Throughout Israel\u2019s genocidal war on Gaza, Europe\u2019s position has, to an extent, been aligned.<\/p>\n
Outliers such as Spain and the Republic of Ireland have long been more vocal in condemning Israel, but overall, the shift from unconditional solidarity with Israel to concern over its conduct has taken hold in much of the continent.<\/p>\n
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Across the Balkans, divergent policies towards Israel reflect domestic calculations, transactional diplomacy, and unresolved identity politics rather than a shared vision for the Middle East, according to experts.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Balkan countries have almost no common positions at all, and so it\u2019s not surprising their positions towards Israel and Gaza are all over the map,\u201d Marko Prelec, analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera. \u201cEach country goes its own way.\u201d<\/p>\n
Prelec noted that while there is genuine revulsion towards Israeli policy in Gaza and sympathy for Palestinians \u2013 particularly among Bosnian Muslims \u2013 most countries in the region take their positions based on unrelated interests.<\/p>\n
Florian Bieber, professor of Southeast European history and politics at Austria\u2019s University of Graz, said regional consensus is nearly impossible.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe position towards Israel is strongly shaped by domestic politics and also national narratives, which makes a regional or even a country-specific position unlikely,\u201d Bieber told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Differences from one entity to another<\/p>\n
Nowhere is this fragmentation more evident than in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the war in Gaza has deepened existing ethno-national divisions.<\/p>\n
Bosniak political representatives and much of the public in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have expressed strong solidarity with Palestinians, while leaders in Republika Srpska<\/a> have been openly pro-Israel, and some Croat political figures have also adopted a more sympathetic tone towards Israel.<\/p>\n \u201cBosniak solidarity with Palestinians is often seen not just through an ideological lens, but also from the perspective of war and being a victim of Serb nationalist aggression, comparing the Palestinian experience with the Bosniak experience in the 1990s,\u201d Bieber explained.<\/p>\n Conversely, leaders in the Serb-majority entity, Republika Srpska, led by former President Milorad Dodik, have openly embraced Israel.<\/p>\n Foreign policy analyst and journalist Bosko Jaksic told Al Jazeera that for Dodik, \u201cThe enemy of my enemy is my friend \u2013 Jews and Orthodox Serbs against Muslims. This religious and ethnic factor allows him to maintain an Israeli connection parallel to his closeness with Russia, while simultaneously performing a new American flip by glorifying [US President] Donald Trump<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Prelec added that Bosnian Serb outreach to Israel and specifically Likud, the ruling Israeli party, represents \u201can attempt to find allies for its internationally unpopular flirtation with separatism, and an indirect way to strengthen ties with parts of the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement and the Trump administration\u201d.<\/p>\n Serbia: Arms sales and multi-vector balancing<\/p>\n In Serbia, the approach to Israel blends defence economics with foreign policy.<\/p>\n Despite historically friendly relations with Palestine and voting in favour of Palestinian membership in international bodies, Belgrade has exported ammunition and arms to Israel since October 2023.<\/p>\n The relationship has also moved beyond exports. In September, Serbia opened an Israeli-linked drone assembly plant<\/a>, underlining the growing practical dimension of bilateral defence cooperation.<\/p>\n Vuk Vuksanovic, lecturer in foreign policy and grand strategy at King\u2019s College London, told Al Jazeera that Serbia\u2019s defence industry \u201chas not been particularly picky when it comes to its customers, and the desire for profit has been one of the factors\u201d.<\/p>\n However, he emphasised broader geopolitical ambitions.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the past three years, there has been a tilt towards Israel regarding security cooperation, while diplomatically Serbia tries to be cautious in multilateral institutions due to its ties with the wider Islamic world,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Vuksanovic noted that Belgrade views Israel as a partner to \u201cacquire the protection of Israeli lobby groups and access to the Trump administration in the US\u201d, especially as the Serbian government faces domestic political opposition.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Jaksic warned of the international risks involved.<\/p>\n \u201cDue to the significant increase in ammunition exports to Israel during the war in Gaza, Serbia risks being accused of complicity in genocide,\u201d he said. \u201cBeyond financial calculations, the Serbian president attempts to use closeness with his ideological, authoritarian, and nationalist ally, [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu, to get closer to Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n Kosovo, Albania, and the Washington anchor<\/p>\n For Kosovo<\/a> and Albania, foreign policy regarding Israel remains anchored to security alliances with Washington.<\/p>\n Under the 2020 Washington Agreement, Kosovo recognised Israel in exchange for Israeli recognition of Kosovo\u2019s independence, subsequently opening its embassy in Jerusalem. Serbia, which had pledged in 2020 to move its embassy to Jerusalem, ultimately did not do so.<\/p>\n Pristina opened its Jerusalem embassy \u201cdefying the stance of the wider international community\u201d, said Jaksic.<\/p>\n \u201cIsrael\u2019s growing influence in the Western Balkans is evident,\u201d he noted. \u201cThat includes investments, and in the case of Serbia, especially military cooperation. This absolutely does not exclude personal attempts to buy political impunity from American sanctions, or to ease diplomatic pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n In neighbouring Albania, Prime Minister Edi Rama\u2019s government has preserved warm political ties with Israel.<\/p>\n Driven partly by operational defence needs, Albania deepened cooperation with Israeli cybersecurity companies after cyberattacks, while aligning broader diplomacy with Washington and Brussels.<\/p>\n Executive rifts and ideological turnarounds<\/p>\n In Croatia, foreign policy on Gaza has been paralysed by a sharp executive rift between conservative Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and President Zoran Milanovic of the Social Democratic Party.<\/p>\n Plenkovic\u2019s government has followed a cautious, mainstream European Union approach, while Milanovic has openly condemned Israel\u2019s military conduct in Gaza, labelling it disproportionate and creating a public fracture in the country\u2019s foreign policy leadership.<\/p>\n Further north in Slovenia<\/a>, there are ideological shifts.<\/p>\n