All season long, people have been asking Jasmine Paolini what she\u2019s going to do for an encore to last year\u2019s breakthrough final appearances at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.<\/p>\n
Well, here\u2019s your answer:<\/p>\n
The diminutive Italian just knocked out multiple Grand Slam champions — Coco Gauff and Barbora Krejcikova — with back-to-back wins to advance to Sunday\u2019s semifinals at the Cincinnati Open.<\/p>\n
There she\u2019ll meet the unseeded Veronika Kudermetova, who has been wreaking havoc herself, surprising Belinda Bencic, Clara Tauson and Magda Linette along the way.<\/p>\n
Kudermetova won both previous matches over Paolini, but given that the most recent was four years ago (in Cincinnati, of all places), that head-to-head isn\u2019t particularly relevant.<\/p>\n
We assess their chances:<\/p>\n
Advantage, Paolini<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take a moment to appreciate her uncommon range. Reaching the last match at consecutive Grand Slams — on red clay and grass — requires a diverse skill set and the ability to adapt.<\/p>\n
This spring, the 29-year-old Paolini ran the table on the clay in Rome, and if she wins this match, quietly, she\u2019d be the oldest woman to reach WTA 1000 finals on multiple surfaces in a single season since \u2026 Serena Williams nine years ago.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not a bad comp.<\/p>\n
And while her 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 win over Gauff in the quarterfinals came gift-wrapped with 62 unforced errors, 16 of them double faults, Paolini needed to draw on a deep reservoir of patience to take advantage. Paolini has now beaten the World No. 2 three times this year, in Stuttgart, Rome and Cincinnati.<\/p>\n
It was her third career comeback against a Top 10 player.<\/p>\n
Paolini continues to ride the impressive wave of Italian success. Doubles partner Sara Errani is a fixture in her box. ATP Tour No. 1 Jannik Sinner is also through to the semifinals, marking the first time in the Open Era Italy has achieved that in Cincinnati.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s worth noting Paolini has lost three of her four WTA Tour semifinals this year, but those defeats came at the hands of Aryna Sabalenka (Miami, Stuttgart) and Iga Swiatek (Bad Homburg). Kudermetova has lost nine straight matches against Top 10 players.<\/p>\n
Paolini is a streaky player, and when she\u2019s confident, good things happen.<\/p>\n
News flash: She\u2019s really, really confident right now.<\/p>\n
The two times she\u2019s reached a WTA 1000 final, Paolini\u2019s won the title, last year in Dubai and this year\u2019s Italian Open. This third time will be just as charming.<\/p>\n
Advantage, Kudermetova<\/p>\n
She came into Cincinnati at No. 36 in the PIF WTA Rankings and had produced a 3-3 record over the past two months.<\/p>\n
And then she caught fire, winning five straight matches, against three seeded players and, in the quarters, qualifier Varvara Gracheva 6-1 6-2. She\u2019s into her first semifinal since last September in Seoul.<\/p>\n
The last time she won five straight was nearly two years ago in Tokyo. Kudermetova defeated the No. 2-ranked Swiatek in the quarterfinals and No. 4 Jessica Pegula in the final. It was the last time she collected two Top 20 wins in the same event — until now — and her last final.<\/p>\n
This looks like one of those tears.<\/p>\n
The biggest threat to Paolini is Kudermetova\u2019s service game. Only Elena Rybakina (42) has more than her 30 aces. Perhaps more importantly, Kudermetova is getting great traction with her second serves. She won 13 of 16 against Gracheva and is 81-for-132 in the tournament, a sterling percentage of .614, the best of any semifinalist.<\/p>\n
Kudermetova, 28, could become the sixth unseeded player to reach a WTA 1000 final in 2025 along with Amanda Anisimova, Jelena Ostapenko, Clara Tauson, Victoria Mboko and Naomi Osaka.<\/p>\n
Three years ago, Kudermetova dipped into the Top 10. This is a vital stepping stone to return; a win here gets her inside the Top 25 and a title makes her Top 20.<\/p>\n
In her mind, this is her time.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
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