky kickers (a combined 7-of-14 on field goals) and a Troy defense that held No. 20 Missouri to 230 total yards, and this total is too high.<\/p>\n Play this one down to 48.5 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n Southern Miss vs Troy combo<\/p>\n All three legs follow the same script: Southern Miss hangs around early, Troy’s limited offense never pulls away, and the game stays in the 40s.<\/p>\n Troy has scored 27 points in its last two games combined, and Lyddy gives Southern Miss enough of a passing game to keep it within 10. <\/p>\n Southern Miss stays within a touchdown at halftime, Troy grinds away the second half, and all three legs cash.<\/p>\n Southern Miss vs Troy combo<\/p>\n Southern Miss +10.5 Southern Miss vs Troy prop: Southern Miss first half +6.5<\/p>\n I like the Golden Eagles to stay within a touchdown at the break.<\/p>\n In Landry Lyddy’s lone start this season, Southern Miss went into halftime tied 14-14 on the road at Tulane. Troy trailed No. 20 Missouri 24-17 at the half, and its offense has managed 17 and 10 points in its last two games. <\/p>\n Goose Crowder has turned it over repeatedly in that span, and a low-scoring first half makes a seven-point margin hard to reach.<\/p>\n Southern Miss vs Troy odds<\/p>\n For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator<\/a>.<\/p>\n Spread: Southern Miss +10.5 | Troy -10.5 For the full slate of college football matchups<\/a>, check out our college football odds<\/a> board!<\/p>\n More Covers college football betting tools<\/p>\n Southern Miss vs Troy weather<\/p>\n Expect comfortable conditions at Veterans Memorial Stadium: around 72\u00b0F with 79% humidity, a 7 mph wind, and a 4% chance of rain. Weather shouldn’t be a factor for either offense or the kickers.<\/p>\n Check out our college football weather<\/a> page for up-to-date info on every matchup.<\/p>\n Southern Miss vs Troy trend to know<\/p>\n The Under is 5-0 in the Trojans’ last five conference games. Find more\u00a0college football betting trends<\/a> for Southern Miss vs. Troy.<\/p>\n How to watch Southern Miss vs Troy tonight<\/p>\n Location Date Kickoff TV Southern Miss vs Troy latest injuries<\/p>\n![\"Add](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1791352817_51_google-preferred-source-badge.png\"){kind=icon}
<\/a>\u00a0TOP PICK
Southern Miss vs Troy Over\/Under pick: Under 49.5<\/p>\n![\"Covers\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1791352817_5_logo.png\"){kind=logo}
COVERS INTEL: Both offenses struggle to sustain drives: Troy<\/a> converts just 34% of its third downs (20-for-59) and Southern Miss<\/a> 33% (18-for-54).<\/p>\n
\nUnder 49.5
\nSouthern Miss first half +6.5<\/p>\n
\nOver\/Under: Over 49.5 (51%) | Under 49.5 (49%)
\nMoneyline: Southern Miss 22% | Troy 78%<\/p>\n
\nVeterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Ala.<\/p>\n
\nTuesday, Oct. 6, 2026<\/p>\n
\n8 p.m. ET<\/p>\n
\nESPN2<\/p>\n