Coastal communities from Newport Beach to Long Beach were hit by significant flooding from large waves on Friday as Southern California braces for the arrival of Tropical Storm Rachel, which is expected to make landfall near the California- Mexico border early Sunday. <\/p>\n
Rachel\u2019s arrival brings the potential for strong winds, rain and more damaging coastal flooding. If the current storm trajectory continues, Rachel\u2019s effects will be felt mostly in San Diego County. However, Orange and Los Angeles counties are still forecast to see widespread rain and isolated coastal flooding as a result of the system, according to the National Weather Service. <\/p>\n
\u201cEven though the center of Tropical Storm Rachel will be well south of Los Angeles County, the significant swell in the ocean coming initially from the south, and then also phasing with a swell from the west, will bring coastal flooding concerns from any time from now through Tuesday, peaking on Sunday,\u201d said National Weather Service Meteorologist-in-Charge Ariel Cohen. <\/p>\n
The National Weather Service office in San Diego on Friday issued a rare tropical storm watch for most of San Diego County, including areas like San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad and Oceanside, meaning that tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere in the area over the next 48 hours. It\u2019s only the second time a tropical storm watch has been issued in California. <\/p>\n
The incoming storm could damage porches, awnings, carports, sheds and unanchored mobile homes, and snap off large tree branches, posing a safety risk, the weather service office said. It warned of hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.<\/p>\n
Predictions that Rachel, currently spinning about 800 miles off the coast of San Diego, will actually strengthen as it approaches the West Coast is unusual and remarkable, said UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain. <\/p>\n
Typically, once storms enter the cooler water in the eastern tropical Pacific they weaken significantly. But a marine heat wave and El Ni\u00f1o conditions \u2014 bringing ocean temperatures 10 to 13 degrees higher than normal \u2014 have provided a more conducive environment for Rachel. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s notable that this is an unusual event that\u2019s being made possible by both coincidence of this early arriving low-pressure trough off the coast of California and the record warm \u2014 and I do mean record warm \u2014 ocean temperatures off the coast of California right now,\u201d Swain said during a briefing Friday. <\/p>\n
On Friday morning, Southern Californians got a preview of what\u2019s to come with Rachel\u2019s arrival. <\/p>\n
Streets on the Balboa Peninsula in Newport Beach were flooded with at least a foot of water during high tide, with the police department advising residents and motorists to avoid the area. The flooding was remarkable even in a neighborhood that has been prone to regular water inundations in the past, particularly during El Ni\u00f1o. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the worst I\u2019ve seen it in my 20 years on the Peninsula,\u201d said Councilman Joe Stapleton. <\/p>\n
Water from a massive swell \u2014 double the size that was initially predicted \u2014 blasted through 20-foot berms erected at the Wedge and washed out roads from about 21st Street to 6th Street, officials said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis swell was very unprecedented coming up that high,\u201d said Georgia Rios, a spokesperson for the city of Newport Beach. \u201cWe knew we were going to have a high swell due to Tropical Storm Rachel, but along with El Ni\u00f1o it really has been a combination force here in Newport.\u201d <\/p>\n
The city declared a local emergency Friday and urged residents to pick up sandbags to protect their homes over the weekend. City crews are pumping out water on the streets, rebuilding beach berms and opening tide valves to help mitigate water intrusion. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is not even the worst that is expected,\u201d Rios said. \u201cIt\u2019s forecast to get even worse on Sunday with rain.\u201d <\/p>\n
In Laguna Beach, Coast Highway and Broadway was inundated with water from big waves and high tide. The typically sandy sections of Main Beach \u2014 where locals often gather to walk along the sand and play beach volleyball \u2014 were transformed into a sea of water. <\/p>\n
At San Onofre State Beach, the road that surfers and beachgoers use to access the iconic spot was damaged resulting in a myriad of parking issues. The beach has been undergone significant coastal erosion in recent years and advocates say it could be hit hard this winter.<\/p>\n
Hurricane Isaias will not be the only tropical system affecting the U.S. in the coming days. Moisture from T.S. Rachel will create the potential for locally heavy rainfall and bring the risk of flash flooding Saturday-Monday from Southern California into Utah. pic.twitter.com\/2n3dZ8qbHI<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) October 9, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n In Long Beach, which has been hit hard this season by a series of back-to-back distant hurricanes, powerful waves crumbled large sections of the boardwalk on the peninsula and left several homes with severe structural damage. Video showed waves slamming against the bulkhead that protects beachfront homes.<\/p>\n The city has already been besieged by an unusually active, El Ni\u00f1o-fueled hurricane season, taking damage from Hurricane Marie<\/a> over Labor Day weekend and Hurricane Polo<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve had three storms back pretty much back to back to back,\u201d said Laath Martin, a spokesperson for the city. \u201cThis is definitely not something that we see very often.\u201d<\/p>\n Officials have red-tagged two properties, including a duplex with three units. Three buildings have also been yellow-tagged after sustaining damage from Hurricane Marie ahead of Rachel\u2019s arrival. <\/p>\n Long Beach has already distributed more than 7,500 sandbags, as residents prepare for what could feel like a very long weekend.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s hard to predict exactly what will happen, but just based on forecasts, we\u2019re preparing for more damage,\u201d Martin said. <\/p>\n Rain timing<\/p>\n Across Southern California, the highest chances of rain are between Sunday morning and Monday night, forecasters say. In Los Angeles County, rain is expected to be light to moderate, ranging from about a quarter of an inch to an inch across much of the region. A bit more rain is expected in the San Gabriel Mountains, according to the weather service office in Oxnard. <\/p>\n Rain rates are probably going to be a quarter of an inch per hour or less, making debris flow and landslides unlikely. <\/p>\n \u201cThere will be a couple thunderstorms out and about, especially later on Sunday. But we\u2019re not looking at any long duration excessive rainfall,\u201d Cohen said on Friday.<\/p>\n A bit more rain is expected in Orange and San Diego counties with coastal areas receiving half an inch to an inch over the weekend and into early next week. Higher elevations, including Big Bear and Julian, could get up to an inch and a half of precipitation. <\/p>\n While tropical moisture from the remnants of Rachel is expected to deliver only light rain to much of Southern California, the Mojave Desert and the Inland Empire could see more significant precipitation.<\/p>\n The weather service is warning that there is a moderate, or 40% chance, of excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding in places like San Diego, El Cajon, Chula Vista, Escondido, Palm Springs and Twentynine Palms. A moderate risk means that numerous flash floods are likely, and that many streams may flood. There is a potential that the San Diego River near Fashion Valley could reach minor flood stage.<\/p>\n There\u2019s also a 15% chance of that occurring in Oceanside, San Clemente, Laguna Niguel, Riverside, San Bernardino, Las Vegas and the California-Arizona border; and a 5% chance in places like Huntington Beach, Santa Ana, Long Beach, Anaheim, Pomona, Victorville, Barstow, and most of Arizona and southern Utah.<\/p>\n Wind<\/p>\n The tropical storm watch in San Diego County means that there is a potential for winds of 39 mph to 57 mph. \u201cAct now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous,\u201d the weather service said. \u201cPrepare for limited wind damage.\u201d<\/p>\n Other potential sources of damage could include shallow rooted trees that could snap or uproot, \u201cespecially in coastal and valley locations that don\u2019t typically experience strong winds.\u201d<\/p>\n The weather service also warned of hazardous seas off the San Diego County coast.<\/p>\n \u201cVery strong winds will cause hazardous seas, which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility,\u201d the weather service said. \u201cTropical storm-force winds could begin as early as Saturday night but are most likely to occur during the day Sunday.\u201d<\/p>\n Flooding risk<\/p>\n Coastal flooding will remain the biggest concern for the region in the coming days, particularly for south-facing shores including Long Beach, Malibu and Point Mugu. Swells will not only bring the potential for water intrusion, but also life threatening surf \u2014 ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet in some areas \u2014 and rip currents, according to the weather service. <\/p>\n Tides in Southern California are expected to be 1 foot to 1.5 feet above what would ordinarily be expected without the abnormally warm ocean temperatures wrought by El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>. The high tides and surf, a Kelvin wave<\/a>, and winds up to 40 mph could all contribute to coastal flooding, forecasters say, though it\u2019s too soon to say how severe. <\/p>\n \u201cEven though the main traditional tropical storm direct impacts will be well south of the Los Angeles area, folks from Long Beach, San Pedro, all the way up through Malibu, Zuma Beach area and Catalina Island, especially south to west-facing beaches, need to be aware that especially Sunday we will see an escalation in coastal flooding concerns, with the potential for some major damage in some areas,\u201d Cohen said.<\/p>\n A coastal flood advisory for Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties \u2014 warning of the potential for flooding in beach parking lots, boardwalks and roads, with isolated road closures expected, along with minor coastal erosion \u2014 is expected to remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon. <\/p>\n The tropical storm watch issued for San Diego County is only the second time in state history such a warning has been issued. The first was for Tropical Storm Hilary in 2023, which had degenerated into a post-tropical low by the time it reached California. <\/p>\n Hilary still brought record-breaking rain to the region, resulting in washed out streets, damaged homes and widespread power outages. It unleashed debris flows in San Bernardino County, flooded the Coachella Valley and damaged roads in Death Valley National Park. <\/p>\n This time around, the real problem will be coastal flooding, said Miguel Miller, a meteorologist with the weather service office in San Diego. <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve got water that\u2019s already high and then we\u2019re going to have periods of high tides each morning and evening and then on top of that we have high surf,\u201d he said. \u201cWe have all these things stacking up on each other and we\u2019ve already seen in recent weeks how just the high tides, even without the large surf, is putting water into places where it doesn\u2019t usually go.\u201d <\/p>\n This comes as forecasters say odds are increasing that this El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> will be the strongest in the modern record, which goes back 76 years.<\/p>\n El Nino update<\/p>\n On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said the chance of a historic, record-breaking El Ni\u00f1o is now 83%, up from the probability of 75% issued last month. The climate pattern typically emerges every two to seven years and is marked by the heating of ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which spurs changes in the atmosphere that can affect weather around the world.<\/p>\n In Southern California, strong El Ni\u00f1os are generally associated with higher-than-average rainfall. Some of the strongest El Ni\u00f1o years, like in 1982-83 and 1997-98, left a swath of devastation across the state. <\/p>\n But not all of them turn out that way. The 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o season didn\u2019t deliver elevated rainfall, but resulted in record coastal erosion<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cFrom the big picture standpoint … all that warmth in the Pacific Ocean means there is a whole lot more energy available to convey to the atmosphere to create those storm systems that come along,\u201d Michael Anderson, a state climatologist with the Department of Water Resources, said during a California Natural Resources Agency webinar on Thursday. <\/p>\n \u201cThere is all the energy we have ever seen available for these wintertime storms to make use of, and that\u2019s why we want to pay attention,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n