Josh Berry +4000<\/a><\/p>\nThe challenge is deciphering Saturday\u2019s practice session. The Cup Series held a daytime practice for a night race. Group A fired off faster on the clean track and posted the fastest laps. Both groups experienced significant falloff, but Group A\u2019s fast laps at the start skewed the data. When both groups qualified, Group B was better suited for the rubbered-up racetrack. Group A appears faster than it is on the practice charts, while Group B qualified better than expected. Beyond the daytime practice and data skew, significant tire falloff is a factor. Tire wear isn\u2019t usually a major puzzle, but it is this week because teams have a limited set of tires. Brad Keselowski told NASCAR reporters that this race could come down to chance. Pit strategy\u2014whose success depends on when the yellow flag flies\u2014will separate the leaders from the lappers.<\/p>\n
Josh Berry did not fire off fast. His best lap, top-five average and top-10 average were slow on Saturday. As the run progressed, Berry\u2019s name climbed the leaderboard. He was strong on the 15-lap run, better on 20 laps, and great on the 25-lap average chart. Most of the best averages were aided by fast laps early in the run, but Berry\u2019s performance was boosted by strong late-run laps. He managed tire wear well, which will decide Saturday\u2019s Richmond night race. Berry is a legendary late-model racer, and those racing series are determined by tire management. If Berry can leverage this skill, it opens the door to significant strategy swings that could cycle him to the front.<\/p>\n
Race Winner \u2014 Cook Out 400<\/p>\n
Kyle Busch +1400<\/a><\/p>\nQualifying didn\u2019t work out for Kyle Busch. All Group A drivers faced the same challenge. His practice speeds might seem inflated, but Busch looked comfortable and confident on Saturday. That goes a long way for a driver like Rowdy. RCR won this race last fall, so Busch should feel confident. His car appears fast, and he managed falloff better than anyone. The No. 8 RCR Chevy led the field in every practice category. That cannot be dismissed.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s easy to count out Busch most weeks. He hasn\u2019t been winning lately because his car has been slow. RCR hasn\u2019t had the equipment. Busch has the skill, but even the best drivers need top-tier cars. RCR built a race-winning car this time.<\/p>\n
Tire wear and caution flags will shake things up on Saturday night. The favorites don\u2019t have a massive edge, and the long shots are likely too far back. The bets in the middle of the pack might be the sweet spot.<\/p>\n