![\"NHL:](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/NHL-Ottawa-Senators-at-New-Jersey-Devils-tagreuters-com2026newsml_mt1usatoday30068210787659627.jpg\")
Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCredit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
Expected goals have recently become a staple of hockey analysis. For the New Jersey Devils<\/a>, however, the numbers help illustrate a concerning story<\/a> that has persisted across multiple seasons.<\/p>\n Since the start of 2024-25, the Devils have scored 291 goals at five-on-five despite generating 363.28 \u201cexpected goals\u201d, a differential of minus-72.28 goals. No team in the NHL has underperformed its expected goals by more over that span.<\/p>\n The Devils\u2019 problem isn\u2019t necessarily generating chances. Rather, it\u2019s converting them. But that raises an important question: How much should Devils fans trust the team\u2019s \u201cexpected goals\u201d numbers in the first place \u2014 especially when the \u201cexpected\u201d doesn\u2019t usually match the \u201cactual\u201d? <\/p>\n Devils tools<\/p>\n The NHL\u2019s Best and Worst Finishers Since 2024-25<\/p>\n The following numbers reflect 5v5 play from 2024-25 through the current 2026-27 season. We measured actual goals scored minus expected goals (GF \u2212 xGF), with negative numbers indicating teams that scored fewer goals than expected.<\/p>\n Top five teams in GF \u2212 xGF (Best Finishers)<\/p>\n RankTeamGF \u2212 xGF1Buffalo Sabres+34.522Seattle Kraken+21.713Toronto Maple Leafs+20.484Winnipeg Jets+18.125St. Louis Blues+15.78<\/p>\n Bottom five teams in GF \u2212 xGF (Worst Finishers)<\/p>\n RankTeamGF \u2212 xGF32New Jersey Devils-72.2831Nashville Predators-69.0530Detroit Red Wings-58.3729Calgary Flames-56.2628Carolina Hurricanes-51.14<\/p>\n Expected goals estimate how often shots with particular characteristics become goals across the league. They don\u2019t guarantee future production or necessarily reflect how well a specific roster finishes chances. For a team like the Devils that consistently converts below expectation, assuming expected goals should (or will) translate directly into actual goals can make its offensive process look better than it is.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t make expected goals entirely meaningless. But it absolutely means the Devils\u2019 finishing limitations must be part of the evaluation. Generating quality chances is valuable, but the Devils have demonstrated over multiple seasons that they cannot be expected to convert those chances at a one-to-one ratio \u2014 or even close to it.<\/p>\n The Carolina Hurricanes<\/a> offer a useful comparison. Since 2024-25, Carolina has generated 428.14 expected goals at five-on-five, compared to 363.28 for New Jersey. The Hurricanes have scored 377 actual goals, while the Devils have scored just 291.<\/p>\n Despite underperforming expected goals by 51.14, Carolina\u2019s ability to overwhelm opponents with shot volume and sustained pressure helps compensate for its finishing shortcomings. The Devils\u2019 ideal blueprint may look more like Carolina than, say, a Buffalo, which has outperformed expected goals by 34.52. <\/p>\n Obviously, despite an 85.66-goal gap favoring Buffalo over Carolina, that doesn\u2019t mean Buffalo is a better team. That exactly highlights why finishing doesn\u2019t tell the full story. There isn\u2019t one universal formula for winning, and special teams and goaltending<\/a> also play significant roles.<\/p>\n The Devils don\u2019t necessarily need elite finishing, but they must regularly generate way more chances than the opposition to compensate for their limitations. That\u2019s not easy to do.<\/p>\n On Oct. 10 against Vancouver, the Devils generated 3.04 expected goals at 5v5 but scored just once. That\u2019s one of 64 games since 2024-25 where the Devils have finished more than a goal below expected \u2014 a whopping ~38% of their games. In that large of a sample, it becomes hard to believe it\u2019s poor luck. It\u2019s who they are.<\/p>\n Some Optimism, But Be Extremely Cautious\u2026<\/p>\n Despite the finishing woes, the Devils currently rank third in the NHL with a 61.77% expected goals share at 5v5 (xGF%). Since expected goals began being tracked in 2007-08, no team finishing an 82-game season above 55.54% xGF% has missed the playoffs. Only five playoff missers have finished above 54%.<\/p>\n For comparison, In 2022-23, they were second in the NHL with a 55.99 xGF% and had their best regular season in franchise history. In each season since, respectively, it\u2019s been 51.63%, 51.37% and 49.87%.\u00a0So that is a major difference, for everyone claiming \u201cNothing is different\u201d with these Devils.<\/p>\n However, that current 61.77% number comes from a small sample and is inflated by its performances against Vancouver and Philadelphia, two beatable opponents, and a dominant third period against Ottawa<\/a> while the Senators protected a lead. It\u2019s too early to assume the Devils can sustain that level of dominance, but it\u2019s a statistic at least worth monitoring as the season progresses.<\/p>\n The team\u2019s shot volume<\/a> offers another encouraging sign. The Devils are averaging 36.2 shots per game \u2014 first in the NHL, and well ahead of Detroit in second at 32.8. Last year\u2019s Devils averaged 29.6 per game; that\u2019s an over 22% increase.<\/p>\n Since COVID, the lowest shooting percentage by an NHL team in a full season was the 2021-22 Los Angeles Kings at 8.2%. The Devils are currently shooting at a 6.1% clip.<\/p>\n Even if they were \u201921-22 Kings level bad, they\u2019d score ~34.4% more goals than they have so far. At the 2025-26 Devils\u2019 9.3% rate, the increase would be approximately 52.5%. Even well below-average finishing could dramatically change the narrative in comparison to the would-be historically bad pace we\u2019ve seen through five games. A reversion to that is a reasonable expectation.<\/p>\n To further illustrate how above-average finishing isn\u2019t a requirement for success, that 2022-23 Devils team also finished 9.52 goals below expected at 5v5. <\/p>\n Ultimately, the Devils don\u2019t need to become an elite finishing team or convert every expected goal. But they do need to generate enough chances to compensate for their limitations, plus receive complementary special teams and goaltending performances. Some of the early signs are encouraging, but the real test is whether any of that can translate into wins. That remains to be seen.<\/p>\n *Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick*<\/a><\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMentioned in this article:Advanced Stats<\/a> Devils<\/a> Devils News<\/a> Finishing<\/a> Natural Stat Trick<\/a> New Jersey Devils<\/a> NHL News<\/a> Sunny Mehta<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Expected goals have recently become a staple of hockey analysis. For the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":881523,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[19928,152839,4822,385,22358,99,257413],"class_list":["post-881522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-devils","tag-devils-news","tag-new-jersey-devils","tag-nhl","tag-nhl-news","tag-sports","tag-sunny-mehta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/881522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=881522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/881522\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/881523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=881522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=881522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=881522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}