Winter in the United States looks like it will generally be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily snowier, according to the federal government\u2019s seasonal outlook and other meteorologists\u2019 forecasts. You can thank or blame El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is likely to shift weather patterns to bring more moisture, but with it higher temperatures. That should help erase persistent western drought, but it is unlikely to make northern snow-lovers happy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said on Thursday.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is going to be a winter that\u2019s really difficult for them to find what they\u2019re looking for,\u201d said James Belanger, vice-president of meteorology for the Weather Company.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o, the natural but temporary warming in parts of the Pacific, generally heats the globe. Although it disrupts weather conditions around the world in dramatically different ways, its effects tend to follow predictable regional patterns, especially when El Ni\u00f1o is strong like it is right now. That gives forecasters greater confidence in what lies ahead.<\/p>\n
All this is on top of a US winter that has warmed about 4F (2.2C) over the past 50 years, predominantly from the human-caused climate crisis, according to Noaa.<\/p>\n
The best chance of snow could actually shift south<\/p>\n
While the weather service doesn\u2019t make seasonal snowfall predictions, its meteorologists said much of the northern parts of the country \u2013 including the north-east, the Great Lakes, the upper midwest and the northern Rockies \u2013 should expect below-normal snowfall. The southern Rockies, parts of the south-east and the south-west may get more than they usually do.<\/p>\n
\u201cListen, even in the winter months, it doesn\u2019t mean you\u2019re not going to have snow. It doesn\u2019t mean you might not have a snowstorm,\u201d the National Weather Service\u2019s director, Ken Graham, said in a media briefing presenting the three-month winter outlook. \u201cSo it doesn\u2019t erase the risk.\u201d<\/p>\n
The northern snow shrinkage is also predicted by private meteorology firms. Salt Lake City is the only big metro area where AccuWeather expects above-normal winter snow amounts. Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia<\/a> are forecast to get about half or less of their normal winter snow amounts, the firm said.<\/p>\n And a White Christmas? Consider a plane ride to the southern Rockies, Belanger said. Otherwise, \u201cSanta\u2019s gonna find a barren landscape when he returns in late December\u201d.<\/p>\n A warmer winter can still pack a punch<\/p>\n Some or all of 41 of the lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal. No states \u2013 or even parts of states \u2013 are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi<\/a> are forecast to be near normal. There\u2019s an equal chance of warm, cold or normal in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.<\/p>\n And the dreaded polar vortex with its icy blast of Arctic air escaping into the United States? That shouldn\u2019t happen as much as most winters, but that doesn\u2019t mean it won\u2019t happen at all, said National Weather Service meteorologist and branch chief Jon Gottschalck.<\/p>\n \u201cIt only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the east coast cities,\u201d said AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok, who said to especially watch for eastern snowstorms in late January and February.<\/p>\n AccuWeather is more bullish than Noaa for snow in the Rockies regions, calling for Denver<\/a> to have 10 to 18 days with at least 2in (5cm) of snow, which is more than the historical average of 9in. The company\u2019s overall snow forecast for Denver is still around average, but considerably more than last winter.<\/p>\n Drought relief comes with a downside<\/p>\n Noaa is forecasting that parts of 39 states will see a wetter-than-usual winter, with much of Montana and parts of Oregon, Idaho, Wisconsin<\/a> and Michigan being drier.<\/p>\n