{"id":884508,"date":"2026-10-16T16:04:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T16:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/884508\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T16:04:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T16:04:20","slug":"alex-ovechkins-concerning-start-to-the-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/884508\/","title":{"rendered":"Alex Ovechkin\u2019s concerning start to the season"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ahead of the 2026-27 regular season, Alex Ovechkin<\/a> suffered a lower-body injury and didn\u2019t appear in a preseason game. Forty-one years old and in his 22nd and final NHL season, Ovechkin\u2019s training camp has essentially been the start of the regular season.<\/p>\n

And the early returns have not been great.<\/p>\n

Ovechkin is, points-wise, experiencing the joint-worst seven-game scoring start of his NHL career, recording just one goal and three points. He previously managed three points through seven games during the lockout-shortened 2012\u201313 season, before recovering to win the Maurice \u201cRocket\u201d Richard and Hart Trophies.<\/p>\n

Alex Ovechkin\u2019s First Seven Games by NHL Season<\/p>\n

Rank
\nSeason
\nGoals
\nAssists
\nPoints
\nShots<\/p>\n

T-1
\n2026\u201327
\n1
\n2
\n3
\n10<\/p>\n

T-1
\n2012\u201313
\n2
\n1
\n3
\n22<\/p>\n

3
\n2008\u201309
\n2
\n2
\n4
\n37<\/p>\n

T-4
\n2025\u201326
\n1
\n4
\n5
\n16<\/p>\n

T-4
\n2024\u201325
\n2
\n3
\n5
\n21<\/p>\n

T-4
\n2016\u201317
\n4
\n1
\n5
\n29<\/p>\n

The bigger concern, however, is his five-on-five analytics, which suggest he is bordering on unplayable.<\/p>\n

Through Washington\u2019s first seven games, the Capitals have been out-attempted 80-50, out-chanced 35-21, and surrendered 21 high-danger chances while creating just 11 of their own with Ovechkin on the ice. The expected-goals numbers paint an even uglier picture, with opponents holding a jaw-dropping 5.02-1.99 advantage, despite Ovechkin getting no defensive-zone starts.<\/p>\n

That leaves Ovechkin with a 28.4 percent expected-goals percentage, the worst mark on the Capitals among the 16 skaters who have played at least 60 minutes at five-on-five this season.<\/p>\n

Capitals 2026\u201327 Five-on-Five Expected Goals Rankings<\/p>\n

Among Capitals skaters who have appeared in at least 60 five-on-five minutes, per Natural Stat Trick<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Rank
\nPlayer
\nxGF
\nxGA
\nxG%<\/p>\n

1
\nAlex Ovechkin
\n1.99
\n5.02
\n28.41%<\/p>\n

2
\nIlya Protas
\n2.21
\n4.06
\n35.22%<\/p>\n

3
\nAnthony Beauvillier
\n2.60
\n4.00
\n39.41%<\/p>\n

4
\nAliaksei Protas
\n3.12
\n4.15
\n42.94%<\/p>\n

5
\nTimothy Liljegren
\n5.45
\n7.10
\n43.42%<\/p>\n

6
\nRyan Leonard
\n4.60
\n5.44
\n45.85%<\/p>\n

7
\nVincent Desharnais
\n4.03
\n4.51
\n47.21%<\/p>\n

8
\nBoone Jenner
\n4.30
\n4.54
\n48.64%<\/p>\n

9
\nJakob Chychrun
\n7.58
\n7.91
\n48.93%<\/p>\n

10
\nMartin Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1ry
\n4.66
\n4.83
\n49.09%<\/p>\n

11
\nJustin Sourdif
\n3.49
\n3.19
\n52.24%<\/p>\n

12
\nDylan Strome
\n4.55
\n3.85
\n54.13%<\/p>\n

13
\nJordan Kyrou
\n4.16
\n3.50
\n54.31%<\/p>\n

14
\nCole Hutson
\n6.69
\n5.07
\n56.91%<\/p>\n

15
\nTom Wilson
\n5.39
\n3.76
\n58.95%<\/p>\n

16
\nAlex Tuch
\n5.99
\n3.88
\n60.71%<\/p>\n

The numbers don\u2019t look much better when compared to the rest of the NHL. Among the 308 forwards who have played at least 60 five-on-five minutes, Ovechkin ranks 299th in expected-goals percentage, 292nd in shot-attempt percentage, 283rd in scoring-chance percentage, and 282nd in high-danger chance percentage.<\/p>\n

How Alex Ovechkin Ranks Through Seven Games (5-on-5)<\/p>\n

Statistic
\nPercentage
\nCapitals Rank
\nNHL Forwards Rank
\nNHL Skaters Rank<\/p>\n

Shot Attempts
\n38.5%
\n16th of 16
\n292nd of 308
\n460th of 487<\/p>\n

Scoring Chances
\n37.5%
\n15th of 16
\n283rd of 308
\n442nd of 487<\/p>\n

High-Danger Chances
\n34.4%
\n14th of 16
\n282nd of 308
\n446th of 487<\/p>\n

Expected Goals
\n28.4%
\n16th of 16
\n299th of 308
\n476th of 487<\/p>\n

Per Natural Stat Trick<\/a>. All statistics represent unadjusted five-on-five on-ice percentages. Rankings include players with at least 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time through October 14, 2026.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s especially concerning is that these struggles have come despite very favorable deployment. Ovechkin has started 15 shifts in the offensive zone and not received a single start in the defensive zone at five-on-five. He\u2019s arguably been the most protected player in the NHL the past two seasons<\/a>.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s this. When Ovechkin\u2019s longtime centerman Nicklas Backstrom stepped away from the team in 2023-24 due to hip-related issues<\/a>, he played just eight games. In those October appearances, Backstrom posted just one point, an assist, but his five-on-five numbers were better than Ovechkin\u2019s despite playing center, an even more exposing and demanding position.<\/p>\n

Nicklas Backstrom (2023\u201324) vs. Alex Ovechkin (2026\u201327): Five-on-Five Statistics<\/p>\n

Statistic
\nNicklas Backstrom
\nAlex Ovechkin<\/p>\n

Games Played
\n8
\n7<\/p>\n

5v5 Ice Time
\n96:46
\n66:35<\/p>\n

Shot Attempts (For\u2013Against)
\n79\u201388
\n50\u201380<\/p>\n

Shot Attempts %
\n47.3%
\n38.5%<\/p>\n

Scoring Chances (For\u2013Against)
\n30\u201343
\n21\u201335<\/p>\n

Scoring Chance %
\n41.1%
\n37.5%<\/p>\n

High-Danger Chances (For\u2013Against)
\n11\u201316
\n11\u201321<\/p>\n

High-Danger Chance %
\n40.7%
\n34.4%<\/p>\n

Expected Goals (For\u2013Against)
\n3.11\u20134.26
\n1.99\u20135.02<\/p>\n

Expected Goals %
\n42.2%
\n28.4%<\/p>\n

Expected Goals Against\/60
\n2.64
\n4.52<\/p>\n

Actual Goals (For\u2013Against)
\n1\u20134
\n6\u20132<\/p>\n

Offensive\/Defensive Zone Starts
\n20\u201311
\n15\u20130<\/p>\n

Yet, while Ovechkin\u2019s analytics are not great, there are reasons to be optimistic beyond the context of him finding his game legs after injury. While the Capitals are being shelled in Ovechkin\u2019s five-on-five minutes, they\u2019ve outscored opponents 6-2, partly fueled by converting 30 percent of their shots with him on the ice. That sort of finishing rate is highly unlikely to last over an entire season, but it does suggest that Ovechkin\u2019s offensive instincts and hockey sense remain elite.<\/p>\n

Ovechkin has also started the previous two seasons slowly, and by year\u2019s end he finished with 44 and 32 goals, respectively. His shot appears to be just as hard and lethal as before. He has a penchant for proving doubters wrong \u2014 not some of the time \u2014 but every time, and I have learned that lesson.<\/p>\n

Then two of Ovechkin\u2019s first seven games this season have come in the back end of back-to-backs against the Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> and the Montreal Canadiens<\/a>. The Capitals have also played twice against the defending champion Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ovechkin has gladly accepted a more limited role \u2014 he\u2019s averaging a career-low 13:56 of ice time, which is over three minutes fewer per game than his last three seasons \u2014 and Spencer Carbery, the Capitals\u2019 very statistically aware head coach, appeared happy with his play and his usage after the team\u2019s 5-4 win over the Montreal Canadiens despite the Capitals getting out-attempted 11-4, out-chanced 5-0, and out-high-danger-chanced 2-0 in his five-on-five minutes.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat did he play tonight? 13? I think he\u2019s in a spot where I don\u2019t have to worry,\u201d Carbery said when asked how he approaches load management with Ovechkin, especially in back-to-backs, by RMNB\u2019s Katie Adler. \u201cLike, if he was playing 18, 19 minutes, (I) might have to worry. But right around this 13, 14, 15 (minutes), depending on how special teams are, (I\u2019m) comfortable with that. And I thought he looked good tonight.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ovechkin\u2019s line was on the ice late in the third period when Justin Holl<\/a> sent a shot past Jakub Dobes<\/a>, giving the Capitals a 4-3 lead. At first, Ovechkin appeared to deflect the puck, but slow-motion replays showed he did not.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe undercover play that he makes on that goal\u2026 is to play in the neutral zone right by our bench,\u201d Carbery said. \u201cA lot of guys would grab that puck and just rip it in, which nothing wrong with that, but he realized he\u2019s got a little bit more time. So he makes the pass. I think it was to Miro. I\u2019ll have to watch it again. But I just remember that\u2019s a really good play to keep the puck alive. Then we go in and are able to retrieve the forechecked puck. So, not answering your question, but I liked what he did tonight. And I think his minutes and him playing in the back-to-back, he was fine with it.\u201d<\/p>\n

While Carbery partially evaded Katie\u2019s question, there\u2019s no hiding from the tough internal questions the Capitals are facing and going to have to answer to themselves soon. Ovechkin is three games away from a $4.75 million performance bonus<\/a> if he appears in 10 games this season. One expects Ovechkin to receive that and the team to bet on their captain.<\/p>\n

But two weeks into the season, concerns remain: Is Ovechkin playable right now? Will Ovechkin\u2019s five-on-five analytics even out? Does Ovechkin need more aggressive load management to make it through the year?<\/p>\n

Because if this team wants to play for a Stanley Cup, this is something that has to be further managed and reevaluated when you see numbers like this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ahead of the 2026-27 regular season, Alex Ovechkin suffered a lower-body injury and didn\u2019t appear in a preseason…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":884509,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[385,99],"class_list":["post-884508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=884508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/884509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=884508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=884508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=884508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}