\u201cThis fall and winter could be dangerous, and Californians should take it seriously,\u201d Newsom\u2019s office said in a statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sea levels are already significantly above the official tide forecasts, which are generated years in advance and don\u2019t account for an El Ni\u00f1o. In Santa Monica, for example, the tides were coming in at about 5 inches above the official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as of late August. This week, the tides were coming in 11 inches above forecast. <\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve had multiple phone calls from harbor masters and fire chiefs in Southern California over the past week, saying, \u2018Why is the harbor flooding? We have king tide-like flooding,\u2019\u201d Swain said in a recent livestream<\/a>. \u201cAnd my response has been, \u2018You\u2019re exactly right. That\u2019s exactly what we\u2019d expect to see right now. … And if you think it\u2019s a problem now, you might want to be preparing for what could happen later this fall and winter.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n Scientists have warned that they\u2019re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast this season. <\/p>\n Significant beach erosion has already been reported in Laguna Beach, Newport Beach, San Clemente, Carlsbad and Santa Monica \u2014 which blamed it for the cancellation of a coastal music festival last month<\/a>. Municipalities declaring local emergencies related to El Ni\u00f1o, coastal erosion or recent hurricane swells include Los Angeles County,<\/a> the city<\/a> and county<\/a> of San Diego, Orange County<\/a>, Long Beach<\/a>, Dana Point<\/a>, Laguna Beach<\/a>, San Clemente<\/a>, Malibu<\/a> and Carlsbad<\/a>.<\/p>\n Ocean temperatures off the Southern California coast are now about 7 to 8 degrees above average, Swain said. And it\u2019s record hot in the Pacific from central Baja California to Southern California, he said, citing records that go back to 1982.<\/p>\n The Kelvin wave arriving now is either the second or third one of this El Ni\u00f1o, depending on how you analyze the data, Amaya said. But it\u2019s the biggest so far, according to Swain. <\/p>\n As an El Ni\u00f1o develops, the typical east-to-west trade winds along the equator weaken or even reverse. That allows hotter and higher seas to slosh from the far western equatorial Pacific \u2014 like Indonesia \u2014 east to a normally cooler part of the ocean near Peru, Amaya said. <\/p>\n As those Kelvin waves hit the coast of the Americas, they are said to become \u201ccoastally trapped,\u201d because they have to follow a coastal boundary, with the shoreline to their right in the Northern Hemisphere, according to Michael Jacox, research oceanographer with the NOAA\u2019s Fisheries\u2019 Ecosystem Science Division.<\/p>\n More Kelvin waves are expected this season, and scientists are concerned about whether one could coincide with exceptionally high king tides, a big storm or both, raising the risks of a coastal flood.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re probably going to get at least two more major Kelvin waves that will arrive between November and January, during the period of king tides [and] during the period of maximum potential storm activity. This is again, potentially, going to be a significant problem,\u201d Swain said. \u201cI am expecting at this point coastal flooding on par with the kind of flooding we saw in \u201982-\u201983, \u201997-\u201998, \u201915-\u201916.\u201d<\/p>\n People wade through a recreational vehicle park flooded by a king tide on Jan. 3 near Corte Madera in Marin County.<\/p>\n (Ethan Swope \/ Associated Press)<\/p>\n To be sure, there is always a chance that El Ni\u00f1o may not have the anticipated impact on Southern California. <\/p>\n But Swain and others are betting that it\u2019s unlikely this winter will be boring for California. <\/p>\n \u201cThe most likely outcome this winter is that it\u2019s very wet and that there are some episodes of significant flood risk,\u201d Swain said. <\/p>\n![\"People](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1791417494_453_.jpeg\")
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