{"id":88857,"date":"2025-08-17T05:32:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-17T05:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/88857\/"},"modified":"2025-08-17T05:32:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-17T05:32:10","slug":"deer-math-new-estimate-counts-26000-axis-deer-on-maui-9-in-10-may-be-female-maui-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/88857\/","title":{"rendered":"Deer math: New estimate counts 26,000 axis deer on Maui, 9 in 10 may be female : Maui Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Jeff-Bagshaw_DLNR-DoFAW_2025_08_13-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-497246\"\/>Jeff Bagshaw, information and education specialist at the Hawai\u2018i Department of Land and Natural Resources\u2019 Division of Forestry and Wildlife, speaks during his presentation at the Invasive Species Meeting on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025, at UH Maui College. He gave updates on the status of axis deer and management strategies for Maui. (Photo credit: Teya Penniman \/ Maui Invasive Species Committee)<\/p>\n<p>Maui\u2019s axis deer population is booming, raising concerns for forests, watersheds and farms. At a recent Invasive Species Meeting, Jeff Bagshaw of the Hawai\u2018i Division of Forestry and Wildlife (DOFAW Maui Branch urged hunters to prioritize culling to keep the herd in check.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a lifelong vegetarian who does not own a gun, kill everything that is on four deer legs,\u201d said Bagshaw.<\/p>\n<p>Bagshaw\u2019s blunt advice came Wednesday before dozens of conservationists at an Invasive Species Meeting on Maui. The state agency DOFAW has dual missions\u2014protecting wildlife while managing natural resources\u2014and sometimes that means sending conflicting messages. In this case: don\u2019t hesitate to kill female axis deer in Hawai\u02bbi.<\/p>\n<p>The deer, introduced to Hawai\u02bbi for hunting over a century ago, are now considered one of the state\u2019s most destructive invasive mammals. The state, county, ranchers, farmers, hunters and conservation groups remain divided on how to control herds that damage crops, deplete water, worsen erosion and raise wildfire risks. <\/p>\n<p>To reach a \u201csustainable\u201d population, DOFAW says the herd must be culled faster than it reproduces, and the broader understanding is this is not happening in Maui County. The agency estimates Hawai\u2018i\u2019s herds grow by 20% annually, reiterated based on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2024\/01\/maui-has-an-axis-deer-problem-so-the-state-has-put-a-price-on-their-tails\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.civilbeat.org\/2024\/01\/maui-has-an-axis-deer-problem-so-the-state-has-put-a-price-on-their-tails\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">previous reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not exact science, but \u201cit\u2019s the best estimate we\u2019ve got,\u201d Bagshaw said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The axis deer aren\u2019t going away anytime soon, he added. Topography, breeding dynamics and biological math mean Maui will never \u2018run out\u2019 of deer.<\/p>\n<p>Gender imbalance drives much of the growth in Maui County.<\/p>\n<p>In their native range\u2014India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka\u2014herds are roughly 40% males and 60% females. In Hawai\u2018i, Bagshaw says various factors, including selective hunting, have pushed the ratio to about <a href=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/bf9d18ceb94744a79f9722dc1f6741db\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/bf9d18ceb94744a79f9722dc1f6741db\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">nine females for every male.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>That imbalance accelerates population growth, Bagshaw said, but management isn\u2019t just about numbers; it\u2019s about biology and hunting culture. <\/p>\n<p>Hunters often prioritize males\u2014the \u201ctrophy\u201d bucks\u2014and this has backfired. When males are overharvested, the remaining bucks have abundant mating opportunities and less competition, allowing populations to continue and even accelerate.<\/p>\n<p>ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD<\/p>\n<p>Effective population control targets females first, because removing breeding does directly reduces future generations.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople always point to us and say, \u2018what are you government people doing?\u2019\u201d Bagshaw said. \u201cI turn it back and say, as a hunter, what are you doing as an individual?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn Texas, Australia, they have a hunting culture whereby you don\u2019t take a buck. You do not hunt a male, unless you have already taken five does and\/or five immature individuals.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Axis deer have uniquely fast reproductive cycles: females breed at six months, can have twins, become pregnant again within weeks and remain in estrus year-round. Males can breed year-round as well. With lifespans of 10 years or more, a single doe can produce 10\u201315 fawns.<\/p>\n<p>They originally evolved in landscapes with nine natural predators, and \u201cnone of those predators say, \u2018I can\u2019t kill Bambi,&#8217;\u201d Bagshaw said.<\/p>\n<p>New 2025 axis deer population survey holds some \u2018good news\u2019<\/p>\n<p>ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD<\/p>\n<p>As of August 2025, Maui has an estimated 26,330 deer, Moloka\u02bbi 18,629 and L\u0101na\u02bbi 2,682. Using drones, heat-sensing technology, AI, and traditional surveys, the Department of Forestry and Wildlife mapped roughly 80% of Maui County, and presented its \u201c2025 Axis Deer Population Survey Maui Nui\u201d at the Invasive Species Meeting on Maui, Aug. 13, 2025.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"576\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/IMG_9656-576x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-497249\" style=\"width:586px;height:auto\"\/>The latest Maui axis deer survey is shown at an Invasive Species Meeting, with deer herds represented as black dots on the map. These surveys take about two months, and may represent clusters while missing smaller herds in certain areas. Improved deer fencing is contributing to more-accurate reports over the years. (Credit: JD Pells \/ Maui Now)<\/p>\n<p>Bagshaw called the survey results \u201cgood news\u201d with still \u201ca ways to go.\u201d In 2021, the county-wide population <a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.globalfutures.asu.edu\/food\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2024\/03\/AxisDeer_Capstone_3.4.24.pdf\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/cdn.globalfutures.asu.edu\/food\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2024\/03\/AxisDeer_Capstone_3.4.24.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">estimate<\/a> was as high as 167,000, compared to 47,641 today, according to the graphic he shared at Wednesday\u2019s meeting. He said at least 12,000 deer must be harvested to reduce the population to a manageable level. \u201cWe think we can tolerate 16,000 [deer] on Maui [island].\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said agencies and landowners are focused on what they call a \u201ctolerance level\u201d\u2014how many deer a property can tolerate, rather than \u2018carrying capacity,\u2019 the point at which an area sustains irreparable damage. <\/p>\n<p>ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ADARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe real answer to carrying capacity,\u201d a DOFAW official said, \u201cis we don\u2019t want to know\u2014because by that point, all of our forests are gone.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Awareness is high, but more responsible hunting is needed in Maui County.<\/p>\n<p>Axis deer arrived on Maui over a century ago. Eight animals\u2014four males and four females\u2014were first deposited on Moloka\u2018i in 1868 as a gift from the then-British colony of Hong Kong to King Kamehameha V. Without predators, their numbers soared to 7,500 in three decades. <\/p>\n<p>Moloka\u2018i landowners in 1900 were first on record to cull in Hawai\u2018i, killing about 3,500 axis deer, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/bf9d18ceb94744a79f9722dc1f6741db\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/bf9d18ceb94744a79f9722dc1f6741db\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Hawai\u2018i Division of Forestry and Wildlife (DOFAW)<\/a>. Nonetheless, the non-native deer were introduced to L\u0101na\u2018i, and eventually to Maui.<\/p>\n<p>In 1959, the Territorial Legislature passed Act 10, requiring the Board of Agriculture and Forestry to \u201cestablish deer and such other game mammals\u2026 on Maui.\u201d That year, five deer were flown in near Pu\u02bbu o Kali; four more arrived in 1960.<\/p>\n<p>According to the company <a href=\"https:\/\/mauinuivenison.com\/blogs\/ohana-newsletters\/ke-au-hou-vol-23?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/mauinuivenison.com\/blogs\/ohana-newsletters\/ke-au-hou-vol-23?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Maui Nui Venison<\/a>, there was little public opposition at the time. The deer made the papers only when they escaped their one-acre pen within 24 hours of arrival. A day later, one was spotted in K\u012bhei.<\/p>\n<p>By the late 1990s, their presence was impossible to ignore. The Hawai\u2018i Tribune-Herald <a href=\"https:\/\/mauinuivenison.com\/blogs\/ohana-newsletters\/ke-au-hou-vol-23?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/mauinuivenison.com\/blogs\/ohana-newsletters\/ke-au-hou-vol-23?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">reported<\/a> deer droppings inside Waikamoi Preserve, and DLNR declared an open hunting season that has never closed. Early task force estimates put Maui\u2019s herd at several thousand, with populations doubling every few years and agricultural losses reaching $500,000 annually by 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Today, DOFAW manages about 170,000 acres directly, about 20% of all Maui lands. Eighty thousand acres are designated as hunting lands. About half of those areas are surrounded by private lands and not currently accessible. The remaining ~70% of Maui lands are private, and that\u2019s where most of the deer are.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"311\" height=\"250\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Axis-Deer-9855.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30588\" style=\"width:719px;height:auto\"\/>File photo: Axis deer pictured. (Courtesy: The Nature Conservancy and DLNR)<\/p>\n<p>Even if private land-owners grant access, only about 2,000 people in Maui County <a href=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/bf9d18ceb94744a79f9722dc1f6741db\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/storymaps.arcgis.com\/stories\/bf9d18ceb94744a79f9722dc1f6741db\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">hold hunting licenses<\/a>, just over 1% of the population, per a 2022 report.<\/p>\n<p>A resident hunting license for any game animal costs $20\/year. On Maui and Moloka\u2018i, you can hunt axis deer any time of year (no season), as many as you want (no bag limit, no tags needed) in public hunting areas or on private lands with permission during daylight hours. To get started, go to:<a href=\"https:\/\/dlnr.hawaii.gov\/recreation\/hunting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> https:\/\/dlnr.hawaii.gov\/recreation\/hunting\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jeff Bagshaw, information and education specialist at the Hawai\u2018i Department of Land and Natural Resources\u2019 Division of Forestry&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88858,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[60890,60891,60892,60893,60894,60895,60896,60897,60898,60899,60900,60901,60902,60903,60904,60905,60906,60907,60908,60909,60910,60911,60912,60913,60914,60915,60916,10869,10870,60917,60918,60919,79,60920,201],"class_list":["post-88857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-wildlife","tag-axis-deer-biology","tag-axis-deer-culling","tag-axis-deer-eradication-efforts","tag-deer-gender-imbalance","tag-deer-hunting-maui","tag-deer-population-control","tag-deer-reproduction-hawaii","tag-dlnr-hawaii","tag-dofaw-maui","tag-hawaii-axis-deer","tag-hawaii-deer-history","tag-hawaii-deer-survey-2025","tag-hawaii-forestry-and-wildlife","tag-hawaii-hunting-licenses","tag-hawaii-wildlife-news","tag-hawaiian-ecosystem-threats","tag-hawaiian-invasive-mammals","tag-hawaiian-invasive-species-management","tag-hawaiian-watersheds","tag-invasive-species-hawaii","tag-jeff-bagshaw","tag-maui-agriculture-impact","tag-maui-conservation-efforts","tag-maui-deer-population","tag-maui-environmental-issues","tag-maui-hunting-areas","tag-maui-hunting-regulations","tag-maui-news","tag-maui-now","tag-maui-nui-venison","tag-maui-wildlife-management","tag-responsible-hunting-hawaii","tag-science","tag-sustainable-deer-population","tag-wildlife"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88857"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88857\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}