{"id":877314,"date":"2026-10-10T09:40:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T09:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/877314\/"},"modified":"2026-10-10T09:40:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T09:40:19","slug":"map-of-states-where-most-people-could-lose-health-care-under-medicaid-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/877314\/","title":{"rendered":"Map of States Where Most People Could Lose Health Care Under Medicaid Shift"},"content":{"rendered":"

Millions of Americans are projected to become uninsured over the next decade as major changes to Medicaid<\/a> and Affordable Care Act coverage take effect this month.<\/p>\n

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Medicaid changes enacted as part of President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax and spending law<\/a> will increase the number of uninsured Americans by 7.5 million in 2034. And when changes affecting Affordable Care Act Marketplace coverage and other provisions are included, the law is projected to increase the uninsured population by 10 million. <\/a><\/p>\n

New Medicaid eligibility restrictions <\/a>for certain lawfully present immigrants took effect on October 1, but broader Medicaid requirements will take effect in 2027. <\/p>\n

Read More on Politics<\/p>\n

However, the exact impact will vary by state.<\/p>\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n

Medicaid provides health care coverage to tens of millions of Americans. The 2025 reconciliation law brought major restructuring to the program, including new work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks. New restrictions also affect certain immigrants.<\/p>\n

KFF estimates that 5.3 million of the 7.5 million people projected to become uninsured because of the Medicaid changes will be uninsured because of new work requirements affecting people in the ACA Medicaid expansion population and partial-expansion programs. <\/p>\n

Those requirements are scheduled to begin January 1, 2027.<\/p>\n

\"PresidentWhat Is Changing Under Medicaid?<\/p>\n

The 2025 reconciliation law made several consequential changes to Medicaid.<\/p>\n

Beginning in 2027, certain adults covered under Medicaid expansion will generally have to satisfy new community-engagement requirements involving work, education or other qualifying activities. <\/p>\n

States will also be restricted in how they use provider taxes and state-directed payments to health care providers.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat jumps out at me is that we’re talking about people who were legally here, qualified for coverage, and may have been receiving medical treatment for years,\u201d Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek. \u201cNow the eligibility rules change, and suddenly they’re facing the possibility of losing that care.\u201d<\/p>\n

States Facing the Largest Health Coverage Losses<\/p>\n

The federal health care changes are projected to affect states very differently, but some of the country’s most populous states are expected to see the largest increases in the number of residents without insurance.<\/p>\n

KFF estimated California could have 1.6 million additional uninsured residents by 2034, the largest numerical increase in the country. New York follows with 860,000, while Florida could see an additional 590,000 uninsured people, Texas 480,000 and Illinois 470,000. <\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThe part that worries me financially is what happens after someone loses insurance? Their medical needs don’t magically disappear. Prescriptions get skipped, treatment gets delayed, and something manageable can turn into an emergency,\u201d Ryan said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd who’s paying for that emergency? The patient, the hospital, or eventually everyone else? Saving money on coverage doesn’t necessarily mean saving money on health care.\u201d<\/p>\n

Overall, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the law will leave 10 million additional Americans uninsured in 2034, including 7.5 million due to Medicaid changes, 2.1 million due to changes affecting the ACA Marketplaces, and 400,000 due to other provisions and interactions. <\/a><\/p>\n

But beyond sheer uninsured population numbers, KFF said the reconciliation law could increase the uninsured rate by at least 3 percentage points in 20 states and Washington, D.C. <\/p>\n

Those states are Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington and West Virginia.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoney may be saved on Medicaid expenditures, but those costs don’t disappear,\u201d Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek. \u201cThey could shift to state governments and hospitals, creating a situation where reducing coverage today potentially produces greater financial pressures tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n

Immigrant Coverage Changes Offer First Test<\/p>\n

The first changes are already arriving.<\/p>\n

As of October 1, refugees, asylees and some other categories of lawfully present immigrants are facing new restrictions on federally funded Medicaid coverage. <\/p>\n

CBO estimated that the Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program immigrant eligibility restrictions would leave approximately 100,000 additional people uninsured in 2034. <\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThe reasoning goes back to the current administration’s focus on reducing what it believes to be waste, fraud, and abuse within certain government programs,\u201d Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek. \u201cHowever, these changes are also impacting individuals who are legally residing in the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n

ACA Coverage Is Also Shrinking<\/p>\n

The Medicaid changes coincide with declining enrollment in ACA Marketplace coverage.<\/p>\n

KFF found that Marketplace enrollment dropped from 21.8 million in 2025 to 19.2 million in February 2026, a decline of about 12 percent after the enhanced premium tax credits expired. <\/a><\/p>\n

Florida had the country’s highest share of its population enrolled in Marketplace plans, at 16 percent, followed by Georgia at 11 percent and Texas and Utah at 10 percent each. <\/a><\/p>\n

KFF also found that Republican-held congressional districts contained 55 percent of current Marketplace enrollees but accounted for 67 percent of the decline in enrollment between 2025 and 2026. <\/a><\/p>\n

What Happens Next<\/p>\n

How many people ultimately lose coverage in each state will depend partly on each state\u2019s implementation. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe larger implications will be increased pressure on state budgets, potentially higher uncompensated health care costs, and more individuals losing access to coverage,\u201d Thompson said.<\/p>\n

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon<\/a> and Sam Wilson<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Millions of Americans are projected to become uninsured over the next decade as major changes to Medicaid and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":877315,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[97,252,9041,253,1341,1342,644],"class_list":["post-877314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-health-care","tag-health","tag-health-care","tag-health-insurance","tag-healthcare","tag-medicaid","tag-medicare","tag-trump-administration"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=877314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877314\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/877315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=877314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=877314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=877314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}